The majority of the worlds forests has undergone some form of management, such as clear-cut or thinning. This management has direct relevance for global climate: Studies estimate that forest management emissions add a third to those from deforestation, while enhanced productivity in managed forests increases the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to act as a sink for carbon dioxide emissions. However, uncertainties in the assessment of these fluxes are large. Moreover, forests influence climate also by altering the energy and water balance of the land surface. In many regions of historical deforestation, such biogeophysical effects have substantially counteracted warming due to carbon dioxide emissions. However, the effect of management on biogeophysical effects is largely unknown beyond local case studies. While the effects of climate on forest productivity is well established in forestry models, the effects of forest management on climate is less understood. Closing this feedback cycle is crucial to understand the driving forces behind past climate changes to be able to predict future climate responses and thus the required effort to adapt to it or avert it. To investigate the role of forest management in the climate system I propose to integrate a forest management module into a comprehensive Earth system model. The resulting model will be able to simultaneously address both directions of the interactions between climate and the managed land surface. My proposed work includes model development and implementation for key forest management processes, determining the growth and stock of living biomass, soil carbon cycle, and biophysical land surface properties. With this unique tool I will be able to improve estimates of terrestrial carbon source and sink terms and to assess the susceptibility of past and future climate to combined carbon cycle and biophysical effects of forest management. Furthermore, representing feedbacks between forest management and climate in a global climate model could advance efforts to combat climate change. Changes in forest management are inevitable to adapt to future climate change. In this process, is it possible to identify win-win strategies for which local management changes do not only help adaptation, but at the same time mitigate global warming by presenting favorable effects on climate? The proposed work opens a range of long-term research paths, with the aim of strengthening the climate perspective in the economic considerations of forest management and helping to improve local decisionmaking with respect to adaptation and mitigation.
The magnetosphere of a planet is controlled by a number of factors such as the intrinsic magnetic field, the atmosphere and ionosphere, and the solar wind. Different combinations of these control factors are at work at the terrestrial planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, hence they form a very suitable set for quantitative comparative studies. A significant intrinsic dipolar magnetic field is present only on Earth and on Mercury. However, the configuration at Mercury differs considerably from that at Earth because Mercury does not support an atmosphere and ionosphere, the dipolar field is much weaker, the solar wind denser, and the interplanetary magnetic field stronger. Both Mars and Venus have atmospheres but lack a global planetary magnetic field, with regional crustal magnetization being present on Mars. This proposal aims at investigating and comparing electrical current systems in the space environments of terrestrial planets using magnetic vector data collected by orbiting spacecraft such as Venus Express, Mars Global Surveyor, CHAMP (Earth), and MESSENGER (Mercury). We propose to construct data-driven and physically meaningful representations that reveal and quantify the influence of various control factors. To achieve this, we will tailor Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and other multivariate methods to the specifics of planetary magnetic field observations. In contrast to representations that build on predefined functions like spherical harmonics, basis functions in the EOF approach are derived directly from the data. EOFs are designed to extract dominant coherent variations for further interpretation in terms of known physical phenomena, and then, in a regression step, for modeling using suitable control variables. The EOF methodology thus allows quantifying the relative importance of control factors for each planet individually, and thus contributes to the solution of topical science questions. The resulting empirical models will facilitate comparative studies of current systems at the terrestrial planets.
Early generation plant breeding trials are often laid out according to unreplicated designs. Replicated checks may be used for error control, for example in augmented designs based on an incomplete block design for checks which are augmented with unreplicated entries. Traditional augmented designs require considerable resources to be spent on genotypes that are not themselves of interest. Therefore, it has been suggested to replace checks with partially replicated entries, leading to so-called prep designs. In the present proposal we suggest combining both ideas to develop what we call augmented prep designs. A non-trivial design problem arises when trials are to be performed at multiple locations. The main challenge then is how to augment the blocks so as to balance the number of pairwise concurrences. This task can be tackled in different ways based on the use (-arrays which are well-known as the basis for (-designs in fully replicated experiments. Furthermore, we also explore the refinement of designs when analysis by spatial models is envisioned. Robustness of the designs to the presence of genotype-environment interaction is also investigated.
The present-day configuration of Indonesia and SE Asia is the results of a long history of tectonic movements, volcanisms and global eustatic sea-level changes. Not indifferent to these dynamics, fauna and flora have been evolving and dispersing following a complicate pattern of continent-sea changes to form what are today defined as Sundaland and Wallacea biogeographical regions. The modern intraannual climate of Indonesia is generally described as tropical, seasonally wet with seasonal reversals of prevailing low-level winds (Asian-Australian monsoon). However at the interannual scale a range of influences operating over varying time scales affect the local climate in respect of temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. Vegetation generally reflects climate and to simplify it is possible to distinguish three main ecological elements in the flora of Malaysia: everwet tropical, seasonally dry tropical (monsoon) and montane. Within those major ecological groups, a wide range of specific local conditions caused a complex biogeography which has and still attract the attention of botanists and biogeographers worldwide. Being one of the richest regions in the Worlds in terms of species endemism and biodiversity, Indonesia has recently gone through intensive transformation of previously rural/natural lands for intensive agriculture (oil palm, rubber, cocoa plantations and rice fields). Climate change represents an additional stress. Projected climate changes in the region include strengthening of monsoon circulation and increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall and drought events. The ecological consequences of these scenarios are hard to predict. Within the context of sustainable management of conservation areas and agro-landscapes, Holocene palaeoecological and palynological studies provide a valuable contribution by showing how the natural vegetation present at the location has changed as a consequence of climate variability in the long-term (e.g. the Mid-Holocene moisture maximum, the modern ENSO onset, Little Ice Age etc.). The final aim of my PhD research is to compare the Holocene history of Jambi province and Central Sulawesi. In particular: - Reconstructing past vegetation, plant diversity and climate dynamics in the two study areas Jambi (Sumatra) and Lore Lindu National Park (Sulawesi) - Comparing the ecological responses of lowland monsoon swampy rainforest (Sumatra) and everwet montane rainforests (Sulawesi) to environmental variability (vulnerability/resilience) - Investigating the history of human impact on the landscape (shifting cultivation, slash and burn, crop cultivation, rubber and palm oil plantation) - Assessing the impact and role of droughts (El Niño) and fires - Adding a historical perspective to the evaluation of current and future changes.
The formation of biogeochemical interfaces in soils is controlled, among other factors, by the type of particle surfaces present and the assemblage of organic matter and mineral particles. Therefore, the formation and maturation of interfaces is studied with artificial soils which are produced in long-term biogeochemical laboratory incubation experiments (3, 6, 12, 18 months. Clay minerals, iron oxides and charcoal are used as major model components controlling the formation of interfaces because they exhibit high surface area and microporosity. Soil interface characteristics have been analyzed by several groups involved in the priority program for formation of organo-mineral interfaces, sorptive and thermal interface properties, microbial community structure and function. Already after 6 months of incubation, the artificial soils exhibited different properties in relation to their composition. A unique dataset evolves on the development and the dynamics of interfaces in soil in the different projects contributing to this experiment. An integrated analysis based on a conceptual model and multivariate statistics will help to understand overall processes leading to the biogeochemical properties of interfaces in soil, that are the basis for their functions in ecosystems. Therefore, we propose to establish an integrative project for the evaluation of data obtained and for publication of synergistic work, which will bring the results to a higher level of understanding.
Der Verlauf der atmosphärischen CO2-Konzentrationen während der vergangenen Klimazyklen ist durch ein Sägezahnmuster mit Maxima in Warmzeiten und Minima in Kaltzeiten geprägt. Es besteht derzeit Konsens, dass insbesondere der Süd Ozean (SO) eine Schlüsselfunktion bei der Steuerung der CO2-Entwicklung einnimmt. Allerdings sind die dabei wirksamen Mechanismen, die in Zusammenhang mit Änderungen der Windmuster, Ozeanzirkulation, Stratifizierung der Wassersäule, Meereisausdehnung und biologischer Produktion stehen, noch nicht ausreichend bekannt. Daten zur Wirkung dieser Prozesse im Wechsel von Warm- und Kaltzeiten beziehen sich bislang fast ausschließlich auf den atlantischen SO. Um ein umfassendes Bild der Klimasteuerung durch den SO zu erhalten muss geklärt werden, wie weit sich die aus dem atlantischen SO bekannten Prozesswirkungen auf den pazifischen SO übertragen lassen. Dies ist deshalb von Bedeutung, da der pazifische SO den größten Teil des SO einnimmt. Darüber hinaus stellt er das hauptsächliche Abflussgebiet des Westantarktischen Eisschildes (WAIS) in den SO dar. Im Rahmen des Projektes sollen mit einer neu entwickelten Proxy-Methode Paläoumwelt-Zeitreihen an ausgewählten Sedimentkernen von latitudinalen Schnitten über den pazifischen SO hinweg gewonnen werden. Dabei handelt es sich um kombinierte Sauerstoff- und Siliziumisotopenmessungen an gereinigten Diatomeen und Radiolarien. Es sollen erstmalig die physikalischen Eigenschaften und Nährstoffbedingungen in verschiedenen Stockwerken des Oberflächenwassers aus verschiedenen Ablagerungsräumen und während unterschiedlicher Klimabedingungen beschrieben werden. Dies umfasst Bedingungen von kälter als heute (z.B. Letztes Glaziales Maximum) bis zu wärmer als heute (z.B. Marines Isotopen Stadium, MIS 5.5). Die Untersuchungen geben Hinweise zur (1) Sensitivität des antarktischen Ökosystems auf den Eintrag von Mikronährstoffen (Eisendüngung), (2) Oberflächenwasserstratifizierung und (3) 'Silicic-Acid leakage'-Hypothese, und tragen damit zur Überprüfung verschiedener Hypothesen zur Klimawirksamkeit von SO-Prozessen bei. Die neuen Proxies bilden überdies Oberflächen-Salzgehaltsanomalien ab, die Hinweise zur Stabilität des WAIS unter verschiedenen Klimabedingungen geben. Darüber hinaus kann die Hypothese getestet werden, nach der der WAIS während MIS 5.5 vollständig abgebaut war. Die Projektergebnisse sollen mit Simulationen mit einem kombinierten biogeochemischen (Si-Isotope beinhaltenden) Atmosphäre-Ozean-Zirkulations-Modell aus einem laufenden SPP1158-DFG Projekt an der CAU Kiel (PI B. Schneider) verglichen werden. Damit sollen die jeweiligen Beiträge der Ozeanzirkulation und der biologischen Produktion zum CO2-Austausch zwischen Ozean und Atmosphäre getrennt und statistisch analysiert werden. Informationen zu Staubeintrag, biogenen Flussraten, physikalischen Ozeanparametern und zur Erstellung von Altersmodellen stehen durch Zusammenarbeit mit anderen (inter)nationalen Projekten zur Verfügung.
Die Europäische Kommission wird voraussichtlich eine Folgenabschätzung sowie einen Gesetzesentwurf zur indirekten Landnutzungsänderung (ILUC) in Zusammenhang mit der Biokraftstoffproduktion veröffentlichen. Die Einführung einer EU-Richtlinie zur indirekten Landnutzungsänderung in der Richtlinie für Erneuerbare Energien (RED) und der Richtlinie zur Kraftstoffqualität (FQD), hat möglicherweise Einfluss auf derzeitige Investitionen und Arbeitsplätze in der europäischen Biokraftstoffindustrie. Im Auftrag der Umweltorganisation Transport & Environment hat Ecofys untersucht, inwieweit der Biokraftstoffsektor unter dem Gesichtspunkt der Bestandswahrung gegen die Einführung einer ILUC-Richtlinie auf EU-Ebene geschützt werden kann. Dies wird mit dem Begriff 'Grandfathering' beschrieben. Der Bericht beginnt mit einem Überblick über den EU Biokraftstoffmarkt und -sektor. Er analysiert die verschiedenen Auswirkungen möglicher ILUC Maßnahmen in Hinblick auf den Sektor und geht der Frage nach, inwieweit gegenwärtige Investitionen und Arbeitsplätze geschützt werden müssen. In einem zweiten Schritt untersucht der Bericht die Grandfathering Klausel, die aktuell in der RED und FQD Richtlinie enthalten ist, sowie weitere mögliche Grandfathering Optionen. Die Studie kommt zu dem Schluss, dass die Einführung einer ILUC Politikmaßnahme bei gleichzeitigem Erhalt der Arbeitsplätze und der Investitionen in Biokrafstoffproduktion möglich ist, wenn das Biokraftstoffverbrauchsniveau von 2010-2012 bis zum Jahr 2020 von der ILUC Richtlinie ausgenommen wird. Dies würde bedeuten, dass eine mögliche ILUC Richtlinie sich lediglich auf die zukünftige Biokraftsoffproduktion ab 2020 bezieht. Die ILUC-Maßnahme würde den gesamten Biokraftstoffverbrauch in der EU nicht deutlich verringern, da die Ziele der RED und FQD für 2020 unverändert bleiben. Dennoch könnten auf den EU Biodieselsektor Herausforderungen zukommen, wenn z. B. neue ILUC-Faktoren eingeführt oder der Mindestschwellenwert für Treibhausgasausstoß angehoben würde. Ein Grandfathering des derzeitigen Biokraftstoffverbrauchs würde dem entgegenwirken und heutige Investitionen und Arbeitsplätze sichern. Die Ergebnisse der Studie wurden am 22. März 2012 dem Europäischen Parlament vorgestellt.
Introduction: In Malaysia, excessive nutrients from livestock waste management systems are currently released to the environment. Particularly, large amounts of manure from intensive pig production areas are being excreted daily and are not being fully utilised. Alternatively, the excess manure can be applied as an organic fertiliser source in neighbouring cropping systems on the small landholdings of the pig farms to improve soil fertility so that its nutrients will be available for crop uptake instead of being discharged into water streams. Thus, there is a need for better tools to analyse the present situation, to evaluate and monitor alternative livestock production systems and manure management scenarios, and to support farmers in the proper management of manure and fertiliser application. Such tools are essential to quantify, and assess nutrient fluxes, manure quality and content, manure storage and application rate to the land as well as its environmental effects. Several computer models of animal waste management systems to assist producers and authorities are now available. However, it is felt that more development is needed to adopt such models to the humid tropics and conditions of Malaysia and other developing countries in the region. Objectives: The aim is to develop a novel model to evaluate nutrient emission scenarios and the impact of livestock waste at the landscape or regional level in humid tropics. The study will link and improve existing models to evaluate emission of N to the atmosphere, and leaching of nutrients to groundwater and surface water. The simulation outputs of the models will be integrated with a GIS spatial analysis to model the distribution of nutrient emission, leaching and appropriate manure application on neighbouring crop lands and as an information and decision support tool for the relevant users.
In the Bavarian Forest National Park a brief, but intense storm event on 1 August 1983 created large windfall areas. The windfall ecosystems within the protection zone of the park were left develop without interference; outside this zone windfall areas were cleared of dead wood but not afforested. A set of permanent plots (transect design with 10 to 10 m plots) was established in 1988 in spruce forests of wet and cool valley bottoms in order to document vegetation development. Resampling shall take place every five years; up to now it was done in 1993 and 1998. On cleared areas an initial raspberry (Rubus idaeus) shrub community was followed by pioneer birch (Betula pubescens, B. pendula) woodland, a sequence well known from managed forest stands. In contrast to this, these two stages were restricted to root plates of fallen trees in uncleared windfalls; here shade-tolerant tree species of the terminal forest stages established rather quickly from saplings that had already been present in the preceeding forest stand. Soil surface disturbances are identified to be causal to the management pathway of forest development, wereas the untouched pathway is caused by relatively low disturbance levels. The simulation model FORSKA-M is used to analyse different options of further stand development with a simulation time period of one hundred years.
Perennial fodder cropping potentially increases subsoil biopore density by formation of extensive root systems and temporary soil rest. We will quantify root length density, earthworm abundance and biopore size classes after Medicago sativa, Cichorium intybus and Festuca arundinacea grown for 1, 2 and 3 years respectively in the applied research unit's Central Field Trial (CeFiT) which is established and maintained by our working group. Shoot parameters including transpiration, gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence will frequently be recorded. Precrop effects on oilseed rape and cereals will be quantified with regard to crop yield, nutrient transfer and H2-release. The soil associated with biopores (i.e. the driloshpere) is generally rich in nutrients as compared to the bulk soil and is therefore supposed to be a potential hot spot for nutrient acquisition. However, contact areas between roots and the pore wall have been reported to be low. It is still unclear to which extent the nutrients present in the drilosphere are used and which potential relevance subsoil biopores may have for the nutrient supply of crops. We will use a flexible videoscope to determine the root-soil contact in biopores. Nitrogen input into the drilosphere by earthworms and potential re-uptake of nitrogen from the drilosphere by subsequent crops with different rooting systems (oilseed rape vs. cereals) will be quantified using 15N as a tracer.
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