In hydrology, the relationship between water storage and flow is still fundamental in characterizing and modeling hydrological systems. However, this simplification neglects important aspects of the variability of the hydrological system, such as stable or instable states, tipping points, connectivity, etc. and influences the predictability of hydrological systems, both for extreme events as well as long-term changes. We still lack appropriate data to develop theory linking internal pattern dynamics and integral responses and therefore to identify functionally similar hydrological areas and link this to structural features. We plan to investigate the similarities and differences of the dynamic patterns of state variables and the integral response in replicas of distinct landscape units. A strategic and systematic monitoring network is planned in this project, which contributes the essential dynamic datasets to the research group to characterize EFUs and DFUs and thus significantly improving the usual approach of subdividing the landscape into static entities such as the traditional HRUs. The planned monitoring network is unique and highly innovative in its linkage of surface and subsurface observations and its spatial and temporal resolution and the centerpiece of CAOS.
The formation of biogeochemical interfaces in soils is controlled, among other factors, by the type of particle surfaces present and the assemblage of organic matter and mineral particles. Therefore, the formation and maturation of interfaces is studied with artificial soils which are produced in long-term biogeochemical laboratory incubation experiments (3, 6, 12, 18 months. Clay minerals, iron oxides and charcoal are used as major model components controlling the formation of interfaces because they exhibit high surface area and microporosity. Soil interface characteristics have been analyzed by several groups involved in the priority program for formation of organo-mineral interfaces, sorptive and thermal interface properties, microbial community structure and function. Already after 6 months of incubation, the artificial soils exhibited different properties in relation to their composition. A unique dataset evolves on the development and the dynamics of interfaces in soil in the different projects contributing to this experiment. An integrated analysis based on a conceptual model and multivariate statistics will help to understand overall processes leading to the biogeochemical properties of interfaces in soil, that are the basis for their functions in ecosystems. Therefore, we propose to establish an integrative project for the evaluation of data obtained and for publication of synergistic work, which will bring the results to a higher level of understanding.
Although global pesticide use increases steadily, our field-data based knowledge regarding exposure of non-target ecosystems is very restricted. Consequently, this meta-analysis will for the first time evaluate the worldwide available peer-reviewed information on agricultural insecticide concentrations in surface water or sediment and test the following two hypotheses: I) Insecticide concentrations in the field largely exceed regulatory threshold levels and II) Additional factors important for threshold level exceedances can be quantified using retrospective meta-analysis. A feasibility study using a restricted dataset (n = 377) suggested the significance of the expected results, i.e. an threshold level exceedance rate of more than 50Prozent of the detected concentrations. Subsequent to a comprehensive database search in the peer-reviewed literature of the past 60 years, analysis of covariance with the relevant threshold level exceedance as the continuous dependent variable (about 10,000 cases) will be performed and the impact of significant predictor variables will be quantified. Parameters not yet considered in pesticide exposure assessment will be included as independent variables, such as compound class, environmental regulatory quality, and sampling design. The simultaneous presence of several insecticide compounds as a well as their metabolites will also be considered in the evaluation. The present approach may provide an innovative and integrated view on the potential environmental side effects of global high-intensity agriculture and in particular of pesticides use.
Satellite measurements strongly contribute to the understanding of the processes related to stratospheric ozone loss, e.g. by global and long term monitoring of ozone and its depleting substances. For instance, measurements performed in limb geometry by SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT largely improved the knowledge about the vertical distribution of species like BrO and OClO only recently. However, there are still important open questions, like e.g. the chlorine activation processes on different kinds of aerosols and polar stratospheric clouds. Also, the role of very short lived species in the stratospheric bromine budget or the effects of a possible enhancement of the Brewer-Dobson circulation are not fully understood.Globally, the vertical distribution of ozone depleting species varies significantly in space and time due to solar illumination, atmospheric chemistry and transport. Especially strong gradients occur near the twilight zone or across stratospheric transport barriers (polar vortex boundary, subtropical transport barriers). These regions are of particular importance for chemistry and transport of the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, since they separate air masses on large scales but also enable exchange between them.Standard 1-D profile retrievals, which assume horizontal homogeneity, result in large systematic biases due to neglecting the effect of horizontal gradients on the measurement. We propose to develop, improve and apply a tomographic profile retrieval algorithm, which optimally combines the information provided by the SCIAMACHY limb and nadir measurements. An improved global dataset of 3D stratospheric profiles for NO2, BrO and OClO for the 10 years of the SCIAMACHY mission (2002-2012) will be developed, compared to atmospheric chemistry simulations and applied to selected questions of atmospheric science. The dataset developed in this project will be very useful for investigating the complex interplay of stratospheric chemistry and transport processes, and will help to reduce the uncertainties in the distribution of ozone depleting species, in particular for regions with large horizontal inhomogeneity.
Die südecuadorianischen Anden beherbergen eine außergewöhnlich hohe Artenvielfalt. Viele verschiedene Umweltfaktoren beeinflussen sich auf sehr limitiertem Raum und erschaffen so einzigartige und komplexe Ökosysteme. Dieses Gebiet ist jedoch auf Grund des zunehmenden menschlichen Einflusses durch die fortschreitende Intensivierung der Landnutzung und des globalen Wandels hochgefährdet. Wir wissen nur wenig über die paläoökologische Geschichte und Landschaftsdynamik dieses Gebiets. Die Information über das warum und wie einer Veränderung von Ökosystemen ist unerlässlich für die Entwicklung innovativer Strategien für Naturschutz und im Hinblick auf zukünftige Klimaveränderungen. In der vorliegenden Studie werden palynologische Analysen aus den südecuadorianischen Anden vorgestellt, die dazu beitragen, Muster und Prozesse heutiger und vergangener Ökosysteme zu beleuchten. Eine paläoökologische Studie des Quimsacocha-Vulkanbeckens auf der östlichen Erhebung der Westkordillere der südecuadorianischen Anden deckt Klima-, Vegetations- und Brandregimeveränderungen in dieser Region seit dem frühen Holozän auf. Das mittlere Holozän war eine Zeit starker Umweltveränderungen, verursacht durch ein trockenes und wohl wärmeres Klima. Während des späten Holozäns wechselten sich mehrere Kalt-und Warmphasen ab. Brände können seit dem frühen Holozän im Gebiet verzeichnet werden. Sie könnten ein erstes Zeichen menschlichen Einflusses darstellen. Mit anderen paläoökologischen Aufzeichnungen aus den südecuadorianischen Anden verglichene multivariate Analysen decken teilweise konstrastierende Entwicklungen an den verschieden Standorten auf, die vermutlich durch die Heterogenität der Umweltfaktoren zu erklären sind. Weiterhin wurden Studien zum Verhältnis von heutigem Pollenregen mit der Vegetation in der Podocarpus Nationalpark-Region durchgeführt, um die Pollenverbreitungsmuster innerhalb der verschiedenen Vegetationstypen, prämontaner Wald, unterer Bergwald, oberer Bergwald und Páramo, zu verstehen und damit eine bessere Grundlage zur Interpretation fossiler Pollendaten zu schaffen. Ein Vergleich von Abundanz und An-/Abwesenheitsdaten von Familien als taxonomischer Einheit für Pollen- und Vegetation zeigt, dass Diversität, Verbreitung und Häufigkeiten beider Datensätze gut miteinander in Verbindung gebracht werden können. Dennoch werden die Muster durch variierende Anteile von durch Ferntransport eingetragenen Pollenkörnern sowie durch unterschiedliche Pollenproduktivität verschiedener Taxa und heterogene Windsysteme beeinflusst. Analysen der Pollenakkumulationsraten, die über drei Jahre erfasst wurden, lassen auf eine geringe inter-annuelle aber hohe räumliche Variation in den Daten schließen. (Text gekürzt)
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherent airstreams that typically develop along cold fronts associated with extratropical cyclones. These airstreams originate in the moist subtropical marine boundary layer and ascend within 1-2 days to the upper troposphere whilst moving more than 2000 km towards the pole. They occur most frequently during winter in the western North Pacific and North Atlantic where they are responsible for the major part of precipitation. The key role of WCBs for the dynamics of the synoptic and large-scale atmospheric flow stems from their profound impact upon the tropospheric distribution of potential vorticity (PV). The coherent ascent of WCBs leads to the diabatic production of a positive PV anomaly in the lower troposphere and of a negative PV anomaly in upper-level ridges just below the tropopause. When interacting with the extratropical waveguide, these negative PV anomalies can exert a profound impact upon the downstream flow evolution. Hence a WCB can be the trigger for the amplification and breaking of an upper-level Rossby wave, which is particularly relevant in situations where Rossby wave breaking events act as precursors of high-impact weather systems (e.g., heavy precipitation in the western Mediterranean, Saharan dust storms, cold air outbreaks). Recent studies indicate that errors in medium-range numerical weather predictions might be related to the inaccurate representation of WCBs and their effect on upper-level PV. In order to advance the basic understanding of these complex, non-linear and highly important dynamical processes, this project will (i) investigate the parameters and processes that determine the intensity of a WCB, its associated PV evolution and downstream effects, (ii) assess the errors in global models' analyses and forecasts associated with the different stages of a WCB life cycle, (iii) quantify the climatological frequency of the triggering and intensification of upper-level Rossby waves by WCBs, and (iv) provide clear guidance for investigating the dynamics of WCBs within the framework of THORPEX field experiments. In three subprojects, complementary techniques will be applied in order to reach these objectives, including idealized simulations of moist baroclinic waves, real case sensitivity experiments, diagnostic investigations based upon (re-)analysis and forecast data, and a feature-based verification of WCBs in global models using independent observational datasets. In this way this project will contribute to an improved basic understanding of the dynamical effects of WCBs on the downstream evolution of upper-level Rossby waves and (high-impact) surface weather events.
Both lakes and oceans are important for the global carbon cycle and thus the regulation of climate processes. Due to climate change and human activities, aquatic systems are subject to increasing pressure with changes already observed at multiple levels affecting their functioning. It is therefore urgent to understand the dynamic of aquatic systems, if one wants to predict their response to changing conditions. Phytoplankton, act as engineers, initiating the incorporation of terrestrial and atmospheric compounds into the food chain and driving their biogeochemical cycling. They not only respond rapidly to their environment, they also profoundly alter aquatic chemistry, affecting the reactivity, recycling, remineralisation and therefore fate of many elements. As such, phytoplankton affect the dynamics of aquatic systems with effects at both local and global scales. Phytoplankton can thus be used as sentinel to assess the dynamics and changes in aquatic systems. One of the most prominent reported controls of phytoplankton biomass, biodiversity and productivity is nutrient limitation, reported in most of the ocean and numerous lakes. Iron (Fe), nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) are the main limiting nutrients in aquatic systems. Nutrient limitation affects the functioning of aquatic systems and their contribution to the global carbon cycle. Despite numerous studies, the parameters controlling nutrient limitation and their accessibility to phytoplankton (viz. bioavailability) remain largely unknown. The aim of this project is to identify nutrient (Fe, N, P) limitation in different aquatic systems, and to improve our understanding of aquatic biogeochemistry - from gene expression, chemistry and bioavailability through to the impact on biodiversity under current and future conditions. The study regions include the largest lake in Western Europe, Lake Geneva; the Southern Ocean, a pivotal region for the global carbon cycle; and the Tasman Sea, one of the most sensitive regions to predicted climate change. All these regions are associated with significant socio-economical value. Here, a rigorous multi-disciplinary laboratory and field approach will be used to provide complementary data sets to shed light on how nutrients affect the biodiversity, the biogeochemical cycles of key elements and the functioning of natural systems. The laboratory approach (1) explore the mechanisms controlling nutrient biological accessibility using relevant axenic phytoplankton cultures and (2) allows the calibration and validation of biological and chemical sensors to rapidly monitor nutrient limitation in aquatic systems. In addition, field work will (1) explore the link and the seasonality between important physical, biological and chemical parameters and (2) use perturbation experiments to investigate the complexity of the link between nutrients and natural planktonic assemblages. (...)
Quality standards to assess the chemical status of water bodies under the Water Framework Directive are often based on a few standardized laboratory tests and fixed assessment factors for extrapolation to the field situation. If larger data sets including tests with non-standard species are available, a statistical extrapolation approach, the Species Sensitivity Distribution approach (SSD) is applied. For assessing the remaining uncertainty on the SSD, the threshold concentration derived can be compared with data from field monitoring or model ecosystem studies. Taking the priority substance Ni as an example we present the use of microcosms to test the protectiveness of the quality standard derived from laboratory toxicity tests. The study was conducted in 14 microcosms including a natural sediment layer and an overlaying water volume of 750 L located in a greenhouse. After a pre-treatment period for establishing a diverse aquatic community of phytoplankton, zooplankton, periphyton and snails, Ni solution was added to reach concentrations of 6, 12, 24, 48 and 96 micro g Ni/L in two microcosms each. Four microcosms served as untreated controls. To achieve the intended constant exposure over the test period of four months, Ni concentrations were frequently determined in the microcosms and appropriate amounts of nickel solution were added mostly on a daily basis. Parameters known to affect Ni toxicity, i.e. water hardness, pH, and dissolved organic carbon, were also measured. Population abundance and community structure were analysed for difference to the dynamics in the controls. In the microcosms with 48 and 96 micro g Ni/L long-term effects on phytoplankton, rotifers, snails and, due to reduced grazing by snails, indirectly on the periphyton biomass were observed. Only minor, and/or temporary deviations from controls, i.e., for single sampling dates, were found for a few algae taxa at lower concentrations. Because these deviations showed no clear dose-response and were not found at the end of the study they were not seen as adverse effects. However, for the snail (Lymnaea stagnalis), effects on the trend of population development could not be excluded at 24 micro g/L. Thus, the overall No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for a chronic exposure to nickel in this microcosm study was considered to be 12 micro g Ni/L. This NOEC confirms the protectiveness of the quality standard derived from the laboratory single species tests.
The goal of this study was to enable a prognosis on the future rainfall conditions of the Nile Equatorial Lakes regions by delivering time-series of monthly rainfall sums for the time-period from 2021 to 2050 that can be used for all kinds of applications. One example might be the dimensioning of hydraulic structures. In these very long lasting investments, future climatic conditions have to be considered during present planning and construction.The principal sources of information on future climate conditions are General Circulation Models (GCMs). These are physically based atmospheric models that resemble a numerical weather prediction system but on a much coarser scale. This forecast cannot be perfect. Especially, it cannot predict single values, e. g. if January 2050 will be rather wet or dry, but only climatic references, i.e. state, if Januaries in general will become wetter or dryer in the future. Even if the predictions of a GCM were perfect, its output could not be used directly for hydrological purposes, due to its coarse resolution. The monthly precipitation values that are provided by the GCM present the spatially averaged precipitation over a grid cell of several thousand square kilometres. This 'block rainfall' can differ significantly from rainfall measured at the ground. Rain gauges are influenced by local effects like micro climatic conditions or orographic effects of mountain ranges that GCMs are not able to resolve.This study combined the information from different data sources. As global trend information, monthly precipitation values from two GCMs (ECHAM5 and HadCM3) were used. Three CO2-emission scenarios (A1b, A2 and B1) were considered in this data. As local ground reference observed monthly rainfall sums from several rain gauges in East Africa as well as from three reanalysis projects (Climate Research Unit, University of Delaware and GPCC) were used.At each rain gauge or observation point in the reanalysis a technique called 'Quantile-Quantile-Transformation' was applied to establish a relationship between the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the GCMs and that of the ground references during the calibration period from 1961-1990. The CDFs were fitted by non-parametric Kernel-Smoothing. To account for potential shifts in the annual cycles of GCMs and ground references, the transformations was done separately for each month.Assuming that the relation between Global Model and local response will be constant in the future, the global predictions of the GCM can be downscaled to local scale, leading to future rainfall scenarios that are coherent with observed past rainfall.Combining the data from three CO2-emission scenarios of two GCM with three reanalysis data sets, an ensemble of 18 different rainfall time-series was created for each observation point. The range of this ensemble helps to estimate the possible uncertainties in the prognosis of future monthly precipitation sums from 2021 to 2050.
Understanding the drivers behind the loss of biodiversity currently observed is of major importance in the context of the global change discussion. For studies of biodiversity at broad spatial scales, satellite remote sensing is the premier source of information, as it is uniquely capable of covering large areas of the Earth at high temporal resolution. The underlying assumption is that satellite-derived geophysical surface parameters, such as vegetation greenness, are related to biodiversity. For that purpose, concepts such as the Dynamic Habitat Index (DHI) were recently developed. The DHI combines information on the overall greenness, the base level of vegetation cover, and vegetation seasonality at a certain location. By comparing the annual DHI with a long term mean, areas undergoing disturbances or recovery events can be delineated, which are indicative of changes in species composition and diversity. The concept of the DHI was developed for data obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) post-2000. However, for climate change impact studies a longer time series is desirable. The only sensor system suitable for such applications is the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), which has been in orbit on various platforms since the early 1980ies. The purpose of this project was to develop a methodology to derive long term information on habitat conditions at continental scales based on historical satellite data. In particular, the goal was to adopt the principle of the DHI as developed for the MODIS sensor to an AVHRR archive at 1 km spatial resolution over Canada and to analyze long term variations in the DHI. In a first project phase, an AVHRR data set of vegetation greenness, generated in the framework of the project, was validated against the reference MODIS product. The results demonstrated a very good agreement between both data sets for a wide range of vegetation types and on various spatial and temporal scales. A historical baseline of habitat conditions post-1987 based on the DHI was subsequently generated based on the long term AVHRR data. The analysis of the DHI showed that certain areas, particularly northern parts of the Province of Quebec as well as southwestern Canada, experienced significant changes over the past two decades, which may have had significant impacts on species diversity and abundance in these areas. In the future, the methods developed in the framework of this project may be used to obtain information on long term variations in habitat conditions in areas covered by other historical satellite archives, e.g., for Europe based on an AVHRR archive hosted at the University of Bern.
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