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Shall the CBAM be expanded further downstream? Insights from assessing products along the automotive value chain

The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) replaces the free allocation in the EU ETS 1 as the main carbon leakage instrument. The study discusses the potential expansion of the CBAM to downstream products. Using the example of products from the automotive value chain (wheels, brakes, crankshafts, forged and flat-rolled primary products), it shows that the CO₂ costs vary greatly depending on the product. The estimates of the carbon costs are complemented with expert assessments from interviews. The study then derives a series of criteria to be considered for the extension of CBAM to downstream products. Veröffentlicht in Climate Change | 50/2025.

Model Output Statistics for CHAM (06674)

DWD’s fully automatic MOSMIX product optimizes and interprets the forecast calculations of the NWP models ICON (DWD) and IFS (ECMWF), combines these and calculates statistically optimized weather forecasts in terms of point forecasts (PFCs). Thus, statistically corrected, updated forecasts for the next ten days are calculated for about 5400 locations around the world. Most forecasting locations are spread over Germany and Europe. MOSMIX forecasts (PFCs) include nearly all common meteorological parameters measured by weather stations. For further information please refer to: [in German: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/met_verfahren_mosmix/met_verfahren_mosmix.html ] [in English: https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/met_application_mosmix/met_application_mosmix.html ]

Model Output Statistics for BAM (40854)

DWD’s fully automatic MOSMIX product optimizes and interprets the forecast calculations of the NWP models ICON (DWD) and IFS (ECMWF), combines these and calculates statistically optimized weather forecasts in terms of point forecasts (PFCs). Thus, statistically corrected, updated forecasts for the next ten days are calculated for about 5400 locations around the world. Most forecasting locations are spread over Germany and Europe. MOSMIX forecasts (PFCs) include nearly all common meteorological parameters measured by weather stations. For further information please refer to: [in German: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/met_verfahren_mosmix/met_verfahren_mosmix.html ] [in English: https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/met_application_mosmix/met_application_mosmix.html ]

Klimaforschungsplan KLIFOPLAN, Carbon Leakage Schutz und Industrietransformation: CBAM/ETS - Wirkungen, Entwicklungsbedarfe und Designempfehlungen

a) Der im Juli 2021 durch die KOM vorgestellte Vorschlag für einen CBAM stellt - durch den damit intendierten Carbon Leakage-Schutz bei gleichzeitiger Absenkung des ETS-Caps - einen zentralen Baustein dar, um die Voraussetzungen für die Transformation der ETS-Industriebranchen und der ihr nachgelagerten Branchen zur THG-Neutralität zu schaffen. Ebenso sollen die durch die KOM im FF55-Vorschlag angekündigten Anpassungen bei den Benchmark-Zuteilungsregeln die Anreize für Prozessumstellungen bei den Firmen erhöhen. b) In den Jahren 2023-25 werden Details in einer Vielzahl von Durchführungs-Rechtsakten präzisiert, in denen wesentliche Designfragen zu klären sind. Dafür sind sowohl Ad-hoc-Beratungsleistungen als auch ökonomische Hintergrundanalysen erforderlich. Bezüglich CBAM ist vor allem wichtig: welche Wirkungsmechanismen sind wesentlich, welche möglichen Lücken und 'Umgehungsmöglichkeiten' zu adressieren und welche Ausgestaltungsfragen folglich zentral? Bezüglich der Anpassungen von Benchmarks sind sowohl branchenspezifische Probleme als auch übergreifende Fragen zu erwarten. Die Untersuchungen bauen auf vorhergehenden Forschungsergebnissen zu Carbon-Leakage (Refoplan 2017), zur CO2-Kostenbelastung ('MSR-Review', Refoplan 2020) und zum EU-Innovationsfonds (Refoplan 2015 und SV-Titel 2020) auf.

Klimaforschungsplan KLIFOPLAN, Analyse und Fortentwicklung des CBAM mit Blick auf dessen Wirkung in Drittstaaten: Resource Shuffling, Wirkungen auf Unternehmen in Drittstaaten, Anerkennung von ausländischen CO2-Preisen

Ziel des Projektes ist es, UBA/BMWE mit wissenschaftlicher Expertise bei der Evaluierung und Weiterentwicklung des CBAM und des EU-ETS 1 zu unterstützen, Vorarbeiten sinnvoll zu ergänzen und zu ausgewählten Fragestellungen Akzente für den wissenschaftlichen Diskurs zu setzen. Zu CBAM und EU-ETS 1 stehen 2025/2026 Berichte der EU-Kommission zur Weiterentwicklung bzw. europäische Legislativvorschläge an, die im Projekt begleitet werden sollen. Beim CBAM ist dies Ende 2025/Anfang 2026 der Bericht zur Weiterentwicklung gemäß Art. 30 Absatz 2 der CBAM-Verordnung (EU) 2023/956) sowie Legislativvorschläge. Zum EU-ETS 1 ist dies 2026 der Bericht zur Weiterentwicklung für den Zeitraum nach 2030 gemäß Art. 30 der ETS-Richtlinie (2003/87/EG) sowie die Reform der Marktstabilitätsreserve (MSR) entsprechend Artikel 3 der 'MSR-Entscheidung' (EU) 2015/1814. Das Vorhaben gliedert sich in vier inhaltliche Arbeitspakete in deren Rahmen Studien, Kurzanalysen und Fact Sheets erarbeitet und während der Projektlaufzeit veröffentlicht werden. Auch der Abschlussbericht ist für die Veröffentlichung vorgesehen. AP1 baut auf den Vorarbeiten eines momentan laufenden Forschungsprojekts auf und dient der vertiefenden Analyse von Risiken in Bezug zum sogenannten Resource Shuffling (RS). Zudem sollen Vorschläge für Maßnahmen gegen RS in einer Übersicht zusammengestellt und aus ökonomischer und rechtlicher Perspektive bewertet werden. AP2 behandelt die Thematik der Anerkennung von CO2-Preisen in Drittstaaten, mit dem Ziel Fallstudien-basiert Handlungsempfehlungen für die Ausgestaltung der Instrumente in Drittstaaten zu fomulieren. Außerdem analysiert AP2 die Wirkung von CBAM auf Unternehmen in Drittstaaten und arbeitet gängige Kritik am CBAM systematisch auf, ggf. werden Handlungsempfehlungen für die Ausgestaltung den CBAM erarbeitet. Das AP3 bearbeitet Kernfragen der Weiterentwicklung des EU-ETS 1 im Hinblick auf den Mitte 2026 anstehenden Bericht und Legislativvorschlag der (Text abgebrochen)

Approaches to Carbon Leakage in Carbon Pricing Policies

Broad and ambitious climate action is urgently needed since the Paris Agreement’s goals are still out of sight. While globally aligned and joint climate policy measures would be the best solution to avoid carbon leakage, in their absence, alternative measures can address carbon leakage risks. However, they can also result in fragmentation and inefficiencies. This paper provides an overview of how Climate Club member countries and selected other major GHG emitters address carbon leakage risks within their carbon pricing policies, and highlights areas for cooperation to reduce inefficiencies and collectively increase ambition. Veröffentlicht in Fact Sheet.

Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU ETS and of a CBAM - Extended model overview

This report is part of the overall project “Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU-ETS and of a CBAM”. It provides an overview of existing models that are in principle capable of representing the key topics of the overall research project: namely, a) the potential “carbon leakage” impacts from “uneven” carbon pricing, b) policies that address this risk, e.g. a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), and c) more general, key economic impacts of GHG mitigation scenarios with different total global mitigation ambitions. This overview also includes the two models applied in this project - GINFORS-E and GEM-E3. Veröffentlicht in Climate Change | 76/2025.

Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU ETS and of a CBAM - Summary

Two types of large-scale models with different modelling philosophies are used to quantify socioeconomic effects in scenarios in which the EU moves forward in climate policy and applies different design options under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) combined with a Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM). One model, GEM-E3, is a computable general equilibrium model that follows neoclassical theory, while the other model, GINFORS-E, is a macroeconometric model that follows a post-Keynesian approach. The results of both models suggest that an effective CBAM plays a significant role in reducing the risk of carbon leakage. The key results on trade, production and emission effects also show, by and large, little quantitative variation between the two models, in spite of their different philosophies. The overall report consists of four separate reports next to this Summary Report: Veröffentlicht in Climate Change | 77/2025.

Climate Protection Scenarios until 2050 Considering CO₂ Price Differences and Carbon Leakage - Central report

Two types of large-scale models with different modelling philosophies are used to quantify socioeconomic effects in scenarios in which the EU moves forward in climate policy and applies different design options under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) combined with a Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM). One model, GEM-E3, is a computable general equilibrium model that follows neoclassical theory, while the other model, GINFORS-E, is a macroeconometric model that follows a post-Keynesian approach. The results of both models suggest that an effective CBAM plays a significant role in reducing the risk of carbon leakage. The key results on trade, production and emission effects also show, by and large, little quantitative variation between the two models, in spite of their different philosophies. This Central Report covers the results of the key policy scenarios on the EU-ETS design regarding allocation and the CBAM. It also includes some key sensitivity analyses on trade assumptions, climate policy ambition in major trading partner countries, extension of the CBAM to indirect emissions thereby replacing national schemes for compensating electricity prices from ETS, and (for GEM-E3) on the use of government revenues. Veröffentlicht in Climate Change | 74/2025.

Climate Protection Scenarios until 2050 Considering CO₂ Price Differences and Carbon Leakage - Technical report

Two types of large-scale models with different modelling philosophies are used to quantify socioeconomic effects in scenarios in which the EU moves forward in climate policy and applies different design options under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) combined with a Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM). One model, GEM-E3, is a computable general equilibrium model that follows neoclassical theory, while the other model, GINFORS-E, is a macroeconometric model that follows a post-Keynesian approach. The results of both models suggest that an effective CBAM plays a significant role in reducing the risk of carbon leakage. The key results on trade, production and emission effects also show, by and large, little quantitative variation between the two models, in spite of their different philosophies. This Technical Report documents firstly how the two models have been harmonised as far as possible in terms of external assumptions on, e.g., global population, GDP development and on energy prices, so that the differences in results in the later, policy related, scenarios are indeed related to model differences, and not simply to different key assumptions. This is followed by exploratory scenario runs that address the impact of the EU moving forward versus the case that global uniform CO 2 prices achieve either a 2 degrees, or a 1.5 degrees climate policy goal. Veröffentlicht in Climate Change | 75/2025.

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