Farm structures are often characterized by regional heterogeneity, agglomeration effects, sub-optimal farm sizes and income disparities. The main objective of this study is to analyze whether this is a result of path dependent structural change, what the determinants of path dependence are, and how it may be overcome. The focus is on the German dairy sector which has been highly regulated and subsidized in the past and faces severe structural deficits. The future of this sector in the process of an ongoing liberalization will be analyzed by applying theoretical concepts of path dependence and path breaking. In these regards, key issues are the actual situation, technological and market trends as well as agricultural policies. The methodology will be based on a participative use of the agent-based model AgriPoliS and participatory laboratory experiments. On the one hand, AgriPoliS will be tested as a tool for stakeholder oriented analysis of mechanisms, trends and policy effects. This part aims to analyze whether and how path dependence of structural change can be overcome on a sector level. In a second part, AgriPoliS will be extended such that human players (farmers, students) can take over the role of agents in the model. This part aims to compare human agents with computer agents in order to overcome single farm path dependence.
The project DIGSTER - Map and Go (Digital Based Terrain Mapping) aims at the technical aspects of digital terrrain mapping. For many questions in administration, planning and expertise terrrain mappings are indispensable. The whole process starting with the data acquisition in the field and ending with map products will be digitally performed by the system. Therefore, a platform appropriate for the use in the field (PDA) is combined with technologies from the disciplines of satellite navigation, remote sensing, communication, and mobile geoinformation systems. For DIGSTER a lot of practical applications already exist in connection with policies and directives on the national and also European level.
Research question: Agri-environment schemes play an increasingly important role in European CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) to support biodiversity and environment in agricultural landscapes. They have been implemented since 1992 and now cost a yearly 1.7 billion Euro. Still, there is no conclusive evidence that these schemes actually do contribute to the conservation of particularly biodiversity. The primary objective of this project is to evaluate the (cost-) effectiveness of European agri-environment schemes in protecting biodiversity and to determine the primary processes that determine their effectiveness. This project furthermore aims to determine how CAP may be introduced in candidate EU-members without unacceptable loss of biodiversity. It will provide simple guidelines how researchers, governmental authorities may efficiently evaluate agri-environmental measures. Aim: Agri-environment schemes have been used to protect biodiversity and environment in agricultural areas since 1992. Their effectiveness has never been reliably evaluated. This project aims to evaluate the (cost-)effectiveness of agri-environment schemes with respect to biodiversity conservation in five European countries. It will determine the proper scales that have to be addressed for conservation efforts for a range of species groups. It will determine the most important environmental factors that influence the effectiveness of the schemes. Based on this, recommendations will be made how the effectiveness of schemes may be improved and simple guidelines will be produced how ecological effects of agri-environment schemes can be evaluated efficiently by governmental authorities or other institutions. The ecological effects of the introduction of CAP in a candidate EU-member will be investigated to reduce negative side effects of anticipated land-use changes Scientific methods: We will examine the effectiveness of agri-environment schemes by surveying pairs of fields: a field with an agri-environment scheme and a nearby field that is conventionally managed. In five countries, in each country in three areas, and in each area on seven pairs of fields the species richness of birds, plants and three insect groups (pollinators, herbivores, predators) will be determined. Effects of schemes on pollination efficiency and pest control will be examined using indicator communities. Correlative studies will examine the effects of landscape structure, land-use intensity and species pool on the effectiveness of agri-environmental measures. The spatial scale that is relevant to nature conservation efforts will be investigated via the spatial distribution of species groups. The results will be used to formulate recommendations how to improve the effectiveness of agri-environment schemes and to construct a set of simple guidelines how schemes can be evaluated efficiently yet reliably.
Deviant behaviour on various levels of the food supply chain may cause food risks. It entails irregular technological procedures which cause (increased probabilities of) adverse outcomes for buyers and consumers. Besides technological hazards and hitherto unknown health threats, moral hazard and malpractice in food businesses represent an additional source of risk which can be termed 'behavioural food risk'. From a regulatory perspective, adverse outcomes associated with deviance represent negative externalities that are caused by the breaking of rules designed to prevent them. From a rational choice perspective, the probability of malpractice increases with the benefits for its authors. It decreases with the probability of detection and resulting losses. It also decreases with bonds to social norms that protect producers from yielding to economic temptations. The design of mechanisms that reduce behavioural risks and prevent malpractice requires an understanding of why food businesses obey or do not obey the rules. This project aims to contribute to a better understanding of malpractice on the restaurant/retail level through comparative case studies and statistical analyses of food inspection and survey data. Accounting for the complexity of economic behaviour, we will not only look at economic incentives but consider all relevant behavioural determinants, including social context factors.
Biokraftstoffe können eine Möglichkeit sein, die Kohlenstoffintensität des Schiffsverkehrs zu verringern und zugleich die Auswirkungen der durch Schifffahrt verursachten Emissionen zu mildern. Im Auftrag der Europäischen Agentur für die Sicherheit des Seeverkehrs hat Ecofys untersucht, inwieweit Biokraftstoffe fossile Kraftstoffe in der Schifffahrt ersetzen können. Die technischen, wirtschaftlichen, organisatorischen und die Nachhaltigkeitsaspekte einer Einführung von Biokraftstoffen wurden durch theoretische Forschung einerseits und Interviews mit Marktakteuren andererseits untersucht. Die Studie belegt, dass Biokraftstoffe in der Lage wären, die Schifffahrtsindustrie kohlenstoffneutral zu halten und luft- und wasserschädliche Emissionen zu verhindern. Die größten Hindernisse für die Nutzung von Biokraftstoffen im Schiffsverkehr liegen dabei entgegen ursprünglicher Annahmen nicht im technischen Bereich, sondern vielmehr in politischen und organisatorischen Fragestellungen. Basierend auf diesem Bericht veröffentlichte Ecofys auch einen Artikel zum Potential von Biokraftstoffen in der Schifffahrt in dem Magazin Biofuels International. Auch diesen Artikel können Sie hier herunterladen. Mehr über Biofuels International erfahren Sie auf: http://www.biofuels-news.com/.
This subproject aims to analyze the fragmentation of forest policy at both an international and national level for the selected countries, employing a discourse analysis approach. It is split into two sub-subprojects (SSPs). 'SSPa' conducts an analysis of discursive genealogies of forest policy in Germany, Sweden, and the US. 'SSPb' investigates the history of forest related discourses in three global environmental policy processes (UNFF, CBD, and UNFCCC). In doing so, both SSPs follow a three step procedure: In the first work package, relevant literature is reviewed and a theoretical and analytical framework is developed. In the second work package, empirical data (mostly formal and informal policy documents) are gathered and analyzed. In the third work package, emphasis is placed on the role of political 'elites' in the creation of fragmented forest policy discourses at different levels; in-depth interviews with policy stakeholders and experts add another perspective to the analysis in this work package. The project is expected to develop a new understanding not only of the fragmentation of multi-level and multi-sector forest policy discourses, but also of the way in which 'discourse elites' interact with and within these discourses. The results of the work packages will be published in peer reviewed journals and discussed with policy stakeholders and scientists in conferences and workshops.
In the last decades agricultural policy has gained increasingly in complexity. Nowadays it influences the food and agricultural sector from the global market down to the farm level. Widespread research questions, like the impact of the WTO negotiations on the farm structure, most often require comprehensive modeling frameworks. Thus, different types of models are utilized according to their comparative advantages and combined in a strategically useful way to more accurately represent micro and macro aspects of the food and agricultural sector. Consequently, in recent years we have seen an increase in the development and application of model linkages. Given this background, the overall objective of this subproject is a systematic sensitivity analysis of model linkages that gradually involves more and more characteristics of the linkage and the corresponding transfer of results between models. In addition, the project aims to answer the following specific question: How does structural change at the farm level influence aggregate supply and technical progress? Under which conditions is it possible to derive macro-relationships from micro-relationships? How does the aggregation level influence the model results and how can possible problems be overcome? This procedure is used to quantify the effects and to derive conditions for optimal interaction of the connected models. The analysis is based on the general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the farm group model FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System) which are employed in conjunction to analyze the effects of WTO negotiations on the farm level.
Organische Aerosole (OA) sind wichtige Bestandteile atmosphärischer Partikel. Je nach Region können sie zwischen 20 und 90% der gesamten Submikron-Partikelmasse betragen. Dennoch sind organische Aerosolquellen, atmosphärische Prozesse und Ableitung sehr ungewiss. Vorrangiges Ziel dieses Antrages ist es, die Auswirkungen organischer Aerosole auf Luftqualität und Klima zu untersuchen. Dazu soll die Darstellung des Aerosolaufbaus und die Weiterentwicklung in einem globalen Klima-Chemie-Modell verbessert werden. Das geplante Vorhaben basiert auf einem rechnerisch effizienten Modul zur Beschreibung der Zusammensetzung und Entwicklung atmosphärischer Aerosole in der Atmosphäre (ORACLE), ein Teil des ECHAM5/MESSy (EMAC) Klima-Chemie-Modells. ORACLE wird unter Berücksichtigung aller auf Labor- und Feldmessungen basierenden neuesten Erkenntnissen und Entwicklungen aktualisiert werden, um den zunehmend oxidierenden, weniger flüchtigen und stärker hygroskopischen Charakter des organischen Aerosols während der atmosphärischen Alterung mittels Nachverfolgung ihrer beiden wichtigsten Parameter, Sättigungskonzentration und Sauerstoffgehalt, genauer darzustellen. Dieses Modellsystem soll eingesetzt werden, um die Unsicherheit hinsichtlich der Einflüsse organischer Aerosole auf die globale Luftqualität und den Strahlungsantrieb zu verringern, und zwar durch: i) Quantifizierung des relativen Beitrags der Bildung sekundärer organischer Aerosole (SOA) sowie Emissionen primärer organischer Aerosole (POA) auf den Gesamthaushalt organischer Aerosole in unterschiedlichen Umgebungen; ii) Quantifizierung des Beitrags von Biomasseverbrennung und Schadstoffemissionen sowie chemische Alterung und weiträumige Übertragung auf den Gesamthaushalt organischer Aerosole; iii) Ermittlung, inwieweit SOA Konzentrationen durch biogene und anthropogene Emissionen sowie photochemische Alterungsprozesse beeinträchtigt werden; iv) Untersuchung der Weiterentwicklung von SOA-Bildung aus natürlichen Quellen durch deren Interaktion mit anthropogenen Emissionen; v) Abschätzung der Auswirkungen photochemischer Alterungsprozesse auf die physikalisch-chemischen Eigenschaften organischer Aerosole (z.B. Hygroskopizität, Volatilität) und vi) Einschätzung der indirekten Auswirkungen organischer Aerosole auf das Klima. Vor allem aber wird der vorliegende Antrag der kommenden Generation von Chemie-Klimamodellen eine realistische Beschreibung der chemischen Entwicklung organischer Aerosole in der Atmosphäre liefern, was für die Reduzierung der Aerosol-Unsicherheiten in der Luftqualität und bei Klimasimulationen von wesentlicher Bedeutung ist. Es ist auch davon auszugehen, dass das Forschungsvorhaben wertvolle Informationen zu den Quellen und der Produktion von OA weltweit liefert, was derzeitige CCMs nicht leisten können und welche von Politikern zur Entwicklung zukünftiger wirksamer Emissionsminderungsstrategien genutzt werden können.
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