Objective: CARBOCHANGE will provide the best possible process-based quantification of net ocean carbon uptake under changing climate conditions using past and present ocean carbon cycle changes for a better prediction of future ocean carbon uptake. We will improve the quantitative understanding of key biogeochemical and physical processes through a combination of observations and models. We will upscale new process understanding to large-scale integrative feedbacks of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. We will quantify the vulnerability of the ocean carbon sources and sinks in a probabilistic sense using cutting edge coupled Earth system models under a spectrum of emission scenarios including climate stabilisation scenarios as required for the 5th IPCC assessment report. The drivers for the vulnerabilities will be identified. The most actual observations of the changing ocean carbon sink will be systematically integrated with the newest ocean carbon models, a coupled land-ocean model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and fully fledged Earth system models through a spectrum of data assimilation methods as well as advanced performance assessment tools. Results will be optimal process descriptions and most realistic error margins for future ocean carbon uptake quantifications with models under the presently available observational evidence. The project will deliver calibrated future evolutions of ocean pH and carbonate saturation as required by the research community on ocean acidification in the EU project EPOCA and further projects in this field. The time history of atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes past, present, and future will be synthesised globally as well as regionally for the transcontinental RECCAP project. Observations and model results will merge into GEOSS/GEO through links with the European coordination action COCOS and will prepare the marine branch of the European Research Infrastructure ICOS.
Objective: Past4Future will combine multidisciplinary paleoclimate records from ice cores, marine cores, speleothems, pollen and other records, concentrating on a global distribution of the records, to reconstruct climate change and variability during the present interglacial (the Holocene) and the last interglacial (known as the Eemian in northwestern Europe and as marine isotope stage 5e in the marine sediment records). The records will be combined in integrated analyses aided by proxy modeling and assimilation, to gain understanding of the climate processes involved in the dynamics of interglacial climates. Earth system models (ESM) including physical and biogeochemical processes will be applied to simulate the past and present interglacial climate, and to confront and intercompare the simulations with climate changes as observed from the palaeodata; this will both advance the models and our understanding of the dynamics and predictability of the climate system. Focus will be on the most recent two interglacial periods, as these provide the highest-resolved most comprehensive data records. Moreover the last interglacial represents a situation where the mean state was warmer than at present in large regions due to orbital forcing, thereby allowing tests of climate system sensitivity to constrain projections of potential future ice sheet, sea-level, circulation and biogeochemical changes. The data and Earth system model results will be used improve our capabilities to project future global and regional warming from a better understanding of relevant paleoclimates, especially in relation to sea level changes, sea ice changes and thermohaline circulation changes. The Past4Future program will draw together a world leading team of European and international partners in a concerted effort to advance our knowledge on the causes, processes and risks of abrupt changes in warm periods, such as those projected for the current and the next century. The program will inform the international debate on climate system stability and the dissemination of results will be targeted to both citizens and governmental and non-governmental stakeholders. It will leave a legacy of improved understanding of past drivers of sea level changes, changes of sea ice, and of greenhouse gas concentrations, and it will train a new generation of young climate researchers to further advance research and improved future predictions for the benefit of society and our capacity to mitigate and adapt to climate changes.
Over the last century, a considerable increase in global, hemispheric and regional average surface temperatures has been observed, along with trends in temperature and precipitation extremes. The first decade of the 21st century was globally the warmest in the instrumental temperature record and has brought a number of remarkable weather and climate extremes to European countries and Russia which had considerable impacts on society and ecosystems. Among the most recent of these extreme events are the cold winter of 2009/2010, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the flooding in Central Europe in 2010. Further extreme events affecting Europe and Russia are extreme air pollution, strong marine storms and wind waves and fast permafrost thawing. In this project, we shall investigate if these extremes are already affected by and in which way they will change in the future in response to global warming. Third, we shall assess the representation of extreme events in climate models, in particular as a function of model resolution, and on regional scales. Fourth, we shall develop future scenarios of extreme events in Europe and Russia including the associated uncertainties. To address these questions, we shall carry out case study simulations, sensitivity integrations and future projections with global and very high-resolution regional climate models in different forcing and coupling settings. These experiments and additional millennial-long control runs will be validated against observational data by means of modern statistical methods, in particular extreme value theory, vector-generalised regression models and cyclone tracking algorithms. The regional climate model projections will be bias-corrected with a special focus on correcting the magnitudes of extreme events. The project will extend the existing collaboration between the participating institutes on largescale climate phenomena towards extreme events on a regional scale. By bringing together expertise in regional climate, global climate as well as statistical modelling and data analysis, a unique research team will be created capable to address a wide range of scientific questions regarding extreme events under climate change. The project will lead to a direct knowledge transfer from the IFM-GEOMAR to the Russian teams in global climate modelling and extreme value theory, and vice versa in regional climate modelling. The anticipated results will improve the understanding of the mechanisms underlying extreme events and their variability and can be used to better predict potential future events. The improved predictability on decadal to multi-decadal time scales and the provision of biascorrected scenarios of future climate extremes and their associated uncertainties will help end users and stake holders to implement adaptation measures to changes in the statistics of extreme events, and will help policy makers to assess the required degree of climate change mitigation. (abridged text)
The Scientific Need: We are poised on the brink of discovering the important processes that connect changes at the solar surface with features in the geospace environment and ultimately with climate variability. These connections are key to understanding complex planetary environments, and the general elements that enable planets to sustain life. Scientific breakthroughs in all these areas await advances in cyberinfrastructure that will allow the worldwide research community to access international data sets, distributed sensor networks, virtual observatories, advanced computational and visualization facilities, the most sophisticated Sun-to-Earth community models available, and to communicate with each other across discipline and national boundaries. No single organization is poised to make these breakthroughs, operate these instruments, construct these models, develop and maintain research support facilities. This is a worldwide endeavor with diverse participation and stakeholders. At issue is the ability to address the frontiers of system-level science. Why Now? The past decade has seen the creation of a remarkable new capability to observe conditions simultaneously in regions from Sun-to-Earth using combinations of worldwide space and ground-based observing platforms. Simultaneously, new models of the solar dynamo that enable physics-based predictions of solar magnetic variability, suites of cutting-edge Sun-to-Earth coupled models, and 'whole atmosphere' models that simulate tropospheric climate with linkages all the way to the upper atmosphere and space weather have become available along with the necessary advances in computer hardware and software. Open data policies and a developing system of virtual observatories are making diverse data sets widely available to the research community. The availability of data by itself, however, is not enough.
Aktive Gasaustrittsstellen (Seeps) am Hikurangi Margin zeigen eine starke Variabilität. Bereits bekannte Seeps sollen mit geochemischen und geophysikalischen Methoden weiter untersucht werden. Ziel ist es, die bisherigen Erkenntnisse über Variationen durch möglichst engmaschige Vermessungsnetze zu erweitern und 3-D Vermessungsstrategien anzuwenden. Entlang des Hikurangi Margins sind Seeps nicht nur von möglichen tektonischen Variationen beeinflusst, sondern treten auch in sehr unterschiedlichen Wassertiefen auf. Mit dem Partner BGR ist auch der Einsatz mariner elektromagnetischer Vermessungen möglich, die besonders in der Verbindung mit der Seismik zu wesentlich detaillierteren Tiefenaussagen über Hydratverteilungen führen. Es wurden fünf Hauptarbeitsgebiete ausgewählt, die nach der vorliegenden Datengrundlage am besten für die dargelegten wissenschaftlichen Ziele geeignet sind. Hierzu sind neue seismische Techniken (P-Cable 3-D, DeepTow), elektromagnetische Messungen, ein 3-D Grid von Sensorischen und geochemischen Methanmessungen in der Wassersäule und geoakustisches 3-D-Flare Imaging vorgesehen. Neben den kurzzeitigen Messungen während der Forschungsfahrt wird der Vergleich mit früheren Fahrten (SO-191, FS TANGAROA) auch Stichproben für langfristige Variabilitäten bieten.
Objective: The overall goal of the European Project on Ocean Acidification (EPOCA) is to fill the numerous gaps in our understanding of the effects and implications of ocean acidification. EPOCA aims to document the changes in ocean chemistry and biogeography across space and time. Paleo-reconstruction methods will be used on several archives, including foraminifera and deep-sea corals, to determine past variability in ocean chemistry and to tie these to present-day chemical and biological observations. EPOCA will determine the sensitivity of marine organisms, communities and ecosystems to ocean acidification. Molecular to biochemical, physiological and ecological approaches will be combined with laboratory and field-based perturbation experiments to quantify biological responses to ocean acidification, assess the potential for adaptation, and determine the consequences for biogeochemical cycling. Laboratory experiments will focus on key organisms selected on the basis of their ecological, biogeochemical or socio-economic importance. Field studies will be carried out in systems deemed most sensitive to ocean acidification. Results on the chemical, biological and biogeochemical impacts of ocean acidification will be integrated in biogeochemical, sediment and coupled ocean-climate models to better understand and predict the responses of the Earth system to ocean acidification. Special attention will be paid to the potential feedbacks of the physiological changes in the carbon, nitrogen, sulfur and iron cycles. EPOCA will assess uncertainties, risks and thresholds ('tipping points') related to ocean acidification at scales ranging from sub-cellular, to ecosystem and from local to global. It will also assess pathways of CO2 emissions required to avoid these thresholds and describe the state change and the subsequent risk to the marine environment and Earth system should these emissions be exceeded.
This project aims to improve methods for the calculation of natural and biogenic emissions from various sources and the assessment of impacts on air quality policy implementation. Air pollutants from natural und biogenic sources contribute to ambient air concentrations in the same way as anthropogenic emissions, however, the uncertainty of the estimation of these natural and biogenic emissions is much higher than for anthropogenic emissions. At the same time, with anthropogenic emissions currently decreasing due to emission control activities in many sectors, the relative importance of other sources increases. Thus, it is essential to develop new and improve existing methods for the quantification of emissions from natural and biogenic sources and to use new and improved input data. The project takes into account the latest research results on air pollutant emissions and their impacts, covering all relevant substances (NOx, SOx, NH3, PM, NMVOC; CH4, CO, DMS) from natural and biogenic sources in Europe, e.g. the results from the 'Nature Panel' within the UNECE Task Force Emission Inventories and Projection, and includes anthropogenic emissions officially reported to EMEP by countries. Furthermore, the National Reports for the NEC directive for SOx, NOx, NH3 and NMVOC will be taken into account, as well as the results of EU research projects such as NOFRETETE or the results from the EUROTRAC Subproject GENEMIS. Satellite data will be used e.g. for the improvement of calculations from forests in general as well as forest fires in particular. In order to assess the impacts of emissions from natural and biogenic sources on air quality policy implementation, the project is designed to advance the current state-of-the-art in methodology for the calculation of natural and biogenic emissions. This includes the analysis of temporal and spatial variabilitys and the assessment of uncertainties and sensitivities. In addition, the influence of the improved natural and biogenic emissions on the concentration of pollutants calculated with atmospheric models will be analysed using the model CHIMERE. Finally, policy strategies that are currently under discussion within the EC CAFÉ programme and in the frame of the UNECE CLRTAP to reduce anthropogenic emissions will be analysed in the view of these new results.
Objective: Observational records show that the global climate is changing and ongoing changes are also visible in Central Eastern Europe. About 64Prozent of all catastrophic events in Europe since 1980 can directly be attributed to weather and climate extremes. Climate change projections show even an increasing likelihood of extremes. Certainly negative impacts of climate change will involve significant economic looses in several regions of Europe, while others may bring health or welfare problems somewhere else. Within CLAVIER three representative Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) will be studied in detail: Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Researches from 6 countries and different disciplines will identify linkages between climate change and its impact on weather patterns with consequences on air pollution, extremes events, and on water resources. Furthermore, an evaluation of the economic impact on agriculture, tourism, energy supply and the public sector will be conducted. This is of increasing importance for CEEC, which are currently facing a rapid economic development, but also for the European Union as e.g. Romania's and Bulgaria's high vulnerability from extreme events such as floods will impact not only the respective economic goals for joining the EU but also the EU solidarity fund. CLAVIER will focus on ongoing and future climate changes in Central and Eastern European Countries using measurements and existing regional scenarios to determine possible developments of the climate and to address related uncertainty. In addition, climate projections with very high detail will be carried out for CEEC to fulfil the need for a large amount of detail in time and space, which is inherent in local and regional impact assessment.
Der Sonderforschungsbereich 512 befasst sich mit dem Klimasystem des Nordatlantiks, d.h. seinen physikalischen Zuständen und deren Variabilitäten auf verschiedenen Zeitskalen. Ziel ist es, dabei die Wechselwirkungen zwischen den Subsystemen Atmosphäre-Eis-Ozean- Landoberflächen zu verstehen, um damit die Ursachen der Variabilität zu quantifizieren. Die Untersuchungen des Sonderforschungsbereichs gliedern sich in zwei Teile. Zum einen werden theoretische Analysen der Variabilität des gekoppelten nordatlantischen Klimasystems mit Hilfe von Modellen vorgenommen. Ein wichtiger Aspekt ist dabei die Bedeutung stochastischer und dynamisch-deterministischer Wechselwirkungen zwischen Atmosphäre und Ozean. Zum anderen wird die Rolle bestimmter Regionen und Prozesse im nordatlantischen Klimasystem untersucht. Diese Arbeiten konzentrieren sich vorwiegend auf den Bereich Arktischer Ozean/Europäisches Nordmeer, eine Region, die sehr sensitiv auf globale Klimasignale reagiert und signifikant auf das nordatlantische Klimasystem zurückwirkt. Die Untersuchungen basieren methodisch auf realitätsnahen Regionalmodellen und auf Analysen selbst erhobener und existierender Daten aus Atmosphäre und Ozean. Der Sonderforschungsbereich greift sich aus dem weiten Spektrum der Klimavariabilitäten den Bereich von Jahreszeiten bis Dekaden heraus. Fernziel ist es, Aussagen zur Vorhersage kurzfristiger Klimaschwankungen zu treffen.
Sedimente des Skagerrak aus der Zeit des Holozaen zeichnen die palaeozeanographische Entwicklung an der Grenze zwischen Ozean und dem kontinental gepraegtem, brackigen Binnenmeer Ostsee auf. An engstaendig datierten Kernen sollen Informationen zur Entwicklung des Klimas im Einzugsbereich der Ostsee und im Uebergang zum Nordatlantik erarbeitet wereden: Sedimentphysikalische Eigenschaften werden als Ausdruck der Stroemungsintensitaeten am Boden rekonstruiert. Isotopische und organisch-geochemische Signale (d13C und d15N von organischem Material sowie d18O und d13Cvon Foraminiferen; Alkenon-Muster als Temperatur-und Salzanzeiger) in den Sedimenten stehen stellvertretend fuer Bedingungen an der Wasseroberflaeche. Wir zielen auf eine Abschaetzung natuerlicher Umweltveraenderungen im Ostseeraum als Folge von zyklischen und azyklischen Klimaveraenderungen langer ( groesser100 Jahre) und mittlerer ( groesser10 Jahre) Perioden fuer die letzten 2000 Jahre. Dieser Beitrag erstellt realistische proxy-Daten fuer parallele Modellexperimente im Rahmen des HGF-Projekts 'Natuerliche Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten bis 10.000 Jahre vor heute'.
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