Aktuelle wissenschaftliche Studien legen nahe, dass die aktuelle Erderwärmung durch Treibhausgasemissionen hervorgerufen wird, die vom Menschen verursacht sind. Um gegen diese Entwicklung geeignete Maßnahmen ergreifen zu können bzw. um zu überprüfen, ob solche Maßnahmen von Erfolg gekrönt sind, ist es notwendig, die Schadstoffkonzentrationen inklusive der zugehörigen Emissionsquellen genau zu kennen. Diese Informationen sind bisher jedoch sehr lückenhaft und beruhen auf sogenannten 'bottom-up' Berechnungen. Da diese Kalkulationen nicht auf direkten Messungen beruhen, weisen sie große Ungenauigkeiten auf und sind außerdem nicht in der Lage, bisher unbekannte Emissionsquellen zu identifizieren. In dem hier vorgestellten Projekt soll ein mesoskaliges Netzwerk für die Überwachung von Luftschadstoffen wie CO2, CH4, CO, NO2 und O3 aufgebaut werden, das auf dem neuartigen Konzept der differentiellen Säulenmessung beruht. Bei diesem Ansatz wird die Differenz zwischen den Luftsäulen luv- und leewärts einer Stadt gebildet. Diese Differenz ist proportional zu den emittierten Schadstoffen und somit eine Maßzahl für die Emissionen, welche in der Stadt generiert werden.Mithilfe dieser Methode wird es in Zukunft möglich sein, städtische Emissionen über lange Zeiträume hinweg zu überwachen. Damit können neue Informationen über die Generierung und Umverteilung von Luftschadstoffen gewonnen werden. Wir werden u.a. folgende zentrale Fragen beantworten: Wie verhält sich der tatsächliche Trend der CO2, CH4 und NO2 Emissionen in München über mehrere Jahre? Wo sind die Emissions-Hotspots? Wie akkurat sind die bisherigen 'bottom-up' Abschätzungen? Wie effektiv sind die Maßnahmen zur Emissionsreduzierung tatsächlich? Sind vor allem für Methan weitere Maßnahmen zur Reduzierung der Emissionen notwendig? Zu diesem Zweck werden wir ein vollautomatisiertes Messnetzwerk aufbauen und passende Methoden zur Modellierung entwickeln, welche u.a. auf STILT (Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport) und CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) basieren. Mithilfe der Modellierungsresultate werden wir eine Strategie entwerfen, wie städtische Netzwerke zur Überwachung von Luftschadstoffen aufgebaut werden müssen, um repräsentative Ergebnisse zu erhalten. Außerdem können mit den so gewonnenen städtischen Emissionszahlen z.B. dem Stadtreferat, den Stadtwerken München oder der Bayerischen Staatsregierung Möglichkeiten zur Beurteilung der Effektivität der angewandten Klimaschutzmaßnahmen an die Hand gegeben werden. Das hier vorgestellte Messnetzwerk dient somit als Prototyp, um die grundlegenden Fragen zum Aufbau eines solchen Sensornetzwerks zu klären, damit objektive Aussagen zu städtischen Emissionen möglich werden. Dieses Projekt ist weltweit einmalig und wird zukunftsweisende Ergebnisse liefern.
Dairy farming across Germany displays diverse production systems. Factor endowment, management, technology adoption as well as competitive dynamics in the local or regional land, agribusiness and dairy processing sectors contribute to this differentiation on farm level. These differences impact on the ability of dairy farms and regional dairy production systems to successfully respond to pressures arising from future market and policy changes. The overall objective of the research activities of which this project is a part of, is to develop a thorough understanding of the processes that govern the spatial dynamics of dairy farm development in different regions in Germany. The central hypothesis of this research project is that management system and technological choices differ systematically across local production and market conditions. The empirical approach will focus on the estimation of farm specific nonparametric cost functions for dairy farms located in across Germany differentiated by time and location. A spatially differentiated data base with information on input use, resource availability, as well as local market conditions for land and output markets will be compiled. The nonparametric approach is specifically suited to disclose a more accurate representation of dairy production system heterogeneity across locations and time compared to parametric concepts as it provides the necessary flexibility to accommodate non-linearities relevant for a wide domain of explanatory variables. The methodology employed goes beyond the state of the art of the literature as it combines kernel density estimation with a Bayesian sampling approach to provide theory consistent parameters for each farm in the data sample.The specific methodological hypothesis is that the nonparametric approach is superior to current parametric techniques and this hypothesis is tested using statistical model evaluation. Regarding the farm management and technological choices, we hypothesize that land suitability for feed production determines the farm intensity of dairy production and thus management and technological choices. With respect to the ability of farms to successfully respond to market pressures we hypothesize that farms at the upper and lower tail of the intensity distribution both can generate positive returns from dairy production. These last two hypotheses will be tested using the estimated spatially differentiated farm specific costs and marginal costs.The expected outcomes are of relevance for the agricultural sector and the food supply chain economy as a whole as fundamental market structure changes in the dairy sector are ongoing due to the abolition of the quota regulation in the years 2014/2015. Thus, exact knowledge about differences and development of dairy cost heterogeneity of farms within and between regions are an important factor for the actors involved in the market as well as the political support of this process.
Research question: Agri-environment schemes play an increasingly important role in European CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) to support biodiversity and environment in agricultural landscapes. They have been implemented since 1992 and now cost a yearly 1.7 billion Euro. Still, there is no conclusive evidence that these schemes actually do contribute to the conservation of particularly biodiversity. The primary objective of this project is to evaluate the (cost-) effectiveness of European agri-environment schemes in protecting biodiversity and to determine the primary processes that determine their effectiveness. This project furthermore aims to determine how CAP may be introduced in candidate EU-members without unacceptable loss of biodiversity. It will provide simple guidelines how researchers, governmental authorities may efficiently evaluate agri-environmental measures. Aim: Agri-environment schemes have been used to protect biodiversity and environment in agricultural areas since 1992. Their effectiveness has never been reliably evaluated. This project aims to evaluate the (cost-)effectiveness of agri-environment schemes with respect to biodiversity conservation in five European countries. It will determine the proper scales that have to be addressed for conservation efforts for a range of species groups. It will determine the most important environmental factors that influence the effectiveness of the schemes. Based on this, recommendations will be made how the effectiveness of schemes may be improved and simple guidelines will be produced how ecological effects of agri-environment schemes can be evaluated efficiently by governmental authorities or other institutions. The ecological effects of the introduction of CAP in a candidate EU-member will be investigated to reduce negative side effects of anticipated land-use changes Scientific methods: We will examine the effectiveness of agri-environment schemes by surveying pairs of fields: a field with an agri-environment scheme and a nearby field that is conventionally managed. In five countries, in each country in three areas, and in each area on seven pairs of fields the species richness of birds, plants and three insect groups (pollinators, herbivores, predators) will be determined. Effects of schemes on pollination efficiency and pest control will be examined using indicator communities. Correlative studies will examine the effects of landscape structure, land-use intensity and species pool on the effectiveness of agri-environmental measures. The spatial scale that is relevant to nature conservation efforts will be investigated via the spatial distribution of species groups. The results will be used to formulate recommendations how to improve the effectiveness of agri-environment schemes and to construct a set of simple guidelines how schemes can be evaluated efficiently yet reliably.
In June 2010, the DLR Group of Systems Analysis started an investigation about innovative financing of Concentrating Solar Power Plants (CSP) in countries of the Middle East and North Africa. We found a possible strategy for the market introduction of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that will not require considerable subsidization and will not constitute a significant burden for electricity consumers in the region. In the first section, the paper explains the need of MENA countries for sustainable supply of electricity and calculates the cost of electricity for a model case country. In the second part, the cost development of concentrating solar power plants is calculated on the basis of expectations for the expansion of CSP on a global level. After that, the challenges for the market introduction of CSP in MENA are explained. Finally, we present a strategy for the market introduction of CSP in MENA, removing the main barriers for financing and starting market introduction in the peak load and the medium load segment of power supply. The paper explains why long-term power purchase agreements (PPA) for CSP should be calculated on the basis of avoided costs, starting in the peak load segment. Such PPA are not yet available, the paper aims to convince policy makers to introduce them. The attached power point file shows some examples of time series of load and supply by CSP in the different load segments and shows the graphs used in the report. The attached Excel Sheet gives the time series of load and supply by CSP for the different load segments for a total reference year.
Biokraftstoffe können eine Möglichkeit sein, die Kohlenstoffintensität des Schiffsverkehrs zu verringern und zugleich die Auswirkungen der durch Schifffahrt verursachten Emissionen zu mildern. Im Auftrag der Europäischen Agentur für die Sicherheit des Seeverkehrs hat Ecofys untersucht, inwieweit Biokraftstoffe fossile Kraftstoffe in der Schifffahrt ersetzen können. Die technischen, wirtschaftlichen, organisatorischen und die Nachhaltigkeitsaspekte einer Einführung von Biokraftstoffen wurden durch theoretische Forschung einerseits und Interviews mit Marktakteuren andererseits untersucht. Die Studie belegt, dass Biokraftstoffe in der Lage wären, die Schifffahrtsindustrie kohlenstoffneutral zu halten und luft- und wasserschädliche Emissionen zu verhindern. Die größten Hindernisse für die Nutzung von Biokraftstoffen im Schiffsverkehr liegen dabei entgegen ursprünglicher Annahmen nicht im technischen Bereich, sondern vielmehr in politischen und organisatorischen Fragestellungen. Basierend auf diesem Bericht veröffentlichte Ecofys auch einen Artikel zum Potential von Biokraftstoffen in der Schifffahrt in dem Magazin Biofuels International. Auch diesen Artikel können Sie hier herunterladen. Mehr über Biofuels International erfahren Sie auf: http://www.biofuels-news.com/.
Deviant behaviour on various levels of the food supply chain may cause food risks. It entails irregular technological procedures which cause (increased probabilities of) adverse outcomes for buyers and consumers. Besides technological hazards and hitherto unknown health threats, moral hazard and malpractice in food businesses represent an additional source of risk which can be termed 'behavioural food risk'. From a regulatory perspective, adverse outcomes associated with deviance represent negative externalities that are caused by the breaking of rules designed to prevent them. From a rational choice perspective, the probability of malpractice increases with the benefits for its authors. It decreases with the probability of detection and resulting losses. It also decreases with bonds to social norms that protect producers from yielding to economic temptations. The design of mechanisms that reduce behavioural risks and prevent malpractice requires an understanding of why food businesses obey or do not obey the rules. This project aims to contribute to a better understanding of malpractice on the restaurant/retail level through comparative case studies and statistical analyses of food inspection and survey data. Accounting for the complexity of economic behaviour, we will not only look at economic incentives but consider all relevant behavioural determinants, including social context factors.
This subproject aims to analyze the fragmentation of forest policy at both an international and national level for the selected countries, employing a discourse analysis approach. It is split into two sub-subprojects (SSPs). 'SSPa' conducts an analysis of discursive genealogies of forest policy in Germany, Sweden, and the US. 'SSPb' investigates the history of forest related discourses in three global environmental policy processes (UNFF, CBD, and UNFCCC). In doing so, both SSPs follow a three step procedure: In the first work package, relevant literature is reviewed and a theoretical and analytical framework is developed. In the second work package, empirical data (mostly formal and informal policy documents) are gathered and analyzed. In the third work package, emphasis is placed on the role of political 'elites' in the creation of fragmented forest policy discourses at different levels; in-depth interviews with policy stakeholders and experts add another perspective to the analysis in this work package. The project is expected to develop a new understanding not only of the fragmentation of multi-level and multi-sector forest policy discourses, but also of the way in which 'discourse elites' interact with and within these discourses. The results of the work packages will be published in peer reviewed journals and discussed with policy stakeholders and scientists in conferences and workshops.
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