In the last decades agricultural policy has gained increasingly in complexity. Nowadays it influences the food and agricultural sector from the global market down to the farm level. Widespread research questions, like the impact of the WTO negotiations on the farm structure, most often require comprehensive modeling frameworks. Thus, different types of models are utilized according to their comparative advantages and combined in a strategically useful way to more accurately represent micro and macro aspects of the food and agricultural sector. Consequently, in recent years we have seen an increase in the development and application of model linkages. Given this background, the overall objective of this subproject is a systematic sensitivity analysis of model linkages that gradually involves more and more characteristics of the linkage and the corresponding transfer of results between models. In addition, the project aims to answer the following specific question: How does structural change at the farm level influence aggregate supply and technical progress? Under which conditions is it possible to derive macro-relationships from micro-relationships? How does the aggregation level influence the model results and how can possible problems be overcome? This procedure is used to quantify the effects and to derive conditions for optimal interaction of the connected models. The analysis is based on the general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the farm group model FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System) which are employed in conjunction to analyze the effects of WTO negotiations on the farm level.
The present-day configuration of Indonesia and SE Asia is the results of a long history of tectonic movements, volcanisms and global eustatic sea-level changes. Not indifferent to these dynamics, fauna and flora have been evolving and dispersing following a complicate pattern of continent-sea changes to form what are today defined as Sundaland and Wallacea biogeographical regions. The modern intraannual climate of Indonesia is generally described as tropical, seasonally wet with seasonal reversals of prevailing low-level winds (Asian-Australian monsoon). However at the interannual scale a range of influences operating over varying time scales affect the local climate in respect of temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. Vegetation generally reflects climate and to simplify it is possible to distinguish three main ecological elements in the flora of Malaysia: everwet tropical, seasonally dry tropical (monsoon) and montane. Within those major ecological groups, a wide range of specific local conditions caused a complex biogeography which has and still attract the attention of botanists and biogeographers worldwide. Being one of the richest regions in the Worlds in terms of species endemism and biodiversity, Indonesia has recently gone through intensive transformation of previously rural/natural lands for intensive agriculture (oil palm, rubber, cocoa plantations and rice fields). Climate change represents an additional stress. Projected climate changes in the region include strengthening of monsoon circulation and increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall and drought events. The ecological consequences of these scenarios are hard to predict. Within the context of sustainable management of conservation areas and agro-landscapes, Holocene palaeoecological and palynological studies provide a valuable contribution by showing how the natural vegetation present at the location has changed as a consequence of climate variability in the long-term (e.g. the Mid-Holocene moisture maximum, the modern ENSO onset, Little Ice Age etc.). The final aim of my PhD research is to compare the Holocene history of Jambi province and Central Sulawesi. In particular: - Reconstructing past vegetation, plant diversity and climate dynamics in the two study areas Jambi (Sumatra) and Lore Lindu National Park (Sulawesi) - Comparing the ecological responses of lowland monsoon swampy rainforest (Sumatra) and everwet montane rainforests (Sulawesi) to environmental variability (vulnerability/resilience) - Investigating the history of human impact on the landscape (shifting cultivation, slash and burn, crop cultivation, rubber and palm oil plantation) - Assessing the impact and role of droughts (El Niño) and fires - Adding a historical perspective to the evaluation of current and future changes.
Organotin and especially butyltin compounds are used for a variety of applications, e.g. as biocides, stabilizers, catalysts and intermediates in chemical syntheses. Tributyltin (TBT) compounds exhibit the greatest toxicity of all organotins and have even been characterized as one of the most toxic groups of xenobiotics ever produced and deliberately introduced into the environment. TBT is not only used as an active biocidal compound in antifouling paints, which are designed to prevent marine and freshwater biota from settlement on ship hulls, harbour and offshore installations, but also as a biocide in wood preservatives, textiles, dispersion paints and agricultural pesticides. Additionally, it occurs as a by-product of mono- (MBT) and dibutyltin (DBT) compounds, which are used as UV stabilizer in many plastics and for other applications. Triphenyltin (TPT) compounds are also used as the active biocide in antifouling paints outside Europe and furthermore as an agricultural fungicide since the early 1960s to combat a range of fungal diseases in various crops, particularly potato blight, leaf spot and powdery mildew on sugar beet, peanuts and celery, other fungi on hop, brown rust on beans, grey moulds on onions, rice blast and coffee leaf rust. Although the use of TBT and TPT was regulated in many countries world-wide from restrictions for certain applications to a total ban, these compounds are still present in the environment. In the early 1970s the impact of TBT on nontarget organisms became apparent. Among the broad variety of malformations caused by TBT in aquatic animals, molluscs have been found to be an extremely sensitive group of invertebrates and no other pathological condition produced by TBT at relative low concentrations rivals that of the imposex phenomenon in prosobranch gastropods speaking in terms of sensitivity. TBT induces imposex in marine prosobranchs at concentrations as low as 0,5 ng TBT-Sn/L. Since 1993, for the littorinid snail Littorina littorea a second virilisation phenomenon, termed intersex, is known. In female specimens affected by intersex the pallial oviduct is transformed of towards a male morphology with a final supplanting of female organs by the corresponding male formations. Imposex and intersex are morphological alterations caused by a chronic exposure to ultra-trace concentrations of TBT. A biological effect monitoring offers the possibility to determine the degree of contamination with organotin compounds in the aquatic environment and especially in coastal waters without using any expensive analytical methods. Furthermore, the biological effect monitoring allows an assessment of the existing TBT pollution on the basis of biological effects. Such results are normally more relevant for the ecosystem than pure analytical data. usw.
Sauropod dinosaurs represent one of the most important components of Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate faunas, yet their early evolution and diversification in the Jurassic is still poorly understood. Furthermore, most of the pertinent data so far comes from Early and Middle Jurassic rocks in eastern Asia. The only abundant basal sauropod material reported from the Western Hemisphere so far comes from the Middle Jurassic Cañadón Asfalto Formation of Chubut province, Argentina, from where two species, Patagosaurus fariasi and Volkheimeria chubutensis, have been described. Especially the first of these taxa has figured prominently in basal sauropod phylogenies. However, recent research suggests that more sauropods are represented in the original material referred to this species, and intensive fieldwork in the rocks that have yielded these materials has resulted in the recovery of a wealth of new material. Thus, the objective of this project is a revision of the original materials of Patagosaurus as well as an incorporation of new materials. The alpha taxonomy of the sauropods from the Cañadón Asfalto Formation will be established, detailed osteological descriptions of the different taxa provided and their significance for our understanding of early sauropod evolution will be evaluated.
Die Beobachtungen der Radio Science Experimente Mars Express Radio Science, Mars Global Surveyor Radio Science und Venus Express Radio Science liefern eine sehr große Datenbasis für die Elektronendichteverteilung der Tagionosphäre von Mars und Venus. In der Laufzeit des Original-Antrags erfolgte die Ableitung von Profileigenschaften/Umgebungsparametern und die Entwicklung eines schnellen, flexiblen zeitunabhängigen photochemischen Modells der ionosphärischen Elektronendichte (IonA-1) für Mars (Neutralatmosphäre: Mars Climate Database) und Venus (Neutralatmosphäre: VenusGRAM). Der Vergleich der beobachteten und modellierten MaRS und VeRa Parameter des ionosphärischen Hauptmaximums (M2/V2) ergaben für Mars global eine exzellente Übereinstimmung, aber nicht für Venus (unrealistische VenusGRAM Neutralatmosphäre, Peter et al., 2014). Für die Modellierung kleinskaliger Ionosphärenmerkmale wird jedoch die individuelle Übereinstimmung der jeweiligen M2/V2 Höhen und Breiten benötigt, da dies auf Ähnlichkeiten zwischen realer und Modellatmosphäre zur Zeit der Beobachtung hinweist. Für die Modellierung von Meteorschichten unterhalb der Sekundärschicht M1/V1 wurden Fallstudien mit entsprechenden MaRS Profilen in Kombination mit einem Modell für Meteorschichten (IonA/MSDM) durchgeführt. MSDM berücksichtigt die Deponierung von Mg und Fe in eine Atmosphäre und simuliert die Bildung von Metallionen durch Photoionisation/Ladungsaustausch. Ein zusätzlich entwickeltes hydrostatisches 1D Modell der Neutralatmosphäre für ionosphärischen Höhen (NIA) bildet als flexiblere Neutralatmosphäre mit kleinskaligem Höhengitter die Basis für die Anwendung von IonA auf einen größeren Beobachtungsdatensatz. Die Weiterentwicklung von IonA-1 zu einem zeitabhängigen photochemischen Modell mit komplexem Reaktionsschema (Iona-2) ermöglicht die Modellierung von ionosphärischen Ionen. Der Fortsetzungsantrag soll NIA und IonA-2 koppeln, um ein detaillierteres Verständnis der Wechselwirkung zwischen den Ionosphären und Neutralatmosphären in ionosphärischen Höhen zu erreichen. Die Radio Science Beobachtungen der unteren Neutralatmosphäre erfolgen fast zeitgleich mit den Ionosphärenbeobachtungen und bietet so eine erste Abschätzung der Neutraldichte für NIA. Das gekoppelte Modell der Neutralatmosphäre/Ionosphäre mit konsistenter Berechnung der Neutral, Ionen- und Elektronentemperaturen (a) deckt den transportdominierten Bereich der Ionosphäre oberhalb von M2/V2 ab, (b) liefert eine realistischere Modellierung der Anomalien unterhalb von M1/V1, (c) schätzt den Beitrag der sekundären Ionisation in M1/V1/M2/V2 ab, (d) liefert Erklärungen für den sog. Bulge, eine anomale Anhäufung von Elektronen in der Topside und (e) stellt mögliche Zustände der Neutralatmosphäre in ionosphärischen Höhen während der Beobachtungen zur Verfügung. Der letzte Punkt dient der Weiterentwicklung von globalen Zirkulationsmodellen, besonders für Venus, da die Datenlage im entsprechenden Höhenbereich sehr schlecht ist.
The vegetation of East and South African savannahs has been shaped by the complex interaction of geo-biophysical processes and human impact. For both regions a controversial discussion is pertinent, as to whether massive degradation threatens the sustainability of livelihoods in these regions. Rangeland vegetation is mainly affected by environmental conditions (soil and climate) and by livestock management. Extent and interaction of these drivers are not well understood but have profound impacts on the resilience and vulnerability of these systems to be shifted toward unfavourable degraded or bush encroached states. The project aims to analyse and model rangeland vegetation in response to range management including livestock, soil quality and climatic conditions and to assess the impacts of changes in these conditions on the resilience and vulnerability of rangeland systems. Field measurements, remote sensing of vegetation patterns and dynamics and simulation modelling will be used to understand the dynamics of rangeland vegetation. We will use the 'fast' or 'state' variables potential of pastures to produce palatable biomass, the variability of this production, and the system's potential to recover from disturbance impact as indicators of resilience. 'slow' variables that control (or drive) the 'fast' variables such as management, climate and soil variables are recorded in cooperation with other subprojects as with A1 for soil variables. Results of the project will show which management activities are most favourable for individual regions to sustain plant production in the long term.
Ziel der Forschungsarbeit ist die Klassifizierung von Boden-Biozönosen in ausgewählten Feldrainen. In drei Naturräumen (Lössböden der Jülicher Börde, Muschelkalkböden in Mainfranken und pleistozäne Sande bei Leipzig) werden typische Lebensgemeinschaften von Collembola und Gamasina (Taxozönosen) beschrieben. Der wesentliche Unterschied zu anderen Klassifikations-Ansätzen liegt in der induktiven Vorgehensweise: Biozönosen werden allein aufgrund der Artenzusammensetzung an den Standorten typisiert. Vegetationskundliche Kriterien dienen als entscheidendes Hilfsmittel zur Vorauswahl von Flächen mit ähnlichen Standortbedingungen. Hierbei wird gleichzeitig die aufgenommene Vegetation als ein weiteres Taxon der zu beschreibenden Biozönose angesehen. Die typische Artenzusammensetzung ist das integrierte Ergebnis aller denkbaren ökologischen Vorgänge. Ein Ziel der Arbeit ist somit die prospektive Formulierung von Erwartungswerten für Collembolen und Raubmilben auf der Basis vegetationskundlicher Daten. Es sollte daher möglich sein, dieses Mehrarten-System mit hoher Sensibilität zur Bioindikation von Standortveränderungen einzusetzen. Die Kenntnis der Artenstruktur wiederkehrender Lebensgemeinschaften kann der funktionellen Ökosystemforschung hilfreiche Hinweise bieten.
Methoden des terrestrischen Carbon Dioxide Removal (tCDR) wie Aufforstung und Biomasseplantagen werden zuweilen als effektive, 'grüne' und sichere Varianten des Klimaengineering (CE) verstanden wegen ihrer Möglichkeit, die natürliche CO2-Aufnahme durch die Biosphäre zu erhöhen, und ihrer denkbaren ökonomischen Tragfähigkeit. Erkenntnisse aus der ersten Phase des CE-LAND-Projekts legen indes nahe, dass tCDR aufgrund schwieriger erdsystemischer und ethischer Fragen ebenso kontrovers wie andere CE-Methoden ist. CO2-Budgetierungen und rein ökonomische Bewertungen sind daher um profunde Analysen der natürlichen Begrenzungen, der Auswirkungen auf das Erdsystem mit damit verbundenen Unsicherheiten, der Tradeoffs mit anderen Land- und Wassernutzungen und der weitreichenden ethischen Implikationen von tCDR-Maßnahmen zu ergänzen. Analysen hypothetischer Szenarien der ersten Projektphase zeigen, dass effektives tCDR die Umwidmung großer Flächen voraussetzt, womit schwierige Abwägungsprozesse mit anderen Landnutzungen verbunden wären. Darüber hinaus zeigt sich, dass signifikante Nebenwirkungen im Klimasystem (außer der bezweckten Senkung der Weltmitteltemperatur) und in terrestrischen biogeochemischen Kreisläufen aufträten. CE-LAND+ bietet eine tiefergehende quantitative, räumlich explizite Evaluierung der nicht-ökonomischen Kosten einer Biosphärentransformation für tCDR. Potentielle Tradeoffs und Impakts wie auch die systematische Untersuchung von Unsicherheiten in ihrer Abschätzung werden mit zwei Vegetationsmodellen, einem Erdsystemmodell und, neu im Projekt, dynamischen Biodiversitätsmodellen analysiert. Konkret wird CE-LAND+ bisher kaum bilanzierte Tradeoffs untersuchen: einerseits zwischen der Maximierung der Flächennutzung für tCDR bzw. Biodiversitätsschutz, andererseits zwischen der Maximierung der Süßwasserverfügbarkeit für tCDR bzw. Nahrungsmittelproduktion sowie Flussökosysteme. Auch werden die (in)direkten Auswirkungen veränderten Klimas und tCDR-bedingter Landnutzungsänderungen auf Wasserknappheit (mit diversen Metriken und unter Annahme verschiedener Varianten des Wassermanagements) und Biodiversität quantifiziert. Die Tradeoffs und Impakts werden im Kontext von neben der Bekämpfung des Klimawandels formulierten globalen Nachhaltigkeitszielen - Biodiversitätsschutz, Wasser- und Ernährungssicherheit interpretiert - was sonst nicht im Schwerpunktprogramm vermittelt wird. Ferner wird das Projekt zu besserem Verständnis und besserer Quantifizierung von Unsicherheiten von tCDR-Effekten unter zukünftigem Klima beitragen. Hierzu untersucht es modellstrukturbedingte Unterschiede, Wachstum und Mortalität von tCDR-Pflanzungen unter wärmeren und CO2-reicheren Bedingungen und Wechselwirkungen zwischen tCDR-bezogenen Landnutzungsaktivitäten und Klima. Schließlich wird CE-LAND+ in Kooperationen innerhalb des Schwerpunktprogramms und mit einer repräsentativen Auswahl von Szenarien zur Evaluierung tCDR-bedingter Tradeoffs aus umweltethischer Sicht beitragen.
Periods of extreme geomagnetic change such as geomagnetic excursions have frequently occurred throughout geological time. Characterizing their behaviour is essential for a full understanding of the geodynamo and the interaction of Earths magnetic field and the space environment. We propose to model the global behaviour of Earths magnetic field between 10 and 50 ka using palaeomagnetic data. During this time the geomagnetic field showed significant variability in direction and intensity, including two well documented excursions: Laschamp and Mono Lake. No model currently exists that spans the total length of this time period, yet this period could provide great insights into the geodynamo. The ultimate goal of the project is to synthesize the results from our empirical modelling with those from numerical dynamo simulations, so that a deeper physical understanding of geodynamo processes can be gained. We will compile all sedimentary and volcanic palaeomagnetic data coupled with geochronological data spanning this period. This data will be added to a community available database along with all rock magnetic and sedimentological metadata. This will allow a detailed assessment of the data used in the modelling. Low quality palaeomagnetic data and erroneous age models may distort geomagnetic field structures generated by our new model and it is a key objective of this study to assess the fidelity of the palaeomagnetic and chronological data included in the modeling. Using this data we will construct a temporally continuous global spherical harmonic geomagnetic field model through a regularized least squares inversion of the data using spherical harmonics in space and cubic B splines in time. This model will enable assessment of the geomagnetic at the core-mantle boundary, the Earths surface and at elevated altitudes. Our key scientific objective is to determine where excursions fit into the spectrum of geomagnetic field variations and how the geodynamo processes that generate excursions differ from those that produce secular variation and reversals.
Populations of P. fortinii from allover Europe are examined using microsatellites to construct gene genealogies and infer evolutionary history. The tree-root endophyte Phialocephala fortinii s.l. (mitosporic Ascomycota) is the dominant colonizer of conifer root systems in forests in the northern hemisphere. P. fortinii s.l. is genetically highly diverse and forms a complex of several cryptic species. Recombination occurs or has occurred within cryptic species and to some extent also among them (introgression). Cryptic species occur sympatrically and they can form large thalli, but it remains unclear whether the observed patterns of spatial distribution reflect local climax situations or are the results of recent gene and genotype flow. One of the key objectives will be to estimate population genetic parameters (eg. migration rates, genotype flow, recombination) within and among populations of cryptic species in forests where man-mediated genotype flow can be excluded. Other key objectives are the determination of the number, frequency, distribution and evolutionary history of the cryptic species in Europe and to identify the driving forces for speciation. The approach will be multidisciplinary and will include standard mycological and microbiological methods as well as molecular genetic techniques such as microsatellite fingerprinting and DNA sequencing. The evolutionary history of haplotypes at both the population and species level will be reconstructed and the results will be compared with known patterns of pleistocenic glaciations and postglacial recolonization of host trees. The project will be a significant contribution to the understanding of the population and evolutionary genetics of a versatile and ecologically extremely successful fungal genus and it will shed light on the effects of pleistocenic and postglacial climatic changes on fungal speciation.