Farm structures are often characterized by regional heterogeneity, agglomeration effects, sub-optimal farm sizes and income disparities. The main objective of this study is to analyze whether this is a result of path dependent structural change, what the determinants of path dependence are, and how it may be overcome. The focus is on the German dairy sector which has been highly regulated and subsidized in the past and faces severe structural deficits. The future of this sector in the process of an ongoing liberalization will be analyzed by applying theoretical concepts of path dependence and path breaking. In these regards, key issues are the actual situation, technological and market trends as well as agricultural policies. The methodology will be based on a participative use of the agent-based model AgriPoliS and participatory laboratory experiments. On the one hand, AgriPoliS will be tested as a tool for stakeholder oriented analysis of mechanisms, trends and policy effects. This part aims to analyze whether and how path dependence of structural change can be overcome on a sector level. In a second part, AgriPoliS will be extended such that human players (farmers, students) can take over the role of agents in the model. This part aims to compare human agents with computer agents in order to overcome single farm path dependence.
The majority of the worlds forests has undergone some form of management, such as clear-cut or thinning. This management has direct relevance for global climate: Studies estimate that forest management emissions add a third to those from deforestation, while enhanced productivity in managed forests increases the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to act as a sink for carbon dioxide emissions. However, uncertainties in the assessment of these fluxes are large. Moreover, forests influence climate also by altering the energy and water balance of the land surface. In many regions of historical deforestation, such biogeophysical effects have substantially counteracted warming due to carbon dioxide emissions. However, the effect of management on biogeophysical effects is largely unknown beyond local case studies. While the effects of climate on forest productivity is well established in forestry models, the effects of forest management on climate is less understood. Closing this feedback cycle is crucial to understand the driving forces behind past climate changes to be able to predict future climate responses and thus the required effort to adapt to it or avert it. To investigate the role of forest management in the climate system I propose to integrate a forest management module into a comprehensive Earth system model. The resulting model will be able to simultaneously address both directions of the interactions between climate and the managed land surface. My proposed work includes model development and implementation for key forest management processes, determining the growth and stock of living biomass, soil carbon cycle, and biophysical land surface properties. With this unique tool I will be able to improve estimates of terrestrial carbon source and sink terms and to assess the susceptibility of past and future climate to combined carbon cycle and biophysical effects of forest management. Furthermore, representing feedbacks between forest management and climate in a global climate model could advance efforts to combat climate change. Changes in forest management are inevitable to adapt to future climate change. In this process, is it possible to identify win-win strategies for which local management changes do not only help adaptation, but at the same time mitigate global warming by presenting favorable effects on climate? The proposed work opens a range of long-term research paths, with the aim of strengthening the climate perspective in the economic considerations of forest management and helping to improve local decisionmaking with respect to adaptation and mitigation.
Changes in agroecosystem management (e.g. landscape diversity, management intensity) affect the natural control of pests. The effects of agricultural change on this ecosystem service, however, are not universal and the mechanisms affecting it remain to be understood. As biological control is effectively the product of networks of interactions between pests and their natural enemies, food web analysis provides a versatile tool to address this gap of knowledge. The proposed project will utilize a molecular food web approach and examine, for the first time, how changes in plant fertilisation and landscape complexity affect quantitative aphid-parasitoid-hyperparasitoid food webs on a species-specific level to unravel how changes in food web interactions affect parasitoid aphid control. Based on the fieldderived data, cage experiments will be conducted to assess how parasitoid diversity and identity affect parasitoid interactions and pest control, complementing the field results. The work proposed here will take research on parasitoid aphid control one step further, as it will provide a clearer understanding of how plant fertilization affects whole aphid-parasitoid food webs in both simple and complex landscapes, allowing for further improvements in natural pest control.
The decomposition of terrestrial organic material such as leaf litter represents a fundamental ecosystem function in streams that delivers energy for local and downstream food webs. Although agriculture dominates most regions in Europe and fungicides are applied widely, effects of currently used fungicides on the aquatic decomposer community and consequently the leaf decomposition rate are largely unknown. Also potential compensation of such hypothesised adverse effects due to nutrients or higher average water temperatures associated with climate change are not considered. Moreover, climate change is predicted to alter the community of aquatic decomposers and an open question is, whether this alteration impacts the leaf decomposition rate. The current projects follows a tripartite design to answer these research questions. Firstly, a field study in a vine growing region where fungicides are applied in large amounts will be conducted to whether there is a dose-response relationship between the exposure to fungicides and the leaf decomposition rate. Secondly, experiments in artificial streams with field communities will be carried out to assess potential compensatory mechanisms of nutrients and temperature for effects of fungicides. Thirdly, field experiments with communities exhibiting a gradient of taxa sensitive to climate change will be used to investigate potential climate-related effects on the leaf decomposition rate.
Subproject 3 will investigate the effect of shifting from continuously flooded rice cropping to crop rotation (including non-flooded systems) and diversified crops on the soil fauna communities and associated ecosystem functions. In both flooded and non-flooded systems, functional groups with a major impact on soil functions will be identified and their response to changing management regimes as well as their re-colonization capability after crop rotation will be quantified. Soil functions corresponding to specific functional groups, i.e. biogenic structural damage of the puddle layer, water loss and nutrient leaching, will be determined by correlating soil fauna data with soil service data of SP4, SP5 and SP7 and with data collected within this subproject (SP3). In addition to the field data acquired directly at the IRRI, microcosm experiments covering the broader range of environmental conditions expected under future climate conditions will be set up to determine the compositional and functional robustness of major components of the local soil fauna. Food webs will be modeled based on the soil animal data available to gain a thorough understanding of i) the factors shaping biological communities in rice cropping systems, and ii) C- and N-flow mediated by soil communities in rice fields. Advanced statistical modeling for quantification of species - environment relationships integrating all data subsets will specify the impact of crop diversification in rice agro-ecosystems on soil biota and on the related ecosystem services.
In soils and sediments there is a strong coupling between local biogeochemical processes and the distribution of water, electron acceptors, acids, nutrients and pollutants. Both sides are closely related and affect each other from small scale to larger scale. Soil structures such as aggregates, roots, layers, macropores and wettability differences occurring in natural soils enhance the patchiness of these distributions. At the same time the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of these important parameters is difficult to access. By applying non-destructive measurements it is possible to overcome these limitations. Our non-invasive fluorescence imaging technique can directly quantity distribution and changes of oxygen and pH. Similarly, the water content distribution can be visualized in situ also by optical imaging, but more precisely by neutron radiography. By applying a combined approach we will clarify the formation and architecture of interfaces induces by oxygen consumption, pH changes and water distribution. We will map and model the effects of microbial and plant root respiration for restricted oxygen supply due to locally high water saturation, in natural as well as artificial soils. Further aspects will be biologically induced pH changes, influence on fate of chemicals, and oxygen delivery from trapped gas phase.
Previous studies indicated that the development and biogeochemistry of paddy soils relates to the parent material, thus the original soil paddies derive from. The proposed research focuses on redox-mediated changes in mineral composition and mineral-associated organic matter (OM) during paddy transformation of different soils. We plan to subject soil samples to a series of redox cycles, in order to mimic paddy soil formation and development. Soils with strongly different properties and mineral composition as well as at different states of paddy transformation; ranging from unchanged soils to fully developed paddy soils, are to be included. We hypothesize that dissolved organic matter is one key driver in redox-mediated transformations, serving as an electron donator as well as interacting with dissolved metals and minerals. The extent of effects shall depend on the parent soil's original mineral assemblage and organic matter and their mutual interactions. The experimental paddy soil transformation will tracked by analyses of soil solutions, of the (re-)distribution of carbon (by addition of 13C-labelled rice straw), of indicative biomolecules (sugars, amino sugars, fatty acids, lignin) and of minerals (including the redox state of Fe). For analyses of organic matter as well as of mineral characteristics we plan to utilize EXAFS and XPS, for Fe-bearing minerals also Mößbauer spectroscopy. This approach of experimental pedology seems appropriate to give insight into the major factors during paddy soil formation and development.
The geomagnetic field shields our habitat against solar wind and radiation from space. Due to the geometry of the field, the shielding in general is weakest at high latitudes. It is also anomalously weak in a region around the south Atlantic known as South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), and the global dipole moment has been decreasing by nearly 10 percent since direct measurements of field intensity became possible in 1832. Due to our limited understanding of the geodynamo processes in Earths core, it is impossible to reliably predict the future evolution of both dipole moment and SAA over the coming decades. However, lack of magnetic field shielding as would be a consequence of further weakening of dipole moment and SAA region field intensity would cause increasing problems for modern technology, in particular satellites, which are vulnerable to radiation damage. A better understanding of the underlying processes is required to estimate the future development of magnetic field characteristics. The study of the past evolution of such characteristics based on historical, archeo- and paleomagnetic data, on time-scales of centuries to millennia, is essential to detect any recurrences and periodicities and provide new insights in dynamo processes in comparison to or in combination with numerical dynamo simulations. We propose to develop two new global spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models, spanning 1 and 10 kyrs, respectively, and designed in particular to study how long the uninterrupted decay of the dipole moment has been going on prior to 1832, and if the SAA is a recurring structure of the field.We will combine for the first time all available historical and archeomagnetic data, both directions and intensities, in a spherical harmonic model spanning the past 1000 years. Existing modelling methods will be adapted accordingly, and existing data bases will be complemented with newly published data. We will further acquire some new archeomagnetic data from the Cape Verde islands from historical times to better constrain the early evolution of the present-day SAA. In order to study the long-term field evolution and possible recurrences of similar weak field structures in this region, we will produce new paleomagnetic records from available marine sediment cores off the coasts of West Africa, Brazil and Chile. This region is weakly constrained in previous millennial scale models. Apart from our main aim to gain better insights into the previous evolution of dipole moment and SAA, the models will be used to study relations between dipole and non-dipole field contributions, hemispheric symmetries and large-scale flux patterns at the core-mantle boundary. These observational findings will provide new insights into geodynamo processes when compared with numerical dynamo simulation results.Moreover, the models can be used to estimate past geomagnetic shielding above Earths surface against solar wind and for nuclide production from galactic cosmic rays.
This project aims at analysing the influence of competing national and international bureaucracies on the fragmentation of the international forest regime complex (IFRC). Its objectives are: - describing the political dimension of fragmentation of the IFRC programme- explaining the political dimension of fragmentation based on the model of bureaucratic politics- analysing the steering consequences resulting from fragmentation - trans-disciplinary design of solutions for coping with political aspects of fragmentationBuilding on the bureaucratic politics approach these objectives will be pursued by testing the linking hypothesis: Interest and influence of the bureaucracies cause a fragmented programme of the IFRC. This programme supports the goal of profitable timber production but keeps the decision about biodiversity and CO2 sequestration open hindering the effective steering by the IFRC. The project develops an analytical framework consisting of the following independent variables: competing national and competing international bureaucracies, elected politicians, national and international non-state actors and media discourses. The fragmentation of the political programme of the IFRC is the overall dependent variable. This project will analyse the influence of bureaucracies and their coalitions on fragmentation at the international level as well as in national case studies in Sweden, Poland and Germany. The other independent variables will be covered by sub-projects 2, 3 and 4. The findings will be linked to the other political and to the economic and technic-ecological sub projects in order to contribute to the multi-disciplinary description and explanation of fragmentation and its steering consequences.
Whether primordial bodies in the solar system possessed internally-generated dynamos is a fundamental constraint to understand the dynamics and timing of early planetary formation. Paleointensity studies on several meteorites reveal that their host planets possessed magnetic fields within an order-of magnitude of the present Earths field. Interpretation of paleointensity data relies heavily on fundamental knowledge of the magnetic properties of the magnetic carriers, such as the single to multidomain size threshold or how the saturation magnetization varies as a function of grain size, yet very little knowledge exists about these key parameters for some of the main magnetic recorders in meteorites: the iron-nickel alloys. Moreover, most meteorites have experienced some amount of shock during their histories, yet the consequence of even very small stresses on paleointensity data is poorly known.We wish to fill these gaps by magnetically characterizing Fe-Ni alloys as a function of grain size and by determining how absolute and relative paleointensity data are biased by strain levels lower than those petrologically observable (less than 4-5 GPa). For example, our preliminary work shows that an imposed stress of 0.6 GPa will reduce absolute paleointensity estimates by 46Prozent for single domain magnetite-bearing rocks. In general, paleointensity determinations possess inherent disadvantages regarding measurement precision and the inordinate amount of human time investment. We intend to overcome these limitations by extending and improving our fully automated magnetic workstation known as the SushiBar.
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