Other language confidence: 0.9225210054562235
Objective/Problems to be solved: It is every day experience in many European countries that the landscape is changing rapidly because of the multiplicity of demands on space made by e.g. agriculture, transport, recreation, city expansion. These human activities often develop at the expense of the habitats of wild plants and animals and their chances for survival resulting in a world wide decline in biodiversity. These conflicting demands on space require national but also European measures for the conservation of wildlife as detailed in the EU Habitats Directive and the Flora and Fauna Directive. A lot of conservation effort goes into restoring habitat quality, but we are now beginning to see that this is not enough to save rare and threatened species. This is simply because threatened species have dispersal problems in fragmented habitats. The remnant populations have become too small and too widely dispersed and these species therefore are unable to re-colonise the improved habitats. This is especially true for sessile long-lived organisms such as most plants. As a consequence an alarming, steadily increasing number of plant species appear on national red-data lists. What is lacking however, is an evaluation of the status of endangered plants on a European scale, considering their area of distribution as a whole, as plants have no nationality, in combination with an assessment of the chances for re-introduction as a conservation measure. Such a combination can help to make better environmental impact assessments and to reconcile conflicting demands on space. Scientific objectives and approach: The scientific objectives of the TRANSPLANT program are twofold: to investigate the extinction risks of plant species in fragmenting landscapes across Europe and secondly to develop scientifically sound re-introduction schemes and test their effectiveness. To achieve these goals, we will use a selected number of plant species that differ in their capacity to move across landscapes. This depends on two crucial traits: the longevity of adults and the dispersal capacity of seeds. The first trait determines the capacity to hold territory and function as a source of seeds in the landscape. The second trait affects the capacity to colonise new territory and settle elsewhere. Using these species as our guinea pigs we will built our expertise in a hierarchical, step-like fashion. First we need to know how isolation and small population size in remnants of these species have affected their genetic variation or in other words their capacity to adapt to changing environments. Than we will go on and measure longevity and dispersal capacity in the field in populations that differ in size and degree of isolation across their area of distribution. Prime Contractor: Katholieke Universiteit Nijmegen, Department of ecology and environment - Faculty of science; Nijmegen.
Objective/Problems to be solved: The functioning of ocean ecosystems and their interaction with the global carbon cycle and the climate system is not very well known. Ocean Biogeochemical Climate Models (OBCM's) are still too simplistic to adequately describe observed changes in ocean biology and chemistry in space and time. Therefore large uncertainties remain concerning the carbon up-take by the ocean which also limits the predictability of the future carbon up-take. Scientific objective and approach: The work outlined seeks to better model marine ecosystems and the sources and sinks of C, N and other elements within those systems, assuming that a number of factors (notably light, N, P, Si, Fe) are co-limiting plankton blooms. This goal will be achieved through a combination of laboratory experiments, fieldwork and modelling. Laboratory work will target the predominant algal species of the major taxonomic groups and determine their growth as a function of multiple stresses, such as limitations of iron, light and macro-nutrients. This data will then be used to refine and improve ocean ecosystem models, with the aim to more accurately replicating observations of the natural system. New realistic OBCM' s will be developed for budgeting and exchanges of both CO2 and DMS, implementing (I) co-limitation by 4 nutrients of 5 major taxonomic classes of phyto-plankton, (II) DMS (P) pathways, (III) global iron cycling, (IV) chemical forms of iron and (V) iron supply into surface waters. Input from below of iron from anoxic sediments of coastal margins will be assessed along a 2-D vertical section from Europe into the centre of the north Atlantic. Input from above of Fe (II) dissolved in rainwater from Sahara dust blown over the central Atlantic will be quantified at sea, and related to observed plankton production, CO2 gas exchange and DMS emission. Different chemical forms of iron will be analysed and rigorous certification of all Fe in seawater data will be ensured. For 2 major DMS-producing algal groups the life cycle, Fe limitation, export production, CO2 uptake and DMS emissions will be synthesised from existing literature and laboratory experiments. Experimental data will be fed into an ecosystem model. Also DMS (P) pathway modelling will be carried out being expanded with 3 other groups of algal and DMS (P) pathways. The extended ecosystem model will provide reliable output for CO2/DMS gas exchange being implemented into two existing OBCM' s. Next climate change scenario' notably changes in Fe inputs, will be run, with special attention to climatic feedback (warming) on the oceanic cycles and fluxes. Expected impacts: Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European states have committed them selves to the quantification and prediction of future trends in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.. Prime Contractor: Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Marine Chemistry and Geology; Den Burg/Netherlands.
Objective: Problems to be solved: There are still discrepancies between model prediction and observations of the year- round stratospheric ozone decline in mid and high latitudes. In summer, current models still severely overestimate ozone in the polar regions, and this appears as a major deficiency in our ability to model the complete ozone seasonal cycle. The springtime mid-latitude ozone depletion has not been satisfactorily modelled in a quantitative manner. This proposal hence aims at improving our understanding and modelling of ozone loss processes throughout spring and summer, in the northern mid and high latitudes. Scientific objectives and approach: The main scientific objective is to acquire a quantitative understanding of: (i) the mid-latitude ozone depletion accompanying the breakdown of the wintertime polar vortex, especially over Europe, and ii) the Arctic summer ozone deficit and its linkage to midlatitudes. The project relies on using an integrated approach combining ground-based and balloon-borne measurements, global satellite observations, as well as advanced chemical/dynamical modelling and data assimilation. Measurements of ozone, inert gases, or species actively involved in ozone chemistry, are made at three different stations in the Arctic throughout spring and summer. Observational techniques comprise ground-based lidar and infrared spectroscopic measurements, and light-weight balloon-borne instrumentation. Satellite observations complement these local, ground-based and in-situ measurements by allowing to characterise the global, evolving three-dimensional ozone distribution. The satellite data are globally integrated into a transport model through data assimilation. State-of-the-art numerical models are used to investigate the interaction of chemistry and mixing in the spring and summer stratosphere. These models are used to diagnose the ozone loss mechanisms and the overall transport of trace species in spring and summer. Correlative studies of the abundance of various trace species, either modelled or measured, allow to disentangle the effect of mixing from chemical sources and sinks. Expected impacts: The information to be provided by the field campaigns and model studies during SAMMOA will improve the quantification of ozone loss in the stratosphere, a key science priority in support of the Montreal protocol. This project will particularly impact on understanding of ozone depletion in spring and summer, when it is most harmful. It is indeed in the summertime, that human exposure to UV radiation is largest in middle latitudes. Modelling improvements shall result in better assessment and prediction of the ozone trend and recovery in support of regulatory protocols. Prime Contractor: Norwegian Institute for Air Research; Kjeller.
Objective/Problems to be solved: STACCATO is a comprehensive study of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) processes and their effect on atmospheric chemistry. STE is a key factor controlling the budget of ozone, water vapour and other substances in both the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Earlier studies of STE have concentrated primarily on the flux of air or trace constituents across the tropopause alone. Shallow exchange events are indeed partially reversible in nature and only produce compositional changes in the tropopause region. However, deep STE events are largely irreversible and have a highly significant and lasting impact on atmospheric chemistry through a substantial body of the atmosphere, even down to the earth's surface. Up until now, the importance of STE for the ozone budget relative to photochemical ozone formation from natural and anthropogenic precursor emissions, including those from aircraft, has remained uncertain. A comprehensive description of STE, which STACCATO seeks to provide, is thus a vital component for understanding the chemical composition of the atmosphere and its consequences. Scientific objectives and approach: STACCATO is undertaking a first detailed investigation of STE mixing of stratospheric and tropospheric air. Meteorological processes under investigation include the creation of fine-scale structures by chaotic advection, radiative decay of tracer filaments and mixing through turbulence in the free troposphere. The non-linear effect of this mixing on chemical processes is addressed with a box model as well as with a global model. The impact of STE on the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere, relative to other factors, is examined with two global chemistry models coupled to climate models. The fate of aircraft emissions is being addressed using passive tracer simulations and including these in the chemistry models. A new three-dimensional Lagrangian perspective of STE, focussing on deep exchange events, is being developed. The variability and recent trends of STE is being assessed, based on very high quality meteorological re-analysis data. Potential future changes to STE significance are being computed under scenarios of climate change obtained from simulations with two climate models. A major comparison of seven methods and models used to calculate STE is being carried out to find strengths and weaknesses of each approach and to identify reasons for discrepancies. A measurement dataset is being created to validate model results and to provide an independent estimate of the strength of STE. This includes the first long-term monitoring of two radionuclides, beryllium-7 and beryllium-10. Expected Impacts: Provision of an observational estimate of the strength of STE based on two years of radionuclide measurements. Analysis of the strength of STE and its variability during the last 15 years, based on Lagrangian models set up on meteorological re-analyses. Study of the possible changes in STE in a f
Objective/Problems to be solved: Tropospheric ozone has a dual role with respect to climatic changes. Ozone is itself a greenhouse gas and it also plays a key role in the production of the hydroxyl radical (OH), which controls the lifetime of many climatically important tropospheric gases. Tropospheric ozone and OH are produced as a result of photochemical processes, through reactions involving ozone precursors. The proposed project is defined in order to answer three main questions: first, can the surface emissions of ozone precursors, and their variability be accurately quantified? Second, how should the current observations of chemical species be optimally coupled with chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to quantify the global budgets of ozone precursors and ozone ? Third, how do future changes in surface emissions and proposed future scenarios influence the lifetime of greenhouse gases and ozone distribution ? The project will provide a quantitative basis for emissions, distributions and evolution of chemical tropospheric species for discussions related to policies aimed at improving the quality of air or at reduction of greenhouse species anthropogenic emissions. Scientific objectives and approach: The overall objective of the project is to quantify accurately the budget of ozone precursors using a combination of observations and state of the art CTM. The retrieval methods to derive accurately the tropospheric burdens of CO, CH4, NO2 and ozone from observations provided by the IMG/ADEOS and GOME instruments will be improved. High resolution inventories of emissions for ozone precursors will be developed. The ability of several European CTMs to reproduce current distributions will be assessed, through detailed comparisons between model results and observations. The impact of changes in ozone precursors on the tropospheric oxidising capacity and on the distribution of ozone will be quantified. The relative importance of anthropogenic versus natural emissions in the ozone production will be quantified. The inverse modelling approach for quantifying surface emissions will be further developed. These developments will yield an assessment of the accuracy of current inventories. The impact of emission mitigation policies on the distributions of methane and ozone will be quantified.. Expected impacts: The proposed project addresses issues that are central to our understanding of the causes of large-scale air pollution and climate change, and will provide a quantitative basis for reducing the environmental and climatic impact of human activities. The new tools and data bases we will develop will aid the understanding of changes in the composition of the atmosphere and their consequences. The emissions distributions we will optimise could be used as a starting point for discussions on emissions reduction policies... Prime Contractor: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FU 0005 - Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace; Guyancout/France.
Die hohen Ansprüche an die Qualität von Obst und Gemüse führen zu einer besonders geringen Tole-ranz für Beeinträchtigungen durch Schädlinge. Deshalb muss deren wirkungsvolle und umweltschonende Regulierung auch in Zukunft garantiert sein, selbst unter dem Einfluss des Klimawandels und beim Auftreten neuer invasiver Arten. Als Grundlage für die Überwachung und für neue Integrierte Bekämpfungsstrategien liefert das Tätigkeitsfeld Kenntnisse über die Biologie von Schädlingen (Insekten, Milben) und Nützlingen in den Agrarökosystemen des Obstbaus und des Freilandgemüsebaus. Es stellt Phänologiemodelle und Entscheidungshilfesysteme (Decision support systems DSS) für die Praxis und für die vorausschauende Beurteilung von Folgen des Klimawandels bereit, entwickelt biologische und biotechnische Pflanzenschutzmassnahmen und stellt die Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen sicher. Dies Arbeiten leisten signifikante Beiträge zu den thematischen Schwerpunkten 'Ökologische Intensivierung' sowie 'Klimaschutz und Anpassung an Klimawandel'. Die Leistungen erfolgen schwerpunktmässig im Bereich des Kernthemas 'Verbesserung der Pflanzenproduktion, insbesondere unter Einbezug von Pflanzenschutz, Sorten und Saat- und Pflanzgut'. In diesem Projekt werden Leistungen bei der Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen zur Verfügung gestellt (in Zusammenarbeit mit FB 12 Diagnostik und Risikobeurteilung Pflanzenschutz) und wissenschaftliche Unterstützung für die kantonalen Fachstellen geboten.
1. Schnelle und zuverlässige Informationen über potenzielle Risiken sind für die Entscheidungsfindung im Pflanzenschutz essenziell, weshalb die verwendeten Prognose- und Überwachungswerkzeuge auf Grundlage der Biologie der betreffenden Schadorganismen ausgebaut und kontinuierlich weiterentwickelt werden müssen. 2. Zudem ergeben sich, mit der als Fakt anerkannten Klimaänderung, massive Änderungen im Schadenspotenzial durch modifizierte Lebenszyklen vorhandener Arten oder durch invasive Arten. Das Prognosesystem SOPRA bietet die Möglichkeit für eine kontinuierliche Weiterentwicklung und Ergänzung an Bedeutung gewinnender Arten. 3. Die entwickelten Artmodelle können weiterhin genutzt werden, um zukünftige klimatische Szenarien zu analysieren. Durch die umfassende Verfügbarkeit und Zuverlässigkeit von SOPRA sind positive Verhaltensänderungen der Praxis zu erwarten. 4. Durch das optimale Timing von Pflanzenschutzmaßnahmen können unnötige PSM-Applikationen vermieden, das Risiko für die Entwicklung von Resistenzen gesenkt und PSM-Rückstände reduziert werden. Gleichzeitig werden Ressourcen sowie Arbeitszeit eingespart und damit die Konkurrenzfähigkeit der Schweizer Spezialkulturen erhöht. 5. Dabei werden mit Einbindung der klimatischen Szenarien zukünftige Probleme frühzeitig identifiziert und bewertet, um entsprechende Maßnahmen zur Erhaltung der Nachhaltigkeit im Pflanzenschutz einzuleiten.
Objective: One of the most dramatic and immediate impacts of climate variation is that on disease, especially the vector-borne diseases that disproportionally affect the poorest people in Africa. Although we can clearly see that, for example, an El Nino event triggers Rift Valley Fever epidemics, we remain poor at understanding why particular areas are vulnerable and how this will change in coming decades, since climate change is likely to cause entirely new global disease distributions. This applies to most vector borne disease. At the same time, we do not know currently the limit of predictability of the specific climate drivers for vector-borne disease using state-of-the-art seasonal forecast models, and how best to use these to produce skilful infection-rate predictions on seasonal timescales. The QWeCI project thus aims to understand at a more fundamental level the climate drivers of the vector-borne diseases of malaria, Rift Valley Fever, and certain tick-borne diseases, which all have major human and livestock health and economic implications in Africa, in order to assist with their short-term management and make projections of their future likely impacts. QWeCI will develop and test the methods and technology required for an integrated decision support framework for health impacts of climate and weather. Uniquely, QWeCl will bring together the best in world integrated weather/climate forecasting systems with heath impacts modelling and climate change research groups in order to build an end-to-end seamless integration of climate and weather information for the quantification and prediction of climate and weather on health impacts in Africa.
The aim of IMPRINTS is to contribute to reduce loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management for Flash Flood and Debris Flow (FF/DF) generating events, as well as to contribute to sustainable development through reducing damages to the environment. To achieve this ultimate objective the project is oriented to produce methods and tools to be used by emergency agencies and utility companies responsible for the management of FF/DF risks and associated effects. Impacts of future changes, including climatic, land use and socioeconomic will be analyzed in order to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures. Specifically, the consortium will develop an integrated probabilistic forecasting FF/ DF system as well as a probabilistic early warning and a rule-based probabilistic forecasting system adapted to the operational use by practitioners. These systems will be tested on five selected flash flood prone areas, two located in mountainous catchments in the Alps, and three in Mediterranean catchments. The IMPRINTS practitioner partners, risk management authorities and utility company managers in duty of emergency management in these areas, will supervise these tests. The development of such systems will be carried out using and capitalizing the results of previous and ongoing research on FF/DF forecasting and warning systems, in which several of the partners have played a prominent role. One major result of the project will be a operational prototype including the tools and methodologies developed under the project. This prototype will be designed under the premise of its ultimate commercialization and use worldwide. The consortium, covering all the actors involved in the complex chain of FF & DF forecasting, has been carefully selected to ensure the achievement of this. Specific actions to exploit and protect the results and the intellectual property of the partners have been also defined.
MODELKEY comprises a mulitdisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked and verified predictive modelling tools as well as state-of-the-art effect-assessment and analytical methods generally applicable to European freshwater and marine ecosystems: 1) to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of traditional and recently evolving pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems and their biodiversity at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale, 2) to provide early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo, 3) to provide a better understanding of cause-effect-relationships between changes in biodiversity and the ecological status, as addressed by the Water Framework Directive, and the impact of environmental pollution as causative factor, 4) to provide methods for state-of-the-art risk assessment and decision support systems for the selection of the most efficient management options to prevent effects on biodiversity and to prioritise contamination sources and contaminated sites, 5) to strengthen the scientific knowledge on an European level in the field of impact assessment of environmental pollution on aquatic eco-systems and their biodiversity by extensive training activities and knowledge dissemination to stakeholders and the scientific community. This goal shall be achieved by combining innovative predictive tools for modelling exposure on a river basin scale including the estuary and the coastal zone, for modelling effects on higher levels of biological organisation with powerful assessment tools for the identification of key modes of action, key toxicants and key parameters determining exposure. The developed tools will be verified in case studies representing European key areas including Mediterranean, Western and Central European river basins. An end-user-directed decision support system will be provided for cost-effective tool selection and appropriate risk and site prioritisation.
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