Evidence is compelling for a positive correlation between urbanisation and increment of allergic sensitisation and diseases. The reason for this association is not clear to date. Some data point to a pro-allergic effect of anthropogenic factors on susceptible individuals. Data analysing the impact of environmental - natural and anthropogenic - factors on the allergenicity of allergen carriers such as pollen grains are scarce, and if applicable only taken from in vitro experimental designs. This study will analyse one of the most common allergy inducers in northern Europe - the birch pollen. Under natural exposure conditions, birch pollen will be analysed with respect to their allergenicity. Within an interdisciplinary research team this study will evaluate the effect of natural (e.g. soil, climate, genetic background) and anthropogenic (e.g. traffic pollutants) factors on birch pollen in a holistic approach including analysis of allergen bioavailability, release of pollen associated lipid mediators from birch pollen grains, in vitro immunostimulatory activity and in vivo allergenic potential. These data collected in the time course of three years will significantly add to our understanding how urbanisation and climate change influence the allergenicity of birch pollen and will help us in the future to set up primary prevention studies.
Water is an intrinsic component of ecosystems acting as a key agent of lateral transport for particulate and dissolved nutrients, forcing energy transfers, triggering erosion, and driving biodiversity patterns. Given the drastic impact of land use and climate change on any of these components and the vulnerability of Ecuadorian ecosystems with regard to this global change, indicators are required that not merely describe the structural condition of ecosystems, but rather capture the functional relations and processes. This project aims at investigating a set of such functional indicators from the fields of hydrology and biogeochemistry. In particular we will investigate (1) flow regime and timing, (2) nutrient cycling and flux rates, and (3) sediment fluxes as likely indicators. For assessing flow regime and timing we will concentrate on studying stable water isotopes to estimate mean transit time distributions that are likely to be impacted by changes in rainfall patterns and land use. Hysteresis loops of nitrate concentrations and calculated flux rates will be used as functional indicators for nutrient fluxes, most likely to be altered by changes in temperature as well as by land use and management. Finally, sediment fluxes will be measured to indicate surface runoff contribution to total discharge, mainly influenced by intensity of rainfall as well as land use. Monitoring of (1) will be based on intensive sampling campaigns of stable water isotopes in stream water and precipitation, while for (2) and (3) we plan to install automatic, high temporal-resolution field analytical instruments. Based on the data obtained by this intensive, bust cost effective monitoring, we will develop the functional indicators. This also provides a solid database for process-based model development. Models that are able to simulate these indicators are needed to enable projections into the future and to investigate the resilience of Ecuadorian landscape to global change. For the intended model set up we will couple the Catchment Modeling Framework, the biogeochemical LandscapeDNDC model and semi-empirical models for aquatic diversity. Global change scenarios will then be analyzed to capture the likely reaction of functional indicators. Finally, we will contribute to the written guidelines for developing a comprehensive monitoring program for biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Right from the beginning we will cooperate with four SENESCYT companion projects and three local non-university partners to ensure that the developed monitoring program will be appreciated by locals and stakeholders. Monitoring and modelling will focus on all three research areas in the Páramo (Cajas National Park), the dry forest (Reserva Laipuna) and the tropical montane cloud forest (Reserva Biologica San Francisco).
The majority of the worlds forests has undergone some form of management, such as clear-cut or thinning. This management has direct relevance for global climate: Studies estimate that forest management emissions add a third to those from deforestation, while enhanced productivity in managed forests increases the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to act as a sink for carbon dioxide emissions. However, uncertainties in the assessment of these fluxes are large. Moreover, forests influence climate also by altering the energy and water balance of the land surface. In many regions of historical deforestation, such biogeophysical effects have substantially counteracted warming due to carbon dioxide emissions. However, the effect of management on biogeophysical effects is largely unknown beyond local case studies. While the effects of climate on forest productivity is well established in forestry models, the effects of forest management on climate is less understood. Closing this feedback cycle is crucial to understand the driving forces behind past climate changes to be able to predict future climate responses and thus the required effort to adapt to it or avert it. To investigate the role of forest management in the climate system I propose to integrate a forest management module into a comprehensive Earth system model. The resulting model will be able to simultaneously address both directions of the interactions between climate and the managed land surface. My proposed work includes model development and implementation for key forest management processes, determining the growth and stock of living biomass, soil carbon cycle, and biophysical land surface properties. With this unique tool I will be able to improve estimates of terrestrial carbon source and sink terms and to assess the susceptibility of past and future climate to combined carbon cycle and biophysical effects of forest management. Furthermore, representing feedbacks between forest management and climate in a global climate model could advance efforts to combat climate change. Changes in forest management are inevitable to adapt to future climate change. In this process, is it possible to identify win-win strategies for which local management changes do not only help adaptation, but at the same time mitigate global warming by presenting favorable effects on climate? The proposed work opens a range of long-term research paths, with the aim of strengthening the climate perspective in the economic considerations of forest management and helping to improve local decisionmaking with respect to adaptation and mitigation.
The natural capital of forests consists to a great extend of the forests environmental functions for human well-being, which not only include goods and services (source and sink functions) but also include life-support functions that reflect ecosystem performance (ecosystem functioning). Shifting the management approach from a traditional one to one that is more aware of the ecosystem complexity, the idea of 'ecosystem functioning is appearing to tackle gradual declines of ecosystem functions. Within CBDs framework, the Ecosystem Approach has been introduced on account of the necessity for open decision making with strong links between all stakeholders and the latest scientific knowledge due to uncertainty and unpredictability in nature. The Ecosystem Approach is still in need of further elaboration, even though as a concept Ecosystem Approach has been widely accepted. To aim forest enhancement, this approach has been regarded as the most feasible concept for the study area, the Bengawan Solo River Basin - Java, Indonesia. Therefore the principles and operational guidelines will be used to analyse and evaluate the current forest management in those areas of the Bengawan Solo River Basin, in which ecosystem function is the basis for forest development area. This research focuses on ecological functions of forests at various levels of ecosystem management planning, from the forestry sectors point of view.
The present-day configuration of Indonesia and SE Asia is the results of a long history of tectonic movements, volcanisms and global eustatic sea-level changes. Not indifferent to these dynamics, fauna and flora have been evolving and dispersing following a complicate pattern of continent-sea changes to form what are today defined as Sundaland and Wallacea biogeographical regions. The modern intraannual climate of Indonesia is generally described as tropical, seasonally wet with seasonal reversals of prevailing low-level winds (Asian-Australian monsoon). However at the interannual scale a range of influences operating over varying time scales affect the local climate in respect of temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. Vegetation generally reflects climate and to simplify it is possible to distinguish three main ecological elements in the flora of Malaysia: everwet tropical, seasonally dry tropical (monsoon) and montane. Within those major ecological groups, a wide range of specific local conditions caused a complex biogeography which has and still attract the attention of botanists and biogeographers worldwide. Being one of the richest regions in the Worlds in terms of species endemism and biodiversity, Indonesia has recently gone through intensive transformation of previously rural/natural lands for intensive agriculture (oil palm, rubber, cocoa plantations and rice fields). Climate change represents an additional stress. Projected climate changes in the region include strengthening of monsoon circulation and increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall and drought events. The ecological consequences of these scenarios are hard to predict. Within the context of sustainable management of conservation areas and agro-landscapes, Holocene palaeoecological and palynological studies provide a valuable contribution by showing how the natural vegetation present at the location has changed as a consequence of climate variability in the long-term (e.g. the Mid-Holocene moisture maximum, the modern ENSO onset, Little Ice Age etc.). The final aim of my PhD research is to compare the Holocene history of Jambi province and Central Sulawesi. In particular: - Reconstructing past vegetation, plant diversity and climate dynamics in the two study areas Jambi (Sumatra) and Lore Lindu National Park (Sulawesi) - Comparing the ecological responses of lowland monsoon swampy rainforest (Sumatra) and everwet montane rainforests (Sulawesi) to environmental variability (vulnerability/resilience) - Investigating the history of human impact on the landscape (shifting cultivation, slash and burn, crop cultivation, rubber and palm oil plantation) - Assessing the impact and role of droughts (El Niño) and fires - Adding a historical perspective to the evaluation of current and future changes.
Although global pesticide use increases steadily, our field-data based knowledge regarding exposure of non-target ecosystems is very restricted. Consequently, this meta-analysis will for the first time evaluate the worldwide available peer-reviewed information on agricultural insecticide concentrations in surface water or sediment and test the following two hypotheses: I) Insecticide concentrations in the field largely exceed regulatory threshold levels and II) Additional factors important for threshold level exceedances can be quantified using retrospective meta-analysis. A feasibility study using a restricted dataset (n = 377) suggested the significance of the expected results, i.e. an threshold level exceedance rate of more than 50Prozent of the detected concentrations. Subsequent to a comprehensive database search in the peer-reviewed literature of the past 60 years, analysis of covariance with the relevant threshold level exceedance as the continuous dependent variable (about 10,000 cases) will be performed and the impact of significant predictor variables will be quantified. Parameters not yet considered in pesticide exposure assessment will be included as independent variables, such as compound class, environmental regulatory quality, and sampling design. The simultaneous presence of several insecticide compounds as a well as their metabolites will also be considered in the evaluation. The present approach may provide an innovative and integrated view on the potential environmental side effects of global high-intensity agriculture and in particular of pesticides use.
Terrestrial green algae and cyanobacteria are typical and abundant components of biological soil crusts in the Polar Regions. These communities form water-stable aggregates that have important ecological roles in primary production, nitrogen fixation, nutrient cycling, water retention and stabilization of soils. Although available data on green algae and cyanobacteria are generally very limited for the Arctic and Antarctica, their functional importance as ecosystem developers in nutrient poor environments is regarded as high. Therefore, the main goal of the interdisciplinary project is, for the first time, a precise evaluation of their 1.) Biodiversity as well as of 2.) The infra-specific genetic diversity, 3.) ecophysiological performance and 4.) transcriptomics of the most abundant taxa in biological soil crusts isolated from the Antarctic Peninsula and Arctic Svalbard. Biodiversity will be investigated using a classical culture approach in combination with molecular-taxonomical methods as well as with metagenomics. The infra-specific genetic diversity of the most abundant green algae and cyanobacteria will be studied using fingerprinting techniques, and a range of selected populations characterized in relation to their physiological plasticity. Temperature and water availability, two key environmental factors for terrestrial organisms, are currently changing in Polar Regions due to global warming, and hence their effect on growth and photosynthesis response patterns will be comparatively investigated. The data will indicate whether and how global change influence population structure and ecological performance of key organisms in polar soil crusts, and help to make predictions on the future significance of the ecological functions of these pioneer communities. Such a multiphasic approach has never been applied before to soil algae and cyanobacteria in both Polar Regions, and hence represents one of the key innovations of this proposal.
The classical point wise Cornell-McGuire probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which is widely used for seismic hazard mapping and development of design codes, does not allow direct estimation of multiple-location hazard for distributed structures and facilities: what is the (annual) probability that specific level of ground motion will be exceeded simultaneously in several sites? It is possible to extent the classical methodology to the multiple sites problem considering also ground-motion correlation. We study multiple-location PSHA, as compared with the classical point wise PSHA, using Monte Carlo simulation. Specific items are:(1) Development of the algorithms for multiple-location PSHA;(2) Analysis of the role of the geometry of multiple sites, correlation of ground motion, and evel of seimicity for multiple-location PSHA;(3) Study of correspondence and differences between multiple-location PSHA and classical point wise PSHA and analysis of possibility of utilization of classical PSHA procedures for simplified multiple-location hazard assessment.The project is innovative because only few attempts have been made so far regarding our research questions.
The AZV (Altitudinal Zonation of Vegetation) Project was initiated in the year 2002. On the basis of a detailed regional study in continental West Greenland the knowledge about altitudinal vegetation zonation in the Arctic is aimed to be enhanced. The main objectives of the project are: a) considering the regional study: characterize mountain vegetation with regard to flora, vegetation types, vegetation pattern and habitat conditions, investigate the differentiation of these vegetation characteristics along the altitudinal gradient, develop concepts about altitudinal indicator values of species and plant communities, extract suitable characteristics for the distinction and delimitation of vegetation belts, assess altitudinal borderlines of vegetation belts in the study area. b) considering generalizations: test the validity of the altitudinal zonation hypothesis of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map ( CAVM Team 2003), find important determinants of altitudinal vegetation zonation in the Arctic, develop a first small scale vegetation map of entire continental West Greenland. Field work consists of vegetational surveys according to the Braun-Blanquet approach, transect studies, soil analyses, long-time-measurements of temperature on the soil surface and vegetation mapping in three different altitudinal vegetation belts (up to 1070 m a.s.l.).
The final goal of the EUROWET project is to integrate the substantial multidisciplinary European research in wetlands to help attain the sustainable management of the water cycle. This will be achieved by the translation of state-of-the art science developed at both national and European levels, into practical guidance for end-users. This will be achieved by a comprehensive review, expert assessment and a focussed dissemination strategy. There is considerable scientific knowledge and technical experience gained in diverse aspects of wetland science and management including hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology restoration, socio-economic and policy analysis. However the results of research and management experience are still too fragmentary and not sufficiently orientated to problem-solving or simply inadequately framed to be effectively transferred to, or used by, stakeholders and policy-makers. Simultaneously the general outcome of the scientific research has been increased awareness of the significance of wetlands in delivering goods and services important for human welfare including quality of life, biodiversity conservation and maintenance or enhancement of environment quality. Despite this wetlands continue to be degraded and lost throughout Europe without adequate consideration of the wider benefits to be achieved from this management. The new Water Framework Directive (WFD) promotes a unique opportunity to redress this problem by means of the holistic, integrated approach to water management. There is currently in preparation horizontal guidance on Wetlands as part of the Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) process. There is however work still to be done on providing more specific scientific and technical guidance on the effective implementation of the Directive with respect to wetlands. This is particularly the case in relation to Integrated River Management, the CIS cluster within which wetlands are being considered in the WFD.
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