Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
It is well established that reduced supply of fresh organic matter, interactions of organic matter with mineral phases and spatial inaccessibility affect C stocks in subsoils. However, quantitative information required for a better understanding of the contribution of each of the different processes to C sequestration in subsoils and for improvements of subsoil C models is scarce. The same is true for the main controlling factors of the decomposition rates of soil organic matter in subsoils. Moreover, information on spatial variabilities of different properties in the subsoil is rare. The few studies available which couple near and middle infrared spectroscopy (NIRS/MIRS) with geostatistical approaches indicate a potential for the creation of spatial maps which may show hot spots with increased biological activities in the soil profile and their effects on the distribution of C contents. Objectives are (i) to determine the mean residence time of subsoil C in different fractions by applying fractionation procedures in combination with 14C measurements; (ii) to study the effects of water content, input of 13C-labelled roots and dissolved organic matter and spatial inaccessibility on C turnover in an automatic microcosm system; (iii) to determine general soil properties and soil biological and chemical characteristics using NIRS and MIRS, and (iv) to extrapolate the measured and estimated soil properties to the vertical profiles by using different spatial interpolation techniques. For the NIRS/MIRS applications, sample pretreatment (air-dried vs. freeze-dried samples) and calibration procedures (a modified partial least square (MPLS) approach vs. a genetic algorithm coupled with MPLS or PLS) will be optimized. We hypothesize that the combined application of chemical fractionation in combination with 14C measurements and the results of the incubation experiments will give the pool sizes of passive, intermediate, labile and very labile C and N and the mean residence times of labile and very labile C and N. These results will make it possible to initialize the new quantitative model to be developed by subproject PC. Additionally, we hypothesize that the sample pretreatment 'freeze-drying' will be more useful for the estimation of soil biological characteristics than air-drying. The GA-MPLS and GA-PLS approaches are expected to give better estimates of the soil characteristics than the MPLS and PLS approaches. The spatial maps for the different subsoil characteristics in combination with the spatial maps of temperature and water contents will presumably enable us to explain the spatial heterogeneity of C contents.
Die Veränderung des globalen Wasserkreislaufs durch den Klimawandel ist eine der größten Herausforderungen für die Gesellschaft, da trockene Regionen trockener und feuchte Regionen feuchter werden. Das Problem besteht darin, dass 85 % der Verdunstung und 77 % der Niederschläge über den Ozeanen stattfinden und der globale Wasserkreislauf aufgrund der schwierigen Beobachtungsbedingungen über den Ozeanen nur unzureichend verstanden wird. Der Austausch von Süßwasser zwischen dem Ozean und der Atmosphäre findet jedoch in einer obersten dünnen Schicht der Meeresoberfläche statt, den so genannten Oberflächenfilm. Die Verdunstung von Wasserdampf aus den Oberflächenfilmen erhöht deren Salzgehalt, während der Niederschlag den Salzgehalt in den Oberflächenfilmen verringert. Das Hauptziel dieses Forschungsprojekts ist ein umfassendes Verständnis der Dynamik und der Veränderungen des Salzgehalts und der damit zusammenhängenden thermischen Felder in den ozeanischen Oberflächenfilmen und der oberflächennahen Schicht (NSL) sowie deren Zusammenhang mit den verdunstenden Süßwasserflüssen zu erzielen. Einer der Hauptpunkte dieser Arbeit ist, dass Süsswasserflüsse (Verdunstung minus Niederschlag) direkt auf die Meeresoberfläche einwirkt und daher vorwiegend den Salzgehalt der Oberflächenfilme quasi-instant beeinflusst, während die derzeitigen Methoden, die den Salzgehalt der gemischten Schicht verwenden, sich auf dekadischen Skalen beziehen. Eine umfassende Reihe von Experimenten wird in einer großmaßstäblichen Mesokosmenanlage an der Universität Oldenburg durchgeführt, in der die treibenden Kräfte für die Verdunstung kontrolliert werden können (Wassertemperatur, Windgeschwindigkeit, turbulente Vermischung, Lufttemperatur und -feuchtigkeit). Im Mittelpunkt steht eine Expedition in den Mittelatlantik mit seinem hohen Oberflächensalzgehalt, d. h. Verdunstungsraten übersteigen die Niederschlagsraten. Während der Expedition kommt ein funkgesteuertes Katamaran zum Einsatz, der in der Lage ist, Oberflächenfilme zu sammeln. Die Beobachtungen werden durch Messungen von Bojen, schiffsbasierten Messungen und Satelliten unterstützt. Die Arbeiten ergänzen die laufenden Aktivitäten zur Untersuchung des Zusammenhangs zwischen dem Salzgehalt der Oberflächenfilme und den Niederschlägen. Diese Arbeit ist ein erster Schritt, um zu verstehen, wie der Salzgehalt der Oberflächenfilme und der oberflächennahe Salzgehalt verwendet werden können, um dynamische Süsswasserflüsse zu integrieren und Parametrisierungen zur Extrapolation von Süsswasserflüssen unter Verwendung von satellitengestützten Salzgehaltsdaten zu entwickeln.
Das Südchinesische Meer ist das größte Randmeer der Erde und ausschließlich von stark besiedelten Ländern wie China, Indonesien, Philippinen oder Vietnam umgeben. Klimaänderung und menschliche Einflüsse im Einzugsgebiet des Mekong (18 geplante Stauseen zu Stromgewinnung und Intensivierung der Aquakultur) werden die Flusseinträge drastisch verändern und in der Folge die Biogeochemie der Küstengewässer. Die Geschwindigkeit und Größenordnung dieser Veränderungen lassen es wahrscheinlich erscheinen, dass das hier geplante Feldprogramm eine der wenigen Gelegenheiten sein wird, dieses Meeresgebiet zu erfassen, bevor es sich grundlegend verändert hat. Die gegenwärtige Rolle der Nährstoffeinträge des Mekong für die Produktivität des Südchinesischen Meeres soll im Vergleich zu den Nährstoffeinträgen durch den Auftrieb während des SW Monsuns untersucht werden. Ergebnisse früherer Arbeiten von uns lassen vermuten, dass die Stickstofffixierung von Cyanobakterien, die in Symbiose mit Diatomeen vorkommen, eine zentrale Rolle spielt. Zudem gibt es einzellige und koloniebildende N-Fixierer wie Trichodesmium in der Flussfahne. Die Interaktion von stickstofffixierenden Organismen, die von den Einträgen des Mekong abzuhängen scheinen, ist bislang nicht verstanden und steht im Fokus dieses Projektes. Die Nährstoffzusammensetzung in Wasser und die Aufnahme von markierten Kohlenstoff und Stickstoffverbindungen wird in der Flussfahne und im Auftriebsgebiet quantifiziert. Zudem wird auf Zellebene der Austausch von Stickstoff und Kohlenstoff zwischen Diatomeen und ihren stickstofffixierenden Symbionten mittels NanoSIMS analysiert. Zeitgleich wird die Gemeinschaft der Stickstofffixierer entlang der Flussfahne und im offenen südchinesischen Meer von amerikanischen und vietnamesischen Kollegen durch genomische, molekularbiologische und taxonomische Methoden erfasst. In der Synthesephase des Projektes soll durch die Zusammenführung aller Ergebnisse ein tiefgreifendes Verständnis des menschlichen Einflusses auf die Biogeochemie des Küstenmeeres vor Vietnam erreicht werden. Zwei Expeditionen in das Gebiet des Mekongausstroms sind bereits durch einen genehmigten Antrag des Schmidts Oceanographic Institute aus den USA abgesichert, so dass Probennahmen und Experimente an Board geplant werden können. Aufgrund des früheren, sehr erfolgreichen DFG finanzierten Vorhabens bestehen enge Kontakte zum Institute of Oceanography in Nha Trang, Vietnam, auf die hier aufgebaut wird.
Nutrient and water supply for organisms in soil is strongly affected by the physical and physico-chemical properties of the microenvironment, i.e. pore space topology (pore size, tortuosity, connectivity) and pore surface properties (surface charge, surface energy). Spatial decoupling of biological processes through the physical (spatial) separation of SOM, microorganisms and extracellular enzyme activity is apparently one of the most important factors leading to the protection and stabilization of soil organic matter (SOM) in subsoils. However, it is largely unknown, if physical constraints can explain the very low turnover rates of organic carbon in subsoils. Hence, the objective of P4 is to combine the information from the physical structure of the soil (local bulk density, macropore structure, aggregation, texture gradients) with surface properties of particles or aggregate surfaces to obtain a comprehensive set of physical important parameters. It is the goal to determine how relevant these physical factors in the subsoil are to enforce the hydraulic heterogeneity of the subsoil flow system during wetting and drying. Our hypothesis is that increasing water repellency enforces the moisture pattern heterogeneity caused already by geometrical factors. Pore space heterogeneity will be assessed by the bulk density patterns via x-ray radiography. Local pattern of soil moisture is evaluated by the difference of X-ray signals of dry and wet soil (project partner H.J. Vogel, UFZ Halle). With the innovative combination of three methods (high resolution X-ray radiography, small scale contact angle mapping, both applied to a flow cell shaped sample with undisturbed soil) it will be determined if the impact of water repellency leads to an increase in the hydraulic flow field heterogeneity of the unsaturated sample, i.e. during infiltration events and the following redistribution phase. An interdisciplinary cooperation within the research program is the important link which is realized by using the same flow cell samples to match the spatial patterns of physical, chemical, and biological factors in undisturbed subsoil. This cooperation with respect to spatial pattern analysis will include the analysis of enzyme activities within and outside of flow paths and the spatial distribution of key soil properties (texture, organic carbon, iron oxide content) evaluated by IR mapping. To study dissolved organic matter (DOM) sorption in soils of varying mineral composition and the selective association of DOM with mineral surfaces in context with recognized flow field pattern, we will conduct a central DOM leaching experiment and the coating of iron oxides which are placed inside the flow cell during percolation with marked DOM solution. Overall objective is to elucidate if spatial separation of degrading organisms and enzymes from the substrates may be interconnected with defined physical features of the soil matrix thus explaining subsoil SOM stability and -dynami
Perennial fodder cropping potentially increases subsoil biopore density by formation of extensive root systems and temporary soil rest. We will quantify root length density, earthworm abundance and biopore size classes after Medicago sativa, Cichorium intybus and Festuca arundinacea grown for 1, 2 and 3 years respectively in the applied research unit's Central Field Trial (CeFiT) which is established and maintained by our working group. Shoot parameters including transpiration, gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence will frequently be recorded. Precrop effects on oilseed rape and cereals will be quantified with regard to crop yield, nutrient transfer and H2-release. The soil associated with biopores (i.e. the driloshpere) is generally rich in nutrients as compared to the bulk soil and is therefore supposed to be a potential hot spot for nutrient acquisition. However, contact areas between roots and the pore wall have been reported to be low. It is still unclear to which extent the nutrients present in the drilosphere are used and which potential relevance subsoil biopores may have for the nutrient supply of crops. We will use a flexible videoscope to determine the root-soil contact in biopores. Nitrogen input into the drilosphere by earthworms and potential re-uptake of nitrogen from the drilosphere by subsequent crops with different rooting systems (oilseed rape vs. cereals) will be quantified using 15N as a tracer.
Der Ozean im Westpazifik ist mit Temperaturen von ganzjährig 30°C der wärmste Ozean der Welt. Im tropischen Westpazifik ist die Lufttemperatur der Grenzschicht weltweit am höchsten und die Ozonkonzentration am niedrigsten. Aufgrund der allgemeinen Advektion der Luftmassen in der unteren und mittleren Troposphäre aus dem Osten durch die Walker-Zirkulation über den Pazifik befindet sich die Luft über dem tropischen Westpazifik für längere Zeit in einer sauberen, warmen und feuchten Umgebung. Der Abbau von reaktiven Sauerstoff- und Ozonvorläufern wie NOx findet daher länger als anderswo in den Tropen, was zu sehr niedrigen Ozonkonzentrationen führte. Dies erhöht die Lebensdauer von kurzlebigen biogenen und anthropogenen Spurengasen. Darüber hinaus begünstigen hohe Meeresoberflächentemperaturen eine starke Konvektion im tropischen Westpazifik, was zu niedrigen Ozonmischungsverhältnissen in den konvektiven Ausflussgebieten in der oberen Troposphäre führen kann. Der Warmpool im Westpazifik ist auch eine wichtige Quellregion für stratosphärische Luft. Daher fallen die Region, in der die Lebensdauer kurzlebiger Spurengase erhöht ist, und die Quellregion der stratosphärischen Luft zusammen. Somit bestimmt die Zusammensetzung der troposphärischen Atmosphäre in dieser Region in hohem Maße auch die globale stratosphärische Zusammensetzung.Ozon ist aufgrund von Rückkopplungsprozessen zwischen Temperatur, Dynamik und Ozon ein wichtiges Spurengas in der Klimaforschung. Da der Warmpool im Westpazifik die Hauptquellenregion für stratosphärische Luft ist, ist die Kenntnis von Ozon und anderen kurzlebigen Spurengasen auch wichtig, um den Transport von Spurengasen in die Stratosphäre zu verstehen.Ziel unseres Projektes ist die Messung des Tagesgangs von Ozon und anderen Spurengasen mit Hilfe der hochauflösenden solaren Absorptions-FTIR-Spektroskopie. Die Messungen liefern die Gesamtsäulendichten von bis zu 20 Spurengasen. Für einige Spurengase erlaubt die Analyse der Spektrallinienform die Ableitung der Konzentrationsprofile in bis zu etwa vier atmosphärischen Höhenschichten. Ergänzt werden die Beobachtungen durch Ozonballonsondierungen, kontinuierliche Messungen der UV-Strahlung, und Modellrechnungen mit einem Chemie-Transport-Modell. Die Messungen sind für den Zeitraum August bis Oktober 2022 geplant, die Auswertung und Interpretation von November 2022 bis Januar 2023.
Outbreaks of foodborne illness linked to consumptions of fresh, or partially processed, agricultural products are a growing concern in industrialized and developing countries. The incidence of human pathogens on fresh fruits and vegetables is often related to the use of recycled wastewaster in surface irrigation as well as high amounts of animal manure in agricultural management practice. Thereby the soil inhabiting fauna plays an important role in the transport and dissemination of microorganisms. The focus of the proposed project is on nematodes, well known vectors for bacteria and viruses in soil. The major goals are to: (1) survey human pathogens in soil and on/in free-living and plant parasitic nematodes in agriculture field sites irrigated with recycled wastewater or fertilized with fresh animal manure in Israel and the Palestinian Authority, (2) assess the function of nematodes as vectors in transmitting bacteria from microbial hot spots to plants, and (3) localize bacteria on and/or within the nematode and identify bacterial factors required for survival in the nematode host. Understanding the mechanisms involved in dissemination of human pathogens by nematodes will enhance the ability to develop practical means to minimize contamination of fresh produce and increase safety in food production.
The German dairy value chain is subject to profound structural change resulting in increasingly dominant agents at all stages of the chain, i.e. at the farm level, at the processors' level and at the retailers' level. In particular, the consolidation of retailers has increased retailers' bargaining power vis-à-vis their suppliers. Against this background, the overall objective of this subproject is to analyze the structural change in the dairy sector, particularly at the processors' level, by taking into account firms' strategic interactions along the entire dairy value chain. So far, there exists no theoretical workhorse model that allows for the analysis of interdependencies in a three-layer structure where imperfect competition is considered at all three stages. We aim to close this gap to understand how an increasingly dominant retail industry influences strategic decisions at the dairy processors' level which, in turn, may affect dairy farmers. Building upon a three-layer approach, we first examine whether processors have merger incentives to counter the retailers' bargaining power. We then analyze the differences between cooperatives and for-profit firms concerning their decision on product quality and the number of dairy suppliers. Finally, we assess the implications for upstream farmers which rounds off the picture of structural change in the German dairy sector.
Rain-cracking limits the production of many soft and fleshy fruit including sweet cherries world wide. Cracking is thought to result from increased water uptake through surface and pedicel. Water uptake increases fruit volume, and hence, turgor of cells (Pcell) and the pressure inside the fruit (Pfruit) and subjects the skin to tangential stress and hence, strain. When the strain exceeds the limits of extensibility the fruit cracks. This hypothesis is referred to as the Pfruit driven strain cracking. Based on this hypothesis cracking is related to two independent groups of factors: (1) water transport characteristics and (2) the intrinsic cracking susceptibility of the fruit defined as the amount of cracking per unit water uptake. The intrinsic cracking susceptibility thus reflects the mechanical constitution of the fruit. Most studies focussed on water transport through the fruit surface (factors 1), but only little information is available on the mechanical constitution (i.e., Pfruit and Pcell, tensile properties such as fracture strain, fracture pressure and modulus of elasticity of the exocarp; factors 2). The few published estimates of Pfruit in sweet cherry are all obtained indirectly (calculated from fruit water potential and osmotic potentials of juice extracts) and unrealistically high. They exceed those measured by pressure probe techniques in mature grape berry by several orders of magnitude. The objective of the proposed project is to test the hypothesis of the Pfruit driven strain cracking. Initially we will focus on establishing systems of widely differing intrinsic cracking susceptibility by varying species (sweet and sour cherry, Ribes and Vaccinium berries, plum, tomato), genotype (within sweet cherry), stage of development and temperature. These systems will then be used for testing the hypothesis of Pfruit driven strain cracking. We will quantify Pfruit und Pcell by pressure probe techniques and compression tests and the mechanical properties of the exocarp using biaxial tensile tests. When the presence of high Pfruit and Pcell is confirmed by direct measurements, subsequent studies will focus on the mode of failure of the exocarp (fracture along vs. across cell walls) and the relationship between failure thresholds and morphometric characteristics of the exocarp. However, when Pfruit und Pcell are low, the hypothesis of Pfruit driven strain cracking must be rejected and the mechanistic basis for low pressures (presence of apoplastic solutes) clarified on a temporal (in the course of development) and a spatial scale (exocarp vs. mesocarp). We focus on sweet cherry, because detailed information on this species and experience in extending the short harvest period is available. Where appropriate, other cracking susceptible species (sour cherry, plum, Vaccinium, Ribes, tomato) will be included to further extend the experimental period and to maximize the range in intrinsic cracking susceptibility.
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