There is rising concern that several subsystems of the Earth may respond highly nonlinearly at critical future levels of anthropogenic forcing; these levels have recently been associated with tipping points (TPs). It is paramount to identify safe operating spaces for humanity and the planet in terms of these critical forcing levels, in order to prevent harmful transitions to alternative, undesirable states of the Earth system. The mechanisms leading to such abrupt transitions are only partly understood, and further research in this regard is urgently needed. State-of-art Earth System Models appear to respond too smoothly at TPs and have difficulties in simulating abrupt transitions that occurred in the planet's history. TiPES will address these problems from several angles: 1. The project will identify subsystems that may exhibit abrupt transitions, and couplings between them, by focussing on paleoclimatic records and abrupt transitions therein. Novel methods to detect Early Warning Signals of forthcoming TPs, and to make skilful predictions on their basis, will be developed. 2. The potential shortcomings of models in representing TPs will be evaluated; in particular, TiPES will investigate how Bayesian calibration techniques can help enable these models to simulate past abrupt transitions. 3. TiPES will develop a generalized theory of climate sensitivity that accounts for the presence of TPs and feedbacks across various time scales. 4. To define safe operating spaces. TiPES will focus on dynamical system theory and on global stability notions for non-autonomous systems in order to estimate the stability of desirable states. 5. The results obtained by the project will be communicated to policy makers in a manner that facilitates decisions and their implementation. TiPES will develop formal approaches to define the socioeconomic risks of crossing TPs, and to derive decision strategies to keep anthropogenic forcing below levels where abrupt transitions may occur.
COACCH will develop an innovative science-practice and integrated approach to co-design and co-deliver an improved downscaled assessment of the risks and costs of climate change in Europe, working with end users from research, business, investment, and policy making communities throughout the project. COACCH will advance the evidence base on complex climate change impact chains, assessing their market, non-market, macroeconomic and social consequences in the EU. It will integrate spatially-explicit impact models, macroeconomic models with subnational resolution, statistical downscaling techniques and innovative non-modelling approaches, covering market (agriculture, forestry, fishery, industry, services, energy, built environment, infrastructure) and non-market sectors (ecosystems, health). It will explicitly look at competitiveness and growth, as well as at the social and economic repercussion of major global climate change in Europe. COACCH will deliver new knowledge on the impacts and economic consequences of climate tipping points of major concern for Europe, and explore the new concept of climate-induced socio-economic tipping points, at European and national level. COACCH will advance the economic valuation of climate action, identifying short to long-term mitigation and adaptation policy under climate change, including extreme events and tipping points. It will compare the respective performances according to different criteria of decision making under uncertainty, reducing uncertainty around valuation. The project will also produce a new generation of climate damage functions accessible to various users. Finally, COACCH will use a wide range of innovative communication and dissemination activities, to promote easier access to the results and ensure the outreach and impact of the project, and contribute to major international scientific networks and reports (IPCC, Climate-ADAPT platform).
Acrylamide, a substance potentially carcinogenic in humans, represents a very prevalent contaminant in food and is also contained in tobacco smoke. Occupational exposure to higher concentrations of acrylamide was shown to induce neurotoxicity in humans. To minimize related risks for public health, it is vital to obtain data on the actual level of exposure in differently affected segments of the population. To achieve this aim, acrylamide has been added to the list of substances of concern to be investigated in the HBM4EU project, a European initiative to obtain biomonitoring data for a number of pollutants highly relevant for public health. This report summarizes the results obtained for acrylamide, with a focus on time-trends and recent exposure levels, obtained by HBM4EU as well as by associated studies in a total of seven European countries. Mean biomarker levels were compared by sampling year and time-trends were analyzed using linear regression models and an adequate statistical test. An increasing trend of acrylamide biomarker concentrations was found in children for the years 2014-2017, while in adults an overall increase in exposure was found to be not significant for the time period of observation (2000-2021). For smokers, represented by two studies and sampling for, over a total three years, no clear tendency was observed. In conclusion, samples from European countries indicate that average acrylamide exposure still exceeds suggested benchmark levels and may be of specific concern in children. More research is required to confirm trends of declining values observed in most recent years. © 2022 by the authors
The project will encompass the numerical simulation of at least four glacial cycles of the Antarctic sheet-shelf system using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The objective of the research plan is to determine the role of the past development of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for its sea-level contribution of the past and future century. To this end we investigate the influence of past climate evolution, especially the last deglaciation, on its present dynamic state: The ongoing changes in terms of mass balance, disregarding anthropogenic climate change, during the 20th and 21st centuries are influenced by the history of the advance and retreat of the ice during the last glacial cycles. Instead of aiming at a best-guess simulation, we will work on providing an ensemble of model simulations that incorporates uncertainties from climate boundary conditions and internal process-modeling and ice parameter choices. Apart from answering the above mentioned research question concerning the influence of the history of the ice sheet on its present day dynamics, we will also take an important step towards a new generation of projections of future ice discharge from Antarctica: It is important to know how much sea-level contribution, if any, is not caused by anthropogenic climate change. The program encompasses the development and short-term testing of physical improvements to the model that are needed in order to perform four glacial cycles (4GC) simulations and to provide a comprehensive ensemble. The currently implemented climate boundary conditions, both for the upper surface of the ice sheet and the underside of the ice shelves in contact with the ocean, will be examined and expanded to be suitable for 4GC-simulations. Process-based model components, concerning the numerical representation of the transition zone between ice sheet and ice shelf will be evaluated and improved. High-resolution nested simulation approaches will be developed for PISM in order to better resolve these crucial zones in order the further close the gap between finite differences models like PISM using shallow approximations of the stress balance and higher-order models. Sensitivity tests within 4GC-simulations will shed light on how the above mentioned new methods, climate boundary conditions in general and internal model parameters, influence the 4GC-simulation and ultimately the modeled present day state. An ensemble selection process will take place, excluding those parameter and climate-boundary combinations that are not conform to available geologic data for the past and observations of the present day state of the Antarctic ice sheet. This can be thought of as a blind selection of the dynamic present-day state of the ice sheet. By that dynamic state we mean the responsiveness of the modeled ice sheet to external forcing, which can vary drastically among a set of modeled ice sheets that are quite similar with respect to vertical and horizontal ice extent. (abridged text)
Food processing activities produce in Europe large amounts of by-products and waste. Such waste streams are only partially valorized at different value-added levels (spread on land, animal feed, composting), whereas the main volumes are managed as waste of environmental concern, with relevant negative effects on the overall sustainability of the food processing industry. The main focus of NOSHAN is to investigate the process and technologies needed to use food waste for feed production at low cost, low energy consumption and with maximal valorisation of starting wastes materials. Nutritional value and functionality according to animal needs as well as safety and quality issues will be investigated and address as main leading factors for the feed production using food derived (fruit/plant and dairy). According to this not only wastes will be characterized for their nutritional potential, but suitable technologies to stabilize them and convert them into suitable raw materials for bulk feed will be researched. Two different groups of activities will be thus addressed: From one side, replacement of bulk feed ingredients (constituting up to 90-95% of feed weight) will be studied from the starting waste materials. These bulk materials could cope part of the huge amounts of food waste generated in Europe. From the other side, the valorisation of active ingredients as well as the upgrade of waste into more valuable feed additives will be studied. The later constitute approximately the half of the feed cost. The main expected result of NOSHAN project is the creation of a broad portfolio of valorised wastes for feed production. In this sense, a selection of wastes according to their potential nutritional properties, quantities produced, seasonality, possibility of stabilisation, safety and regulatory issues, cost and logistics will be performed during the first phase of the project.. In order to improve nutritional content of feed and be able to fulfil animal needs, waste will be treated alone or mixed with other waste looking for complementation and synergistic effects. The characterisation at molecular level of the different waste streams will allow providing the best technology for the best raw material to obtain the desired nutritional/functional properties. In NOSHAN a variety of high-advanced technologies for conditioning, stabilising by physico-chemical and biological strategies, extracting high-added value compounds and feed production will be tested, developed and integrated in an innovative low-cost and low energy tailor made procedure for valorising food waste for production of safety and compound functional feed. All these initiatives will be validated in in vitro and in vivo tests to the final animal derived products intended for human consumption. Therefore a whole value chain from starting raw materials to exploitable products and technologies will be covered and monitored with a LCA with a further validation using the novel ETV platform.
Objective: The assessment of risks to human health from chemicals is of major concern for policy and industry and ultimately benefits all citizens. In this process, exposure assessment is generally considered to be the weakest point, as currently available tools show major flaws: (a) lack of integrated approach for assessment of combined stressors (i.e. a number of potential pollutants); (b) widespread use of worst-case scenarios leading to over-conservative results; (c) lack of uncertainty/sensitivity tools that allow identifying the important exposure drivers. To overcome these drawbacks, the FP6 project 2-FUN produced prototype software containing a library of models for exposure assessment, coupling environmental multimedia and pharmacokinetic models. The objective of the 4FUN project is to further improve and standardise the 2-FUN tool and guarantee its long term technical and economic viability. Stakeholder requirements will be identified and an analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of existing exposure assessment tools (including 2-FUN) will be conducted. The 2-FUN tool will be subject to a rigorous standardisation which includes verification, benchmarking, documentation and demonstration. To demonstrate the reliability of modelling estimations and the feasibility of building complex realistic scenarios, case studies based on actual datasets will be performed. Improved and standardised 2-FUN software will be delivered, together with supporting documentation and training courses. Finally, based on detailed market research a sustainable business model will be developed. Improved exposure assessment due to the project will (a) reinforce competitiveness by avoiding overregulation; (b) prevent excessive adverse human health effects due to underregulation; (c) contribute to the promotion of sustainable products/technologies; (d) lead to homogeneous integration of exposure health concerns across the policy spectrum at the Community level.
Nutrient loss from ecosystems has become of global major global concern as it reduces the sustainability of ecosystems and because it causes eutrophication of surface water. In this project we investigate whether soil fungi enhance ecosystem sustainability by preventing nutrient leaching loss after rainfall. Background: Leaching of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) from fertile agricultural ecosystems has become of major global concern because it causes eutrophication of surface water with adverse consequences for human health and water quality. Moreover, losses from infertile ecosystems can reduce plant productivity and ecosystem sustainability if there is no additional nutrient input. Hence, it is of critical importance to understand which mechanisms prevent nutrient loss and retain nutrients inside ecosystems. Besides lateral transport of nutrients via soil erosion and surface runoff, vertical movement through the soil profile (e.g. leaching) has been recognized as an important process contributing to nutrient loss. Until now there are no studies that tested whether mycorrhizal fungi can reduce nutrient losses. This is surprising because mycorrhizal fungi are often very abundant in the soil and play a key role in the nutrient cycle of plant communities. Mycorrhizal fungi can forage highly effectively for nutrients in the soil and, by doing so they could prevent leaching of nutrients (e.g. in winter or during periods with heavy rainfall). Aims: The following key questions are investigated in this project: 1. Can mycorrhizal fungi reduce nutrient loss from experimental grassland? 2. Can arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi reduce nutrient leaching losses at high soil fertility, low temperatures and when rainfall intensity increases? 3. Is ecosystem sustainability (measured as nutrient retention and reduced nutrient loss after rainfall) enhanced by the presence of diverse communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi? Relevance: It has been reported that the available phosphate sources will be depleted in about 50 years and some authors suggest that we will face a phosphate crisis endangering agricultural production. Thus, it is of critical importance to understand whether mycorrhizal fungi can reduce phosphorus loss from soils. Moreover, the production of nitrogen fertiliser is energetically expensive and high levels of nitrate in groundwater are of concern because they can pose a significant health risk and have a negative impact on downstream ecosystems. Hence, this shows that there is a need to better understand which factors influence the N-cycle and reduce N-losses.
The main objective of this project is to identify, implement, and assess ways to integrate climate change concerns into the metropolitan/conurbation level of the planning system. Therefore, a thorough examination of the planning system and current climate change response and the scanning for challenges and opportunities for climate change related action is required. This examination allows for the development of recommendations that relate to the institutional dimension (with the elaboration and implementation of innovative planning instruments), the spatial dimension (with the identification of main fields of action and classification of areas with similar challenges), and the conceptual dimension (with the development of climate change adapted and energy efficient urban and regional planning strategies).
To get an overview about distribution, levels and temporal trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) and halogenated flame retardants (HFR) of emerging concern, different types of environmental samples archived in the German Environment Specimen Bank as well as fish filet samples from the Arctic (n=13) and Antarctica (n=5) were analysed for 43 substances (24 PBDE, 19 HFR) using a multi-column clean-up and GC-API-MS/MS or GC-MS. Sample types were herring gull egg (n=3), blue mussel (n=3) and eelpout filet (n=3) from the German North- and Baltic Sea, bream filet (n=7), zebra mussel (n=6) and suspended particulate matter (SPM, n=7) from German freshwater ecosystems as well as tree leaves (n=9)/shoots (n=10), soil (n=4), earthworm (n=4) and deer liver (n=7) as representatives of German terrestrial ecosystems. PBDE and emerging HFR were present in each investigated matrices from Germany and Polar regions showing their widespread distribution. The presence in Arctic and Antarctic fish samples confirms their long-range transport potential. Average concentrations of total emerging HFR were highest in SPM (26 ng g-1 dry weight (dw)), zebra mussel (10 ng g-1 dw) and herring gull egg (2.6 ng g-1 dw). Lowest levels were measured in fish filet samples from Antarctica (0.02 ng g-1 dw). Average total PBDE concentrations were highest in bream filet (154 ng g-1), herring gull egg (61 ng g-1 dw), SPM (21 ng g-1 dw), and zebra mussel 18 (ng g-1) and lowest in deer liver (0.04 ng g-1 dw). The patterns of non-fauna terrestrial samples (leaves, shoots, soil) as well as SPM were dominated by DBDPE and BDE209. Elevated proportions of DPTE and in most cases the absence of DBDPE characterized all fauna samples with the exception of Polar samples. Overall, emerging HFR appeared to be less bioaccumulative than PBDE. Temporal trends were generally decreasing with few exceptions such as DBDPE. Quelle: https://www.sciencedirect.com
The European Joint Programme HBM4EU coordinated and advanced human biomonitoring (HBM) in Europe in order to provide science-based evidence for chemical policy development and improve chemical management. Arsenic (As) was selected as a priority substance under the HBM4EU initiative for which open, policy relevant questions like the status of exposure had to be answered. Internal exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs), measured as Toxic Relevant Arsenic (TRA) (the sum of As(III), As(V), MMA, DMA) in urine samples of teenagers differed among the sampling sites (BEA (Spain) > Riksmaten adolescents (Sweden), ESTEBAN (France) > FLEHS IV (Belgium), SLO CRP (Slovenia)) with geometric means between 3.84 and 8.47 mikrog/L. The ratio TRA to TRA + arsenobetaine or the ratio TRA to total arsenic varied between 0.22 and 0.49. Main exposure determinants for TRA were the consumption of rice and seafood. When all studies were combined, Pearson correlation analysis showed significant associations between all considered As species. Higher concentrations of DMA, quantitatively a major constituent of TRA, were found with increasing arsenobetaine concentrations, a marker for organic As intake, e.g. through seafood, indicating that other sources of DMA than metabolism of inorganic As exist, e.g. direct intake of DMA or via the intake of arsenosugars or -lipids. Given the lower toxicity of DMA(V) versus iAs, estimating the amount of DMA not originating from iAs, or normalizing TRA for arsenobetaine intake could be useful for estimating iAs exposure and risk. Comparing urinary TRA concentrations with formerly derived biomonitoring equivalent (BE) for non-carcinogenic effects (6.4 mikrog/L) clearly shows that all 95th percentile exposure values in the different studies exceeded this BE. This together with the fact that cancer risk may not be excluded even at lower iAs levels, suggests a possible health concern for the general population of Europe. © 2023 The Authors
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