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Africa is a region highly vulnerable to climatic change due to both ecological and socio-economic factors; however it is the least well-covered region by studies on climate change. For these reasons, the overarching goal of this project is to set up a first attempt of a GHG fluxes monitoring network of Africa, in order to quantify, understand and predict, by a multi-disciplinary integrated approach, GHG emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa and its associated spatial and temporal variability. We will start building on the state of the art of the carbon studies in Africa, filling the gaps of knowledge, and then we will utilize and expand existing carbon observing systems, together with the establishment of new infrastructures, improving the required monitoring systems. We also conduct specific regional studies in key areas, considering both carbon sources and sinks. The components of the African greenhouse gas budget have so far not been adequately determined, and the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol requirements is far to be achieved. There is consequently a significant need for an assessment of the current land use change, evaluating the potential for carbon sequestration in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. The existing GHG observations capabilities for fluxes and stocks of carbon, their geographical distribution, the end users requirements for UNFCCC and IPCC guidelines implementation, will be used to design an optimal monitoring system network and the identification of its components. The CARBOAFRICA network will contribute to the enhancement of an Earth observations system, strengthening the capacity of Europe to understand global change process. The scientific and technological results, in addition to the capacity building activities foreseen by this project, will promote the integration of the environmental dimension in the social and economic context, supporting Sub-Saharan African countries on the path of a sustainable development. Prime Contractor: Department of Forest Science and Environment (DISAFRI), University of Tuscia Viterbo; Italy.
MACC - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate - is the current pre-operational atmospheric service of the European GMES programme. MACC provides data records on atmospheric composition for recent years, data for monitoring present conditions and forecasts of the distribution of key constituents for a few days ahead. MACC combines state-of-the-art atmospheric modelling with Earth observation data to provide information services covering European Air Quality, Global Atmospheric Composition, Climate, and UV and Solar Energy.
Das Hauptziel des ASTRA - Projekts besteht darin, die regionalen Auswirkungen des anhaltenden globalen Klimawandels festzustellen sowie Strategien und Richtlinien zur Anpassung zu entwickeln. In der ersten Phase wird das Projekt im Rahmen einer Studie wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse aus Klimamodellen und der Forschung bezüglich Klimaauswirkungen sowie geomorphologische und geologische Untersuchungen verwenden, um die Folgen der Klimaveränderung für sowohl natürliche als auch sozioökonomische Systeme zu ermitteln. Zweitens werden in Hinblick auf die regionale Planung Anpassungsstrategien entwickelt. Drittens wird besonderer Wert auf das Risikobewusstsein der Öffentlichkeit gelegt, indem in den an die Ostsee angrenzenden Ländern zum Zwecke der Informationsverbreitung regionale Konferenzen und Workshops veranstaltet werden. Hauptauftragnehmer: Geological Survey of Finland, Espoo (FI).
Objective: Observational records show that the global climate is changing and ongoing changes are also visible in Central Eastern Europe. About 64Prozent of all catastrophic events in Europe since 1980 can directly be attributed to weather and climate extremes. Climate change projections show even an increasing likelihood of extremes. Certainly negative impacts of climate change will involve significant economic looses in several regions of Europe, while others may bring health or welfare problems somewhere else. Within CLAVIER three representative Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) will be studied in detail: Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Researches from 6 countries and different disciplines will identify linkages between climate change and its impact on weather patterns with consequences on air pollution, extremes events, and on water resources. Furthermore, an evaluation of the economic impact on agriculture, tourism, energy supply and the public sector will be conducted. This is of increasing importance for CEEC, which are currently facing a rapid economic development, but also for the European Union as e.g. Romania's and Bulgaria's high vulnerability from extreme events such as floods will impact not only the respective economic goals for joining the EU but also the EU solidarity fund. CLAVIER will focus on ongoing and future climate changes in Central and Eastern European Countries using measurements and existing regional scenarios to determine possible developments of the climate and to address related uncertainty. In addition, climate projections with very high detail will be carried out for CEEC to fulfil the need for a large amount of detail in time and space, which is inherent in local and regional impact assessment.
Objective: The CLARIS LPB Project aims at predicting the regional climate change impacts on La Plata Basin (LPB) in South America, and at designing adaptation strategies for land-use, agriculture, rural development, hydropower production, river transportation, water resources and ecological systems in wetlands. In order to reach such a goal, the project has been built on the following four major thrusts. First, improving the description and understanding of decadal climate variability is of prime importance for short-term regional climate change projections (2010-2040). Second, a sound approach requires an ensemble of coordinated regional climate scenarios in order to quantify the amplitude and sources of uncertainties in LPB future climate at two time horizons: 2010-2040 for adaptation strategies and 2070-2100 for assessment of long-range impacts. Such coordination will allow to critically improve the prediction capacity of climate change and its impacts in the region. Third, adaptation strategies to regional scenarios of climate change impacts require a multi-disciplinary approach where all the regional components (climate, hydrology, land use, land cover, agriculture and deforestation) are addressed in a collaborative way. Feedbacks between the regional climate groups and the land use and hydrology groups will ensure to draw a first-order feedback of future land use and hydrology scenarios onto the future regional climate change. Fourth, stakeholders must be integrated in the design of adaptation strategies, ensuring their dissemination to public, private and governmental policy-makers. Finally, in continuity with the FP6 CLARIS Project, our project will put a special emphasis in forming young scientists in European institutes and in strengthening the collaborations between European and South American partners. The project is coordinated with the objectives of LPB, an international project on La Plata Basin that has been endorsed by the CLIVAR and GEWEX Panels.
Um das volle Potential von tropischen Wäldern für die Reduktion von Klimawandelfolgen (CCM) und das Angebot von anderen Ökosystemleistungen unter Bedingungen des globalen Wandels zu verstehen, müssen wir unser Verständnis der Beziehungen zwischen Biodiversität (BD) und sozio-ökologischen Prozessen, durch die wir auf Veränderung reagieren und uns anpassen, verbessern. ROBIN bietet Informationen für Politik- und Ressourcennutzungsoptionen mittels Szenarien des sozio-ökonomischen und klimabezogenem Wandels durch: Quantifizierung von Interaktionen zwischen terrestrischer Biodiversität, Landnutzung und CCM Potential im tropischen Lateinamerika; Entwicklung von Szenarien für CCM Optionen durch eine Evaluation ihrer Effektivität, ihrer unbeabsichtigten Auswirkungen auf andere ökosystemare Leistungen (z.B. Verringerung von Krankheitsfällen) und ihrer sozio-ökologischen Konsequenzen. Erreichen wollen wir das durch die Kombination von neuen Techniken (inkl. Fernerkundung) für Biodiversitätsmessungen in komplexen multi-funktionalen Landschaften, durch datenbasierte Analyse, und durch integrierte Modellierung und partizipative Ansätze auf lokaler und regionaler Ebene. Anhand einer Reihe von Fallbeispielen in Mesoamerika und in Amazonien versuchen wir die Beziehungen zwischen Biodiversität und CCM Optionen und Entwicklungen in der Ernährungspolitik zu verstehen. Diese Studien verbessern unser Wissen zu CCM Optionen, die der von Stakeholdern favorisiert werden, und unser Verständnis für Faktoren, die die Einführung von Ressourcenmanagementstrategien behindern oder fördern.
Objective: Past4Future will combine multidisciplinary paleoclimate records from ice cores, marine cores, speleothems, pollen and other records, concentrating on a global distribution of the records, to reconstruct climate change and variability during the present interglacial (the Holocene) and the last interglacial (known as the Eemian in northwestern Europe and as marine isotope stage 5e in the marine sediment records). The records will be combined in integrated analyses aided by proxy modeling and assimilation, to gain understanding of the climate processes involved in the dynamics of interglacial climates. Earth system models (ESM) including physical and biogeochemical processes will be applied to simulate the past and present interglacial climate, and to confront and intercompare the simulations with climate changes as observed from the palaeodata; this will both advance the models and our understanding of the dynamics and predictability of the climate system. Focus will be on the most recent two interglacial periods, as these provide the highest-resolved most comprehensive data records. Moreover the last interglacial represents a situation where the mean state was warmer than at present in large regions due to orbital forcing, thereby allowing tests of climate system sensitivity to constrain projections of potential future ice sheet, sea-level, circulation and biogeochemical changes. The data and Earth system model results will be used improve our capabilities to project future global and regional warming from a better understanding of relevant paleoclimates, especially in relation to sea level changes, sea ice changes and thermohaline circulation changes. The Past4Future program will draw together a world leading team of European and international partners in a concerted effort to advance our knowledge on the causes, processes and risks of abrupt changes in warm periods, such as those projected for the current and the next century. The program will inform the international debate on climate system stability and the dissemination of results will be targeted to both citizens and governmental and non-governmental stakeholders. It will leave a legacy of improved understanding of past drivers of sea level changes, changes of sea ice, and of greenhouse gas concentrations, and it will train a new generation of young climate researchers to further advance research and improved future predictions for the benefit of society and our capacity to mitigate and adapt to climate changes.
To provide a scientifically sound basis for air quality and climate protection measures the Zeppelin is observing radicals and aerosols in the atmospheric layers close to the ground over Europe. Objective: The Pan-European Gas-AeroSOls-climate interaction Study (PEGASOS) European large scale integrating project brings together most of the leading European research groups, with state-of the-art observational and modelling facilities to: (1) Quantify the magnitude of regional to global feedbacks between atmospheric chemistry and a changing climate and to reduce the corresponding uncertainty of the major ones. (2) Identify mitigation strategies and policies to improve air quality while limiting their impact on climate change. The project is organized into four scientific Themes designed to optimize the integration of methodologies, scales, and ultimately our understanding of air quality and climate interactions: (I) Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions and their response to climate and socio-economy (II) Atmospheric interactions among chemical and physical processes (III) Regional and global links between atmospheric chemistry and climate change (IV) Air quality in a changing climate: Integration with policy PEGASOS will bridge the spatial and temporal scales that connect local surface-air pollutant exchanges, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. Our major focus for air quality will be Europe including effects of changes in pollutant emissions elsewhere and the time horizon for the study will be the next 50 years. During the project we will provide improved process understanding in areas of major uncertainty for better quantification of feedbacks between air quality and a changing climate. We will present, for the first time, a fully integrated analysis of dynamically changing emissions and deposition, their link to tropo-spheric chemical reactions and interactions with climate, and emerging feedbacks between chemistry-climate and surface processes. We will target both local and regional scales, taking into account chemistry and climate feedbacks on the global scale.
Objective: Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. They are also a major contributor to uncertainty in other feedbacks (e.g., surface albedo, carbon cycle) in the Earth System. Through interactions with the large-scale circulation, cloud processes also contribute to synoptic circulations and regional climate. They are therefore critical to the prediction of future changes in precipitation patterns, climate variability and extreme events. The central objective of EUCLIPSE is to reduce the uncertainty in the representation of cloud processes and feedbacks in the new generation of Earth System Models (ESMs), in support of the IPCC's fifth assessment report. Novel, process-oriented evaluations of clouds in present-day and future climate simulations made by the leading European ESMs will identify the cloud types and processes responsible for the spread in climate sensitivity and future precipitation changes across the models, and for deficiencies in the simulation of the present-day climate. The new diagnostics and metrics developed in EUCLIPSE will inform targeted sensitivity experiments to isolate the processes responsible for cloud feedback uncertainty. In EUCLIPSE, four distinct communities will work together across a set of integrated work packages over a four-year period: the observational community will provide state-of-the-art measurements from ground- and space-based active and passive remote sensing; the numerical weather prediction community will provide analyses of short timescale model biases induced by cloud processes; the cloud modeling community will provide fine-scale models as an additional tool for understanding cloud behavior in a changing climate; finally, the climate modeling community will synthesize the physical understanding and observational constraints identified by the other communities to improve the representation and assessment of cloud processes in ESMs and so improve the predictive skill of ESMs.
Objective: Increases of atmospheric CO2 and associated decreases in seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration this century and beyond are likely to have wide impacts on marine ecosystems including those of the Mediterranean Sea. Consequences of this process, ocean acidification, threaten the health of the Mediterranean, adding to other anthropogenic pressures, including those from climate change. Yet in comparison to other areas of the world ocean, there has been no concerted effort to study Mediterranean acidification, which is fundamental to the social and economic conditions of more than 400 million people living along its coastlines and another 175 million who visit the region each year. The MedSeA project addresses ecologic and economic impacts from the combined influences of anthropogenic acidification and warming, while accounting for the unique characteristics of this key region. MedSeA will forecast chemical, climatic, ecological-biological, and socio-economical changes of the Mediterranean driven by increases in CO2 and other greenhouse gases, while focusing on the combined impacts of acidification and warming on marine shell and skeletal building, productivity, and food webs. We will use an interdisciplinary approach involving biologists, earth scientists, and economists, through observations, experiments, and modelling. These experts will provide science-based projections of Mediterranean acidification under the influence of climate change as well as associated economic impacts. Projections will be based on new observations of chemical conditions as well as new observational and experimental data on the responses of key organisms and ecosystems to acidification, which will be fed into existing ocean models that have been improved to account for the Mediterranean's fine-scale features. These scientific advances will allow us to provide the best advice to policymakers who must develop regional strategies for adaptation and mitigation.
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