Das Projekt "Mapping EU heat supply: Mapping and analyses of the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel deployment (fossil/renewables)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung durchgeführt. Heating and cooling (H/C) account for the major share of final energy demand in industry, services and the residential sector in the EU. It therefore plays a central role in achieving energy policy goals like climate change mitigation, security of supply and competitiveness. At the same time, the official statistics only provide an incomplete picture regarding H/C: Data is often scattered, incomplete or not available. This project aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the current state of the EU's H/C sector as well as possible future trajectories until 2020 and 2030. Main objectives: 1. End-use energy balances for H/C for 2012: A consistent end-use energy balance is compiled for Europe's H/C sector. The results are disaggregated by country, sector, sub-sector, building type, energy carrier end-use and temperature level. - 2. Current state of H/C technologies: This work package gathers information on the current stock of H/C technologies in European countries. It distinguishes technologies in buildings, industry and district heating and assesses the current performance of H/C technologies. 3. Scenarios up until 2030: Using the bottom-up models FORECAST, Invert/EE-Lab and Green-X, this work package develops scenarios for the evolution of the H/C sector up until 2030. The results are analysed with regard to final, useful and primary energy, CO? emissions, import shares, induced investments and RES-H/C shares. 4. Analysis of economic impacts up until 2030: The macro-economic model ASTRA is then used to assess the economic impacts of the different scenario results in terms of induced employment and economic growth. 5. Analysis of barriers, best practices and policies: Based on the existing literature and expert interviews, we analyse and discuss the barriers, best practices and policies for the increased use of RES in the individual market segments of the H/C sector.
Das Projekt "Water yield response to changes in land-use and climate in a semihumid/-arid transition region (Jinghe basin, Northwest China)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Technische Universität Dresden, Institut für Bodenkunde und Standortslehre durchgeführt. The effort of vegetation restoration in recent decades has been effective for soil erosion control, but accompanied by a drastic reduction of water yield in the main tributaries of the Yellow River. This has led to an emerging debate notably about forest development. Increased temperature and decreased precipitation may also have contributed to water yield reduction. An essential key for developing an integrated land-use and water management approach is to understand and separate the hydrological response to changes in land use and climate. In this study on multiple scales ranging from single tree to watershed, water balance components, vegetation structure dynamics, and soil hydraulic properties will be investigated and continuously monitored on selected plots with vegetation typical to the region. Our research will be carried out in the semihumid/-arid transition region of Jinghe which is an important tributary of the Yellow River. We follow a nested approach on scales of plots and watersheds along a upstream/downstream situation in a representative subbasin. On the basis of our measurements, the process-oriented model BROOK90 will be implemented for predicting the water yield response to changes in climate and vegetation depending on relief and soil conditions. The results obtained from plot studies will be used to parameterize the distributed model SWIM. In a next step, SWIM will be fitted to the catchment discharge and to assess the effect of different land use and vegetation management on water yield. This assessment will provide a solid foundation for how much of the catchment area can be changed by vegetation restoration through forest management to maintain a certain level of water supply security that will ensure a more sustainable regional development.
Das Projekt "Black Carbon in Soils - Looking for the missing carbon" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Zürich, Geographisches Institut durchgeführt. Burning fossil fuels releases large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. However, researchers have found less of this greenhouse gas in the air than they ought to have according to their global carbon dioxide balance. Around half of the amount is missing. Scientists of Cologne University have been looking for this depression. 'The missing link here has long been suspected in the oceans. But we now believe that the missing carbon could occur in terrestrial ecosystems, especially in soils,' Dr. Michael Schmidt explains. Around 20 percent of the depression probably occurs owing to regular forest fires. The trees are not completely combustible but are charred. Largely, charcoal is left. Also, there are considerable amounts of soot that eventually rains down on the earth again. Charcoal and soot are simple terms for complicated organic molecules. They consist of graphite-like layers the arrangement of which always differs according to how they are formed. Scientists refer to them with the generic term of black carbon. This organic material accounts for up to half of the composition of soils. It is extremely resistant to chemicals. 'So far, examinations have only covered three to four years. During this period, black carbon is not decomposed at all,' Schmidt explains. 'But if nothing were to happen o it in the long run, we would be wading knee-deep in charcoal.' From this, he concludes that the decomposition rates are somewhere between 100,000 and a couple of years. In order to cover such huge expanses of time, the Cologne scientists have looked for an already existing model system. Although black carbon deposits do not exist in Sung, on the shores of Lake Onega in Russia, a similar substance does occur. A graphite rock called shungite has been deposited there over a period of around two billion years. This graphite and black carbon have analogous structures, so that the researchers can examine the decomposition behavior of such carbon compounds with the aid of the old rock. The graphite deposits cover an area of 9,000 square kilometers, which is around a quarter of the area of North Rhine-Westphalia. What is special about the area is that the shungite is a gigantic field experiment organized by nature, for ice scraped out this landscape 10,000 years ago, exposing the rock with a carbon content. This is precisely the period the researchers examine. It is only since then that the rock has weathered and new, fertile soil has formed. 'It is like in a supermarket. We can take our pick of graphite qualities,' says Schmidt. Since Shunga lies in a wide plain, no material from outside is washed or blown over the rock that would wear away the top layers. So the old carbon structures can decompose undisturbed. (abridged text)
Das Projekt "European Union Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis and Integration (EURO-BASIN)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Danmarks Tekniske Universitet durchgeführt. Objective: EURO-BASIN is designed to advance our understanding on the variability, potential impacts, and feedbacks of global change and anthropogenic forcing on the structure, function and dynamics of the North Atlantic and associated shelf sea ecosystems as well as the key species influencing carbon sequestering and ecosystem functioning. The ultimate goal of the program is to further our capacity to manage these systems in a sustainable manner following the ecosystem approach. Given the scope and the international significance, EURO-BASIN is part of a multidisciplinary international effort linked with similar activities in the US and Canada. EURO-BASIN focuses on a number of key groups characterizing food web types, e.g. diatoms versus microbial loop players; key species copepods of the genus Calanus; pelagic fish, herring (Clupea harengus), mackerel (Scomber scombrus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) which represent some of the largest fish stocks on the planet; piscivorous pelagic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) and albacore (Thunnus alalunga) all of which serve to structure the ecosystem and thereby influence the flux of carbon from the euphotic zone via the biological carbon pump. In order to establish relationships between these key players, the project identifies and accesses relevant international databases and develops methods to integrate long term observations. These data will be used to perform retrospective analyses on ecosystem and key species/group dynamics, which are augmented by new data from laboratory experiments, mesocosm studies and field programs. These activities serve to advance modelling and predictive capacities based on an ensemble approach where modelling approaches such as size spectrum; mass balance; coupled NPZD; fisheries; and ?end to end? models and as well as ecosystem indicators are combined to develop understanding of the past, present and future dynamics of North Atlantic and shelf sea ecosystems and their living marine resources.
Das Projekt "Element cycles in mountain regions under various land use" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Bayreuth, Fachgruppe Geowissenschaften, Bayreuther Zentrum für Ökologie und Umweltforschung (BayCEER), Lehrstuhl für Agrarökosystemforschung durchgeführt. Research question: What is the role of agricultural land use in changes of nutrient cycles and losses dependingon surface slope and climate? Approach: Annual balance of main nutrients for 3-4 main agricultural farms based on fertilizer input, partitioning of nutrients in above and below ground plant parts, output with harvest, losses with DOM and erosion (in collaboration with other TP). The balances will be done depending on agricultural practices in Eger and Haean Catchment and will be compared with adjacent grassland and forest. Obtained element cycles will be upscaled from farm area to the level of both catchments basins depending on specific land use, surface slope and climate. Research question: Can we reconstruct previous erosion and nutrient losses and separate them under forest and under agricultural use? Approach: Undisturbed sediment cores (7 for Eger and 7 for Haean) will be taken from the lakes and soils of landscapes subordinated to agricultural fields. Three radiocarbon data of wood particles at increasing depth for each sediment core will be used as references. The age of the bottom sediment layer should be less than 1000 years. The total content of C, N, P, K, Mg, Ca, Si will be analyzed in individual laminae or sediment layers. Conclusions will be drawn based on the thickness of the laminae, their elements content and the ratio between nutrients and Si. The conclusions will be proven by 13C (vegetation change) and 15N (N input by fertilizers) of individual laminae. Research question: What are the best management practices for sloping uplands? Approach: Measured element cycles and losses under various agriculture practice will be analysed and practices with the least nutrient losses and erosion will be selected. The best management practices for landscapes with different slopes will be elaborated.
Das Projekt "Sub project: Pre-site survey for potential new ICDP sites in southern Patagonia (Argentina)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Bremen, Institut für Geographie, Abteilung Geomorphologie und Polarforschung durchgeführt. We propose to carry out an airgun seismic survey for the planned ICDP coring site (scheduled for the GLAD200 system) at the 1 to 2 Ma old maar Laguna Potrok Aike and a pre-site survey of so far unstudied crater lakes in the volcanic area of the Meseta Cerro Colorado, both in southern Patagonia (Argentina). Previous and ongoing investigations at Laguna Potrok Aike promise a long and undisturbed sediment record that might span several glacial/interglacial cycles unidentified for midlatitudes of the southern hemisphere until now. Based on a 3.5 kHz seismic survey a horizontally layered body of pelagic sediments with a thickness exceeding 30-40 m was recognized. Short and piston coring of up to 17m of sediment provide data about Holocene variabilities of the moisture balance - data which is of great value for the prevailing water-dependent sheep farming economy. The maximum sediment thickness is ultimately needed for proposing a new ICDP drilling site and will be achieved by airgun seismic. To optimize the use of financial resources we will use this field trip also for a pre-site survey for bathymetry, physical and chemical limnology, modern pollen and diatoms and surface sediments in the Meseta Cerro Colorado to perhaps come up with a second lake suitable as ICDP coring site thus generating a north-south transect.
Das Projekt "Teilprojekt B" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Klinikum rechts der Isar der Technischen Universität München, Klinik und Poliklinik für Nuklearmedizin durchgeführt. In der letzten Dekade hat die Einführung von radioaktiv markierten PSMA Liganden die diagnostischen und therapeutischen Möglichkeiten nuklearmedizinischer Methoden fundamental erweitert. Im Rahmen theranostischer Konzepte rücken Ansätze mit chemisch nahezu identischen Substanzen in den Fokus, mit denen eine weitgehende Verzahnung zwischen Diagnostik und Therapie ermöglicht wird. Allerdings besteht bei diesen neuen Verfahren noch ein signifikanter Optimierungsbedarf des gesamten Arbeitsablaufes. Im Detail gilt es, a) eine optimale Balance zwischen der Menge des injizierten Radiotherapeutikums für den Patienten (maximale Tumordosis bei größtmöglicher Schonung gesunden Gewebes / von Risikoorganen wie den Nieren sowie der Strahlenbelastung für Angehörige und Mitarbeiter der Klinik zu finden. Die chemische Symmetrie von diagnostischen und therapeutischen Substanzen ist zwar ein entscheidender Schlüssel, allerdings erfolgt die Messung der beiden Substanzgruppen auf unterschiedlichen Zeitskalen (Stunden vs. Tage). Diagnostische Methoden mit Positronenemittern decken einen Zeitraum von Stunden ab, therapeutische Substanzen sind langlebige Alpha- oder Betastrahler. Die Aufgabe besteht nun darin, aus der Kinetik der diagnostischen Komponente die der therapeutischen Komponente abzuschätzen, um die Dosis auf den Tumor bei minimalem Schaden anderer Organe zu finden. Allerdings ist das Risiko für die Mitarbeiter und die Angehörigen im Vergleich zur etablierten Radiojodtherapie (RJT) erhöht. Das liegt zum einen an der Art der Applikation (Injektion in flüssiger Form vs. Kapselgabe bei der RJT) und zum anderen an den unterschiedlichen physikalischen Eigenschaften der eingesetzten Radionuklide. Auch die Tatsache, dass Patienten mit mCRPC häufig deutlich pflegebedürftiger als RJT-Patienten sind sowie die regelmäßige Wiederholung der palliativen Behandlung erhöht das Kontaminations- und somit das Inkorporationsrisiko für Mitarbeiter und Angehörige. Mithin ist die optimale Bala (Text abgebrochen)
Das Projekt "Forest management in the Earth system" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. The majority of the worlds forests has undergone some form of management, such as clear-cut or thinning. This management has direct relevance for global climate: Studies estimate that forest management emissions add a third to those from deforestation, while enhanced productivity in managed forests increases the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to act as a sink for carbon dioxide emissions. However, uncertainties in the assessment of these fluxes are large. Moreover, forests influence climate also by altering the energy and water balance of the land surface. In many regions of historical deforestation, such biogeophysical effects have substantially counteracted warming due to carbon dioxide emissions. However, the effect of management on biogeophysical effects is largely unknown beyond local case studies. While the effects of climate on forest productivity is well established in forestry models, the effects of forest management on climate is less understood. Closing this feedback cycle is crucial to understand the driving forces behind past climate changes to be able to predict future climate responses and thus the required effort to adapt to it or avert it. To investigate the role of forest management in the climate system I propose to integrate a forest management module into a comprehensive Earth system model. The resulting model will be able to simultaneously address both directions of the interactions between climate and the managed land surface. My proposed work includes model development and implementation for key forest management processes, determining the growth and stock of living biomass, soil carbon cycle, and biophysical land surface properties. With this unique tool I will be able to improve estimates of terrestrial carbon source and sink terms and to assess the susceptibility of past and future climate to combined carbon cycle and biophysical effects of forest management. Furthermore, representing feedbacks between forest management and climate in a global climate model could advance efforts to combat climate change. Changes in forest management are inevitable to adapt to future climate change. In this process, is it possible to identify win-win strategies for which local management changes do not only help adaptation, but at the same time mitigate global warming by presenting favorable effects on climate? The proposed work opens a range of long-term research paths, with the aim of strengthening the climate perspective in the economic considerations of forest management and helping to improve local decisionmaking with respect to adaptation and mitigation.
Das Projekt "Modelling the impact of global warming on the trophic state of the upper ocean" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR) durchgeführt. The main aim of the proposed research is a quantitative evaluation of the potential impact of global warming on the trophic balance of the upper ocean. Primary production, as well as autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration are all expected to increase with temperature, and a number of experimental culture studies suggest that the increase with temperature is more pronounced for respiration than for production. This notion has been further confirmed on the ecosystem level in recent short-term mesocosm studies. According to these results, an expected direct effect of global warming is a weakening of the biological carbon pump. In contrast to indirect effects arising from changes in circulation and stratification, such a direct temperature effect has not yet been investigated quantitatively on a global scale. Using an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity, the proposed study will investigate the sensitivity of the model's biological pump to different parameterisations of temperature effects on autotrophic and heterotrophic processes, each calibrated by available experimental data from culture and mesocosm studies. The ability of different parameterisations to closely reproduce regional patterns of biogeochemical tracer distributions will first be evaluated for pre-industrial steady-state solutions. In a second step, the model will be forced with IPCC-type CO2 emission scenarios over the 21st century in order to estimate the impact of direct temperature effects on the marine biota relative to indirect effects via changes in circulation and stratification.
Das Projekt "Integrated modelling of the response of aquatic ecosystems to land use and climate change in the Poyang lake region, China" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Kiel, Institut für Natur- und Ressourcenschutz, Abteilung Hydrologie und Wasserwirtschaft durchgeführt. Catchment properties, instream processes and their effects on aquatic organisms are closely linked, but the interaction of key driving forces, processes and possible feedback mechanism are yet not well understood. The aim of our project is thus the development of an integrated modelling methodology to assess the impact of fast environmental changes on aquatic ecosystems in the example catchment of the Changjiang (6260 km2) in the Poyang lake area (China). Joint measurement and sampling campaigns will be the basis for integrating three different models: we aim to model a dynamic DPSI(R)-system, for the first time coupling the models SWAT (catchment processes), HEC-RAS (in-stream processes) and MAXENT/BIOMOD (biological responses). Major drivers (climate, land use, channel alteration) are model input data, while the main pressures on the ecosystem (water balance, nutrients, sedimentation) are defined and represented in the model algorithms of SWAT and HEC-RAS. Based on the multiple pressures, we aim to dynamically assess the changes of the state of habitat parameters (e.g. flow, depth, substrate) in the model output. Finally, the impact of the state on the aquatic ecosystems will be evaluated by analysing shift of distribution ranges modelled by MAXENT/BIOMOD and changes in biodiversity or ecosystem health indicators of benthic invertebrates, an important group in freshwater ecosystems. Joint scenario runs considering climate or land use changes will particularly enhance understanding (1) how landscape processes and nutrient cycles interact with ecohydrological and aquatic system properties and (2) how the impact of land use, climate and hydromorphological change on aquatic ecosystem properties can be assessed.
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