Farm structures are often characterized by regional heterogeneity, agglomeration effects, sub-optimal farm sizes and income disparities. The main objective of this study is to analyze whether this is a result of path dependent structural change, what the determinants of path dependence are, and how it may be overcome. The focus is on the German dairy sector which has been highly regulated and subsidized in the past and faces severe structural deficits. The future of this sector in the process of an ongoing liberalization will be analyzed by applying theoretical concepts of path dependence and path breaking. In these regards, key issues are the actual situation, technological and market trends as well as agricultural policies. The methodology will be based on a participative use of the agent-based model AgriPoliS and participatory laboratory experiments. On the one hand, AgriPoliS will be tested as a tool for stakeholder oriented analysis of mechanisms, trends and policy effects. This part aims to analyze whether and how path dependence of structural change can be overcome on a sector level. In a second part, AgriPoliS will be extended such that human players (farmers, students) can take over the role of agents in the model. This part aims to compare human agents with computer agents in order to overcome single farm path dependence.
Bamboos (Poaceae) are widespread in tropical and subtropical forests. Particularly in Asia, bamboos are cultivated by smallholders and increasingly in large plantations. In contrast to trees, reliable assessments of water use characteristics for bamboo are very scarce. Recently we tested a set of methods for assessing bamboo water use and obtained first results. Objectives of the proposed project are (1) to further test and develop the methods, (2) to compare the water use of different bamboo species, (3) to analyze the water use to bamboo size relationship across species, and (4) to assess effects of bamboo culm density on the stand-level transpiration. The study shall be conducted in South China where bamboos are very abundant. It is planned to work in a common garden (method testing), a botanical garden (species comparison, water use to size relationship), and on-farm (effects of culm density). Method testing will include a variety of approaches (thermal dissipation probes, stem heat balance, deuterium tracing and gravimetry), whereas subsequent steps will be based on thermal methods. The results may contribute to an improved understanding of bamboo water use characteristics and a more appropriate management of bamboo with respect to water resources.
The majority of the worlds forests has undergone some form of management, such as clear-cut or thinning. This management has direct relevance for global climate: Studies estimate that forest management emissions add a third to those from deforestation, while enhanced productivity in managed forests increases the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to act as a sink for carbon dioxide emissions. However, uncertainties in the assessment of these fluxes are large. Moreover, forests influence climate also by altering the energy and water balance of the land surface. In many regions of historical deforestation, such biogeophysical effects have substantially counteracted warming due to carbon dioxide emissions. However, the effect of management on biogeophysical effects is largely unknown beyond local case studies. While the effects of climate on forest productivity is well established in forestry models, the effects of forest management on climate is less understood. Closing this feedback cycle is crucial to understand the driving forces behind past climate changes to be able to predict future climate responses and thus the required effort to adapt to it or avert it. To investigate the role of forest management in the climate system I propose to integrate a forest management module into a comprehensive Earth system model. The resulting model will be able to simultaneously address both directions of the interactions between climate and the managed land surface. My proposed work includes model development and implementation for key forest management processes, determining the growth and stock of living biomass, soil carbon cycle, and biophysical land surface properties. With this unique tool I will be able to improve estimates of terrestrial carbon source and sink terms and to assess the susceptibility of past and future climate to combined carbon cycle and biophysical effects of forest management. Furthermore, representing feedbacks between forest management and climate in a global climate model could advance efforts to combat climate change. Changes in forest management are inevitable to adapt to future climate change. In this process, is it possible to identify win-win strategies for which local management changes do not only help adaptation, but at the same time mitigate global warming by presenting favorable effects on climate? The proposed work opens a range of long-term research paths, with the aim of strengthening the climate perspective in the economic considerations of forest management and helping to improve local decisionmaking with respect to adaptation and mitigation.
The natural capital of forests consists to a great extend of the forests environmental functions for human well-being, which not only include goods and services (source and sink functions) but also include life-support functions that reflect ecosystem performance (ecosystem functioning). Shifting the management approach from a traditional one to one that is more aware of the ecosystem complexity, the idea of 'ecosystem functioning is appearing to tackle gradual declines of ecosystem functions. Within CBDs framework, the Ecosystem Approach has been introduced on account of the necessity for open decision making with strong links between all stakeholders and the latest scientific knowledge due to uncertainty and unpredictability in nature. The Ecosystem Approach is still in need of further elaboration, even though as a concept Ecosystem Approach has been widely accepted. To aim forest enhancement, this approach has been regarded as the most feasible concept for the study area, the Bengawan Solo River Basin - Java, Indonesia. Therefore the principles and operational guidelines will be used to analyse and evaluate the current forest management in those areas of the Bengawan Solo River Basin, in which ecosystem function is the basis for forest development area. This research focuses on ecological functions of forests at various levels of ecosystem management planning, from the forestry sectors point of view.
The present-day configuration of Indonesia and SE Asia is the results of a long history of tectonic movements, volcanisms and global eustatic sea-level changes. Not indifferent to these dynamics, fauna and flora have been evolving and dispersing following a complicate pattern of continent-sea changes to form what are today defined as Sundaland and Wallacea biogeographical regions. The modern intraannual climate of Indonesia is generally described as tropical, seasonally wet with seasonal reversals of prevailing low-level winds (Asian-Australian monsoon). However at the interannual scale a range of influences operating over varying time scales affect the local climate in respect of temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. Vegetation generally reflects climate and to simplify it is possible to distinguish three main ecological elements in the flora of Malaysia: everwet tropical, seasonally dry tropical (monsoon) and montane. Within those major ecological groups, a wide range of specific local conditions caused a complex biogeography which has and still attract the attention of botanists and biogeographers worldwide. Being one of the richest regions in the Worlds in terms of species endemism and biodiversity, Indonesia has recently gone through intensive transformation of previously rural/natural lands for intensive agriculture (oil palm, rubber, cocoa plantations and rice fields). Climate change represents an additional stress. Projected climate changes in the region include strengthening of monsoon circulation and increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall and drought events. The ecological consequences of these scenarios are hard to predict. Within the context of sustainable management of conservation areas and agro-landscapes, Holocene palaeoecological and palynological studies provide a valuable contribution by showing how the natural vegetation present at the location has changed as a consequence of climate variability in the long-term (e.g. the Mid-Holocene moisture maximum, the modern ENSO onset, Little Ice Age etc.). The final aim of my PhD research is to compare the Holocene history of Jambi province and Central Sulawesi. In particular: - Reconstructing past vegetation, plant diversity and climate dynamics in the two study areas Jambi (Sumatra) and Lore Lindu National Park (Sulawesi) - Comparing the ecological responses of lowland monsoon swampy rainforest (Sumatra) and everwet montane rainforests (Sulawesi) to environmental variability (vulnerability/resilience) - Investigating the history of human impact on the landscape (shifting cultivation, slash and burn, crop cultivation, rubber and palm oil plantation) - Assessing the impact and role of droughts (El Niño) and fires - Adding a historical perspective to the evaluation of current and future changes.
Magnetic resonance tomography (MRT) on microcosm soil cores (200 mm Ø) used for CeMiX, comprising naturally stacked subsoil down to 700 mm plus topsoil from CeFiT, will be implemented at a laterally partially open Split 1.5 T magnet, with intended final in-plane spatial resolution of 200 Micro m. Three-dimensional biopore distributions and dynamics of their formation within the cores will be determined non-invasively and compared to complementing CT analyses of SP 2. One major aim is a non-invasive differentiation of the biopores into earthworm- and root system-originating ones and currently air-, water-, root- and earthwormfilled ones, based on NMR relaxation parameters. Attempts will additionally be made to classify different wall coatings of the biopores with regard to their water affinity. Dynamics of water distribution within the microcosm core and its biopore structures, starting from initial values taken from CeFiT (SP 3), will be documented with an in-plane resolution of 5 mm, in parallel to measurements of root growth dynamics for calculation of biomass and root surface area. Special emphasis will be put on the role of the plant root system for a re-distribution of water/D2O (and solutes) between different soil layers. Finally we will attempt MRT-controlled sample collection from the microcosm cores, to get - together with our research unit partners of SPs 4-8 - repeated access to minimally invasively acquired data on nutrient and microorganism distributions in concert with non-invasively collected water and root distribution data as a basis for dynamic modelling of water and solute circuits in SP 10. Beside the microcosm cores, flat rhizotrons as used in SP 3 will be employed to enable measurements of root and shoot hydrostatic pressure profiles with pressure probes, in addition to MRT measurements. In this way water distributions and corresponding driving forces and growth dynamics will be measured altogether in a minimally invasive manner.
Ziel der Forschungsarbeit ist die Klassifizierung von Boden-Biozönosen in ausgewählten Feldrainen. In drei Naturräumen (Lössböden der Jülicher Börde, Muschelkalkböden in Mainfranken und pleistozäne Sande bei Leipzig) werden typische Lebensgemeinschaften von Collembola und Gamasina (Taxozönosen) beschrieben. Der wesentliche Unterschied zu anderen Klassifikations-Ansätzen liegt in der induktiven Vorgehensweise: Biozönosen werden allein aufgrund der Artenzusammensetzung an den Standorten typisiert. Vegetationskundliche Kriterien dienen als entscheidendes Hilfsmittel zur Vorauswahl von Flächen mit ähnlichen Standortbedingungen. Hierbei wird gleichzeitig die aufgenommene Vegetation als ein weiteres Taxon der zu beschreibenden Biozönose angesehen. Die typische Artenzusammensetzung ist das integrierte Ergebnis aller denkbaren ökologischen Vorgänge. Ein Ziel der Arbeit ist somit die prospektive Formulierung von Erwartungswerten für Collembolen und Raubmilben auf der Basis vegetationskundlicher Daten. Es sollte daher möglich sein, dieses Mehrarten-System mit hoher Sensibilität zur Bioindikation von Standortveränderungen einzusetzen. Die Kenntnis der Artenstruktur wiederkehrender Lebensgemeinschaften kann der funktionellen Ökosystemforschung hilfreiche Hinweise bieten.
Dairy farming across Germany displays diverse production systems. Factor endowment, management, technology adoption as well as competitive dynamics in the local or regional land, agribusiness and dairy processing sectors contribute to this differentiation on farm level. These differences impact on the ability of dairy farms and regional dairy production systems to successfully respond to pressures arising from future market and policy changes. The overall objective of the research activities of which this project is a part of, is to develop a thorough understanding of the processes that govern the spatial dynamics of dairy farm development in different regions in Germany. The central hypothesis of this research project is that management system and technological choices differ systematically across local production and market conditions. The empirical approach will focus on the estimation of farm specific nonparametric cost functions for dairy farms located in across Germany differentiated by time and location. A spatially differentiated data base with information on input use, resource availability, as well as local market conditions for land and output markets will be compiled. The nonparametric approach is specifically suited to disclose a more accurate representation of dairy production system heterogeneity across locations and time compared to parametric concepts as it provides the necessary flexibility to accommodate non-linearities relevant for a wide domain of explanatory variables. The methodology employed goes beyond the state of the art of the literature as it combines kernel density estimation with a Bayesian sampling approach to provide theory consistent parameters for each farm in the data sample.The specific methodological hypothesis is that the nonparametric approach is superior to current parametric techniques and this hypothesis is tested using statistical model evaluation. Regarding the farm management and technological choices, we hypothesize that land suitability for feed production determines the farm intensity of dairy production and thus management and technological choices. With respect to the ability of farms to successfully respond to market pressures we hypothesize that farms at the upper and lower tail of the intensity distribution both can generate positive returns from dairy production. These last two hypotheses will be tested using the estimated spatially differentiated farm specific costs and marginal costs.The expected outcomes are of relevance for the agricultural sector and the food supply chain economy as a whole as fundamental market structure changes in the dairy sector are ongoing due to the abolition of the quota regulation in the years 2014/2015. Thus, exact knowledge about differences and development of dairy cost heterogeneity of farms within and between regions are an important factor for the actors involved in the market as well as the political support of this process.
The development of sustainable and efficient energy conversion processes at interfaces is at the center of the rapidly growing field of basic energy science. How successful this challenge can be addressed will ultimately depend on the acquired degree of molecular-level understanding. In this respect, the severe knowledge gap in electro- or photocatalytic conversions compared to corresponding thermal processes in heterogeneous catalysis is staggering. This discrepancy is most blatant in the present status of predictive-quality, viz. first-principles based modelling in the two fields, which largely owes to multifactorial methodological issues connected with the treatment of the electrochemical environment and the description of the surface redox chemistry driven by the photo-excited charges or external potentials.Successfully tackling these complexities will advance modelling methodology in (photo)electrocatalysis to a similar level as already established in heterogeneous catalysis, with an impact that likely even supersedes the one seen there in the last decade. A corresponding method development is the core objective of the present proposal, with particular emphasis on numerically efficient approaches that will ultimately allow to reach comprehensive microkinetic formulations. Synergistically combining the methodological expertise of the two participating groups we specifically aim to implement and advance implicit and mixed implicit/explicit solvation models, as well as QM/MM approaches to describe energy-related processes at solid-liquid interfaces. With the clear objective to develop general-purpose methodology we will illustrate their use with applications to hydrogen generation through water splitting. Disentangling the electro- resp. photocatalytic effect with respect to the corresponding dark reaction, this concerns both the hydrogen evolution reaction at metal electrodes like Pt and direct water splitting at oxide photocatalysts like TiO2. Through this we expect to arrive at a detailed mechanistic understanding that will culminate in the formulation of comprehensive microkinetic models of the light- or potential-driven redox process. Evaluating these models with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations will unambiguously identify the rate-determining and overpotential-creating steps and therewith provide the basis for a rational optimization of the overall process. As such our study will provide a key example of how systematic method development in computational approaches to basic energy sciences leads to breakthrough progress and serves both fundamental understanding and cutting-edge application.
The classical point wise Cornell-McGuire probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which is widely used for seismic hazard mapping and development of design codes, does not allow direct estimation of multiple-location hazard for distributed structures and facilities: what is the (annual) probability that specific level of ground motion will be exceeded simultaneously in several sites? It is possible to extent the classical methodology to the multiple sites problem considering also ground-motion correlation. We study multiple-location PSHA, as compared with the classical point wise PSHA, using Monte Carlo simulation. Specific items are:(1) Development of the algorithms for multiple-location PSHA;(2) Analysis of the role of the geometry of multiple sites, correlation of ground motion, and evel of seimicity for multiple-location PSHA;(3) Study of correspondence and differences between multiple-location PSHA and classical point wise PSHA and analysis of possibility of utilization of classical PSHA procedures for simplified multiple-location hazard assessment.The project is innovative because only few attempts have been made so far regarding our research questions.
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