In diesem Projekt werden - vor allem mit Diplomarbeiten - oekonomische Aspekte der Wasserwirtschaft betrachtet. Dabei geht es um geeignete Preissetzungsverfahren ebenso wie um Kosten-Nutzen-Analysen zu speziellen Investitionen in diesem Bereich.
The German dairy value chain is subject to profound structural change resulting in increasingly dominant agents at all stages of the chain, i.e. at the farm level, at the processors' level and at the retailers' level. In particular, the consolidation of retailers has increased retailers' bargaining power vis-à-vis their suppliers. Against this background, the overall objective of this subproject is to analyze the structural change in the dairy sector, particularly at the processors' level, by taking into account firms' strategic interactions along the entire dairy value chain. So far, there exists no theoretical workhorse model that allows for the analysis of interdependencies in a three-layer structure where imperfect competition is considered at all three stages. We aim to close this gap to understand how an increasingly dominant retail industry influences strategic decisions at the dairy processors' level which, in turn, may affect dairy farmers. Building upon a three-layer approach, we first examine whether processors have merger incentives to counter the retailers' bargaining power. We then analyze the differences between cooperatives and for-profit firms concerning their decision on product quality and the number of dairy suppliers. Finally, we assess the implications for upstream farmers which rounds off the picture of structural change in the German dairy sector.
Farm structures are often characterized by regional heterogeneity, agglomeration effects, sub-optimal farm sizes and income disparities. The main objective of this study is to analyze whether this is a result of path dependent structural change, what the determinants of path dependence are, and how it may be overcome. The focus is on the German dairy sector which has been highly regulated and subsidized in the past and faces severe structural deficits. The future of this sector in the process of an ongoing liberalization will be analyzed by applying theoretical concepts of path dependence and path breaking. In these regards, key issues are the actual situation, technological and market trends as well as agricultural policies. The methodology will be based on a participative use of the agent-based model AgriPoliS and participatory laboratory experiments. On the one hand, AgriPoliS will be tested as a tool for stakeholder oriented analysis of mechanisms, trends and policy effects. This part aims to analyze whether and how path dependence of structural change can be overcome on a sector level. In a second part, AgriPoliS will be extended such that human players (farmers, students) can take over the role of agents in the model. This part aims to compare human agents with computer agents in order to overcome single farm path dependence.
The agricultural sector has experienced substantial structural changes in the past and faces continuing adjustments in the future. The implications of structural change are not only relevant for the sector itself but have broader social, economic and environmental consequences for a region. An understanding of this process is required in order to assess how (agricultural-) policy affects or, if a specific social outcome is desired, can influence this development. A common approach to gain understanding of the process is to model structural change as a Markov process. One problem in the analysis of structural change in the EU is that farm level (micro) data is rarely available such that inference about behaviour of individual farms has to be derived from aggregated (macro) data. Recently, the generalized cross entropy estimator gained popularity in this context since it allows considering prior information such that the often underdetermined 'macro data' Markov models can be estimated. However, the way prior information is considered is also the greatest drawback of the approach. Therefore, the project aims to develop a Bayesian framework as an alternative estimator that allows to consider prior information in a more efficient and transparent way. The project will further provide an evaluation of the statistical properties of the estimator as well as an exemplifying application analyzing the effects of single farm payments on agricultural structural change in the EU.