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In the last decades agricultural policy has gained increasingly in complexity. Nowadays it influences the food and agricultural sector from the global market down to the farm level. Widespread research questions, like the impact of the WTO negotiations on the farm structure, most often require comprehensive modeling frameworks. Thus, different types of models are utilized according to their comparative advantages and combined in a strategically useful way to more accurately represent micro and macro aspects of the food and agricultural sector. Consequently, in recent years we have seen an increase in the development and application of model linkages. Given this background, the overall objective of this subproject is a systematic sensitivity analysis of model linkages that gradually involves more and more characteristics of the linkage and the corresponding transfer of results between models. In addition, the project aims to answer the following specific question: How does structural change at the farm level influence aggregate supply and technical progress? Under which conditions is it possible to derive macro-relationships from micro-relationships? How does the aggregation level influence the model results and how can possible problems be overcome? This procedure is used to quantify the effects and to derive conditions for optimal interaction of the connected models. The analysis is based on the general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the farm group model FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System) which are employed in conjunction to analyze the effects of WTO negotiations on the farm level.
Background: An increasing frequency of massive flooding along the lower Yangtse River in China ended in a disastrous catastrophe in summer 1998 leaving several thousand people homeless, more than 3.600 dead and causing enormous economic damage. Inappropriate land-use techniques and large scale timber felling in the water catchment of the upper Yangtse and its feeder streams were stated to be the main causes. Immediate timber cutting bans were imposed and investigations on land use patterns were initiated by the Chinese Government. The Institute for World Forestry of the Federal Research Centre for Forestry and Forest Products was approached by the Yunnan Academy of Forestry in Kunming to exchange experiences and to cooperate scientifically in the design and application of appropriate afforestation and silvicultural management techniques in the water catchment area of the Yangtse. This cooperation was initiated in 1999 and is based on formal agreements in the fields of agrarian research between the German and Chinese Governments. Objectives: The cooperation was in the first step focussing on the identification of factors which caused the enormous floodings. After their identification measures of prevention were determined and put into practice. In this context experiences made in past centuries in the alpine region of central Europe served as an incentive and example for similar environmental problems and solutions under comparable conditions. Relevant key questions of the cooperation project were: - Analysis of forest related factors influencing the recent floodings of the Yangtse, - Analysis and evaluation of silvicultural management experiences from central Europe for know-how transfer, - Evaluation of rehabilitation measures for successful application in Yunnan, - Dissemination of knowledge through vocational training. Results: - Frequent wild grazing of husbandry is a key factor for forest degeneration beyond unsustainable timber harvests, forest fires and insect calamities leading to increased water run-off in the mountainous region of Yunnan; - Browsing of cattle interrupts succession thus avoiding natural regeneration and leaving a logging ban ineffective; - Mountain pasture in the Alps had similar effects in the past in central Europe. The introduction of controlled grazing has led to an ecologically compatible coexistence of pasture and ecology. Close-to-nature forestry can have positive effects in this sensitive environment. - Afforestation with site adopted broadleaves and coniferous tree species was implemented on demonstration level using advanced techniques in Yunnan.
Existing models of soil organic matter (SOM) formation consider plant material as the main source of SOM. Recent results from nuclear magnetic resonance analyses of SOM and from own incubation studies, however, show that microbial residues also contribute to a large extent to SOM formation. Scanning electron microscopy showed that the soil mineral sur-faces are covered by numerous small patchy fragments (100 - 500 nm) deriving from microbial cell wall residues. We will study the formation and fate of these patchy fragments as continuously produced interfaces in artificial soil systems (quartz, montmorillonite, iron oxides, bacteria and carbon sources). We will quantify the relative contributions of different types of soil organisms to patchy fragment formation and elucidate the effect of redox con-ditions and iron mineralogy on the formation and turnover of patchy fragments. The develop-ment of patchy fragments during pedogenesis will be followed by studying soil samples from a chronosequence in the forefield of the retreating Damma glacier. We will characterize chemical and physical properties of the patchy fragments by nanothermal analysis and microscale condensation experiments in an environmental scanning electron microscope. The results will help understanding the processes at and characteristics of biogeochemical interfaces.
The decomposition of terrestrial organic material such as leaf litter represents a fundamental ecosystem function in streams that delivers energy for local and downstream food webs. Although agriculture dominates most regions in Europe and fungicides are applied widely, effects of currently used fungicides on the aquatic decomposer community and consequently the leaf decomposition rate are largely unknown. Also potential compensation of such hypothesised adverse effects due to nutrients or higher average water temperatures associated with climate change are not considered. Moreover, climate change is predicted to alter the community of aquatic decomposers and an open question is, whether this alteration impacts the leaf decomposition rate. The current projects follows a tripartite design to answer these research questions. Firstly, a field study in a vine growing region where fungicides are applied in large amounts will be conducted to whether there is a dose-response relationship between the exposure to fungicides and the leaf decomposition rate. Secondly, experiments in artificial streams with field communities will be carried out to assess potential compensatory mechanisms of nutrients and temperature for effects of fungicides. Thirdly, field experiments with communities exhibiting a gradient of taxa sensitive to climate change will be used to investigate potential climate-related effects on the leaf decomposition rate.
Soil microorganisms can mobilize and immobilize phosphorus (P), and therefore strongly affect the availability of P to plants. In this project we hypothesize that the ratio of labile P to microbial P increases during the transition from acquiring to recycling ecosystems. Microbial and plant P uptake will be studied with 33P that will be quantified in microbial and plant biomass as well as in lipids. To what extent microorganisms immobilize and mobilize P during decomposition of soil organic matter will be explored with a 14C/33P labeled monoester. Seasonal dynamics of actual and potential P mineralization (33P dilution and phosphatase activity), and microbial P immobilization will be studied with soils of the transition from acquiring to recycling ecosystems. The contribution of litter-derived P will be explored in a litter exclusion experiment in the field. Spatial patterns of microbial and plant P mineralization in the rhizosphere will be explored by analyses of areas of high acid and alkaline (=microbial-derived) phosphatase activity by soil zymography, and their relations with areas of high rhizodeposition (14C imaging). In conclusion, we will analyse mechanisms of actual and potential microbial P mineralization and immobilization, localization, and consequences for P uptake by plants.
The geomagnetic field shields our habitat against solar wind and radiation from space. Due to the geometry of the field, the shielding in general is weakest at high latitudes. It is also anomalously weak in a region around the south Atlantic known as South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), and the global dipole moment has been decreasing by nearly 10 percent since direct measurements of field intensity became possible in 1832. Due to our limited understanding of the geodynamo processes in Earths core, it is impossible to reliably predict the future evolution of both dipole moment and SAA over the coming decades. However, lack of magnetic field shielding as would be a consequence of further weakening of dipole moment and SAA region field intensity would cause increasing problems for modern technology, in particular satellites, which are vulnerable to radiation damage. A better understanding of the underlying processes is required to estimate the future development of magnetic field characteristics. The study of the past evolution of such characteristics based on historical, archeo- and paleomagnetic data, on time-scales of centuries to millennia, is essential to detect any recurrences and periodicities and provide new insights in dynamo processes in comparison to or in combination with numerical dynamo simulations. We propose to develop two new global spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models, spanning 1 and 10 kyrs, respectively, and designed in particular to study how long the uninterrupted decay of the dipole moment has been going on prior to 1832, and if the SAA is a recurring structure of the field.We will combine for the first time all available historical and archeomagnetic data, both directions and intensities, in a spherical harmonic model spanning the past 1000 years. Existing modelling methods will be adapted accordingly, and existing data bases will be complemented with newly published data. We will further acquire some new archeomagnetic data from the Cape Verde islands from historical times to better constrain the early evolution of the present-day SAA. In order to study the long-term field evolution and possible recurrences of similar weak field structures in this region, we will produce new paleomagnetic records from available marine sediment cores off the coasts of West Africa, Brazil and Chile. This region is weakly constrained in previous millennial scale models. Apart from our main aim to gain better insights into the previous evolution of dipole moment and SAA, the models will be used to study relations between dipole and non-dipole field contributions, hemispheric symmetries and large-scale flux patterns at the core-mantle boundary. These observational findings will provide new insights into geodynamo processes when compared with numerical dynamo simulation results.Moreover, the models can be used to estimate past geomagnetic shielding above Earths surface against solar wind and for nuclide production from galactic cosmic rays.
This project aims at analysing the influence of competing national and international bureaucracies on the fragmentation of the international forest regime complex (IFRC). Its objectives are: - describing the political dimension of fragmentation of the IFRC programme- explaining the political dimension of fragmentation based on the model of bureaucratic politics- analysing the steering consequences resulting from fragmentation - trans-disciplinary design of solutions for coping with political aspects of fragmentationBuilding on the bureaucratic politics approach these objectives will be pursued by testing the linking hypothesis: Interest and influence of the bureaucracies cause a fragmented programme of the IFRC. This programme supports the goal of profitable timber production but keeps the decision about biodiversity and CO2 sequestration open hindering the effective steering by the IFRC. The project develops an analytical framework consisting of the following independent variables: competing national and competing international bureaucracies, elected politicians, national and international non-state actors and media discourses. The fragmentation of the political programme of the IFRC is the overall dependent variable. This project will analyse the influence of bureaucracies and their coalitions on fragmentation at the international level as well as in national case studies in Sweden, Poland and Germany. The other independent variables will be covered by sub-projects 2, 3 and 4. The findings will be linked to the other political and to the economic and technic-ecological sub projects in order to contribute to the multi-disciplinary description and explanation of fragmentation and its steering consequences.
Although global pesticide use increases steadily, our field-data based knowledge regarding exposure of non-target ecosystems is very restricted. Consequently, this meta-analysis will for the first time evaluate the worldwide available peer-reviewed information on agricultural insecticide concentrations in surface water or sediment and test the following two hypotheses: I) Insecticide concentrations in the field largely exceed regulatory threshold levels and II) Additional factors important for threshold level exceedances can be quantified using retrospective meta-analysis. A feasibility study using a restricted dataset (n = 377) suggested the significance of the expected results, i.e. an threshold level exceedance rate of more than 50Prozent of the detected concentrations. Subsequent to a comprehensive database search in the peer-reviewed literature of the past 60 years, analysis of covariance with the relevant threshold level exceedance as the continuous dependent variable (about 10,000 cases) will be performed and the impact of significant predictor variables will be quantified. Parameters not yet considered in pesticide exposure assessment will be included as independent variables, such as compound class, environmental regulatory quality, and sampling design. The simultaneous presence of several insecticide compounds as a well as their metabolites will also be considered in the evaluation. The present approach may provide an innovative and integrated view on the potential environmental side effects of global high-intensity agriculture and in particular of pesticides use.
The development of sustainable and efficient energy conversion processes at interfaces is at the center of the rapidly growing field of basic energy science. How successful this challenge can be addressed will ultimately depend on the acquired degree of molecular-level understanding. In this respect, the severe knowledge gap in electro- or photocatalytic conversions compared to corresponding thermal processes in heterogeneous catalysis is staggering. This discrepancy is most blatant in the present status of predictive-quality, viz. first-principles based modelling in the two fields, which largely owes to multifactorial methodological issues connected with the treatment of the electrochemical environment and the description of the surface redox chemistry driven by the photo-excited charges or external potentials.Successfully tackling these complexities will advance modelling methodology in (photo)electrocatalysis to a similar level as already established in heterogeneous catalysis, with an impact that likely even supersedes the one seen there in the last decade. A corresponding method development is the core objective of the present proposal, with particular emphasis on numerically efficient approaches that will ultimately allow to reach comprehensive microkinetic formulations. Synergistically combining the methodological expertise of the two participating groups we specifically aim to implement and advance implicit and mixed implicit/explicit solvation models, as well as QM/MM approaches to describe energy-related processes at solid-liquid interfaces. With the clear objective to develop general-purpose methodology we will illustrate their use with applications to hydrogen generation through water splitting. Disentangling the electro- resp. photocatalytic effect with respect to the corresponding dark reaction, this concerns both the hydrogen evolution reaction at metal electrodes like Pt and direct water splitting at oxide photocatalysts like TiO2. Through this we expect to arrive at a detailed mechanistic understanding that will culminate in the formulation of comprehensive microkinetic models of the light- or potential-driven redox process. Evaluating these models with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations will unambiguously identify the rate-determining and overpotential-creating steps and therewith provide the basis for a rational optimization of the overall process. As such our study will provide a key example of how systematic method development in computational approaches to basic energy sciences leads to breakthrough progress and serves both fundamental understanding and cutting-edge application.
Groundwater contamination by organic compounds represents a widespread environmental problem. The heterogeneity of geological formations and the complexity of physical and biogeochemical subsurface processes, often hamper a quantitative characterization of contaminated aquifers. Compound specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) has emerged as a novel approach to investigate contaminant transformation and to relate contaminant sources to downgradient contamination. This method generally assumes that only (bio)chemical transformations are associated with isotope effects. However, recent studies have revealed isotope fractionation of organic contaminants by physical processes, therefore pointing to the need of further research to determine the influence of both transport and reactive processes on the observed overall isotope fractionation. While the effect of gasphase diffusion on isotope ratios has been studied in detail, possible effects of aqueous phase diffusion and dispersion have received little attention so far.The goals of this study are to quantify carbon (13C/12C) and, for chlorinated compounds, chlorine (37Cl/35Cl) isotope fractionation during diffusive/dispersive transport of organic contaminants in groundwater and to determine its consequences for source allocation and assessment of reactive processes using isotopes. The proposed research is based on the combination of high-resolution experimental studies, both at the laboratory (i.e. zero-, one- and two-dimensional systems) and at the field scales, and solute transport modeling. The project combines the expertise in the field of contaminant transport with the expertise on isotope methods in contaminant hydrogeology.
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