Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
Background: An increasing frequency of massive flooding along the lower Yangtse River in China ended in a disastrous catastrophe in summer 1998 leaving several thousand people homeless, more than 3.600 dead and causing enormous economic damage. Inappropriate land-use techniques and large scale timber felling in the water catchment of the upper Yangtse and its feeder streams were stated to be the main causes. Immediate timber cutting bans were imposed and investigations on land use patterns were initiated by the Chinese Government. The Institute for World Forestry of the Federal Research Centre for Forestry and Forest Products was approached by the Yunnan Academy of Forestry in Kunming to exchange experiences and to cooperate scientifically in the design and application of appropriate afforestation and silvicultural management techniques in the water catchment area of the Yangtse. This cooperation was initiated in 1999 and is based on formal agreements in the fields of agrarian research between the German and Chinese Governments. Objectives: The cooperation was in the first step focussing on the identification of factors which caused the enormous floodings. After their identification measures of prevention were determined and put into practice. In this context experiences made in past centuries in the alpine region of central Europe served as an incentive and example for similar environmental problems and solutions under comparable conditions. Relevant key questions of the cooperation project were: - Analysis of forest related factors influencing the recent floodings of the Yangtse, - Analysis and evaluation of silvicultural management experiences from central Europe for know-how transfer, - Evaluation of rehabilitation measures for successful application in Yunnan, - Dissemination of knowledge through vocational training. Results: - Frequent wild grazing of husbandry is a key factor for forest degeneration beyond unsustainable timber harvests, forest fires and insect calamities leading to increased water run-off in the mountainous region of Yunnan; - Browsing of cattle interrupts succession thus avoiding natural regeneration and leaving a logging ban ineffective; - Mountain pasture in the Alps had similar effects in the past in central Europe. The introduction of controlled grazing has led to an ecologically compatible coexistence of pasture and ecology. Close-to-nature forestry can have positive effects in this sensitive environment. - Afforestation with site adopted broadleaves and coniferous tree species was implemented on demonstration level using advanced techniques in Yunnan.
Perennial fodder cropping potentially increases subsoil biopore density by formation of extensive root systems and temporary soil rest. We will quantify root length density, earthworm abundance and biopore size classes after Medicago sativa, Cichorium intybus and Festuca arundinacea grown for 1, 2 and 3 years respectively in the applied research unit's Central Field Trial (CeFiT) which is established and maintained by our working group. Shoot parameters including transpiration, gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence will frequently be recorded. Precrop effects on oilseed rape and cereals will be quantified with regard to crop yield, nutrient transfer and H2-release. The soil associated with biopores (i.e. the driloshpere) is generally rich in nutrients as compared to the bulk soil and is therefore supposed to be a potential hot spot for nutrient acquisition. However, contact areas between roots and the pore wall have been reported to be low. It is still unclear to which extent the nutrients present in the drilosphere are used and which potential relevance subsoil biopores may have for the nutrient supply of crops. We will use a flexible videoscope to determine the root-soil contact in biopores. Nitrogen input into the drilosphere by earthworms and potential re-uptake of nitrogen from the drilosphere by subsequent crops with different rooting systems (oilseed rape vs. cereals) will be quantified using 15N as a tracer.
Der Ozean im Westpazifik ist mit Temperaturen von ganzjährig 30°C der wärmste Ozean der Welt. Im tropischen Westpazifik ist die Lufttemperatur der Grenzschicht weltweit am höchsten und die Ozonkonzentration am niedrigsten. Aufgrund der allgemeinen Advektion der Luftmassen in der unteren und mittleren Troposphäre aus dem Osten durch die Walker-Zirkulation über den Pazifik befindet sich die Luft über dem tropischen Westpazifik für längere Zeit in einer sauberen, warmen und feuchten Umgebung. Der Abbau von reaktiven Sauerstoff- und Ozonvorläufern wie NOx findet daher länger als anderswo in den Tropen, was zu sehr niedrigen Ozonkonzentrationen führte. Dies erhöht die Lebensdauer von kurzlebigen biogenen und anthropogenen Spurengasen. Darüber hinaus begünstigen hohe Meeresoberflächentemperaturen eine starke Konvektion im tropischen Westpazifik, was zu niedrigen Ozonmischungsverhältnissen in den konvektiven Ausflussgebieten in der oberen Troposphäre führen kann. Der Warmpool im Westpazifik ist auch eine wichtige Quellregion für stratosphärische Luft. Daher fallen die Region, in der die Lebensdauer kurzlebiger Spurengase erhöht ist, und die Quellregion der stratosphärischen Luft zusammen. Somit bestimmt die Zusammensetzung der troposphärischen Atmosphäre in dieser Region in hohem Maße auch die globale stratosphärische Zusammensetzung.Ozon ist aufgrund von Rückkopplungsprozessen zwischen Temperatur, Dynamik und Ozon ein wichtiges Spurengas in der Klimaforschung. Da der Warmpool im Westpazifik die Hauptquellenregion für stratosphärische Luft ist, ist die Kenntnis von Ozon und anderen kurzlebigen Spurengasen auch wichtig, um den Transport von Spurengasen in die Stratosphäre zu verstehen.Ziel unseres Projektes ist die Messung des Tagesgangs von Ozon und anderen Spurengasen mit Hilfe der hochauflösenden solaren Absorptions-FTIR-Spektroskopie. Die Messungen liefern die Gesamtsäulendichten von bis zu 20 Spurengasen. Für einige Spurengase erlaubt die Analyse der Spektrallinienform die Ableitung der Konzentrationsprofile in bis zu etwa vier atmosphärischen Höhenschichten. Ergänzt werden die Beobachtungen durch Ozonballonsondierungen, kontinuierliche Messungen der UV-Strahlung, und Modellrechnungen mit einem Chemie-Transport-Modell. Die Messungen sind für den Zeitraum August bis Oktober 2022 geplant, die Auswertung und Interpretation von November 2022 bis Januar 2023.
In the last decades agricultural policy has gained increasingly in complexity. Nowadays it influences the food and agricultural sector from the global market down to the farm level. Widespread research questions, like the impact of the WTO negotiations on the farm structure, most often require comprehensive modeling frameworks. Thus, different types of models are utilized according to their comparative advantages and combined in a strategically useful way to more accurately represent micro and macro aspects of the food and agricultural sector. Consequently, in recent years we have seen an increase in the development and application of model linkages. Given this background, the overall objective of this subproject is a systematic sensitivity analysis of model linkages that gradually involves more and more characteristics of the linkage and the corresponding transfer of results between models. In addition, the project aims to answer the following specific question: How does structural change at the farm level influence aggregate supply and technical progress? Under which conditions is it possible to derive macro-relationships from micro-relationships? How does the aggregation level influence the model results and how can possible problems be overcome? This procedure is used to quantify the effects and to derive conditions for optimal interaction of the connected models. The analysis is based on the general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the farm group model FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System) which are employed in conjunction to analyze the effects of WTO negotiations on the farm level.
bifa wurde vom Bayerischen Staatsministerium für Umwelt und Gesundheit mit der Durchführung des Projekts IPP als Instrument des betrieblichen Klimaschutzes - eine Anleitung insbesondere für kleine und mittlere Unternehmen (KMU) beauftragt. Im Rahmen dieses Projekts werden u. a. acht Workshops mit Vertretern der Wirtschaft durchgeführt. Der erste Workshop fand bereits im Februar 2010 unter dem Motto Grüne Logistik: Visionen - Chancen - Risiken statt. Es nahmen 13 Unternehmer aus verschiedenen Bereichen der Logistik teil. Nach kurzen Impulsvorträgen zur Integrierten Produktpolitik und Grünen Logistik wurden in drei Arbeitsgruppen Möglichkeiten der Umsetzung von grüner Logistik im eigenen Unternehmen diskutiert und Ansatzpunkte gesucht, wie durch verstärkte Kooperation und Kommunikation die umweltbezogenen Vorteile der grünen gegenüber der normalen Logistik noch weiter ausgeschöpft werden können. Das äußerst heterogene Teilnehmerfeld wurde sehr positiv bewertet. So beschreibt ein Teilnehmer: Da waren ein Unternehmer mit eigenem Fuhrpark, ein kleiner mittelständischer Spediteur, ein großer mittelständischer Spediteur und ich aus der verladenden Wirtschaft. In der abschließenden Diskussion tauchte neben zahlreichen Ansatzpunkten zur Umsetzung immer wieder eine Frage auf: Was ist Green Logistics ? Wie können wir sie messen, was umfasst sie, wer nimmt daran teil und wer bezahlt sie? . Zur Abgrenzung der grünen gegenüber der normalen Logistik müssen Standards geschaffen werden, die den Unternehmen helfen, sich noch intensiver mit Möglichkeiten der Umweltentlastung im Bereich der Logistik auseinanderzusetzen. In einem weiterführenden Workshop im April 2010 setzten sich die Teilnehmer mit diesen Fragestellungen auseinander und erarbeiteten unter dem Titel Grüne Logistik: Standards generieren und umsetzen - aber wie? Vorschläge und Handlungsempfehlungen für die Praxis. Das IPP-Projekt ist für unterschiedliche Wirtschaftszweige von großem Interesse: So wurden weitere Workshops zu Themen wie Reach , Emissionen/ CDM , Bauwirtschaft und Recycling erfolgreich durchgeführt. Methoden: Analyse und Moderation sozialer Prozesse.
Goal of the project EcoTopTen 2.0 is increasing the supply and demand for highly energy-efficient ecological products and to motivate consumers through targeted Actions, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to relieve the environment. Importantelements are the regular update of EcoTopTen market overviews, cooperations with retailers, the action 'Save 1000 kWh', as well as accompanying social media activities.
For surface soils, the mechanisms controlling soil organic C turnover have been thoroughly investigated. The database on subsoil C dynamics, however, is scarce, although greater than 50 percent of SOC stocks are stored in deeper soil horizons. The transfer of results obtained from surface soil studies to deeper soil horizons is limited, because soil organic matter (SOM) in deeper soil layers is exposed to contrasting environmental conditions (e.g. more constant temperature and moisture regime, higher CO2 and lower O2 concentrations, increasing N and P limitation to C mineralization with soil depth) and differs in composition compared to SOM of the surface layer, which in turn entails differences in its decomposition. For a quantitative analysis of subsoil SOC dynamics, it is necessary to trace the origins of the soil organic compounds and the pathways of their transformations. Since SOM is composed of various C pools which turn over on different time scales, from hours to millennia, bulk measurements do not reflect the response of specific pools to both transient and long-term change and may significantly underestimate CO2 fluxes. More detailed information can be gained from the fractionation of subsoil SOM into different functional pools in combination with the use of stable and radioactive isotopes. Additionally, soil-respired CO2 isotopic signatures can be used to understand the role of environmental factors on the rate of SOM decomposition and the magnitude and source of CO2 fluxes. The aims of this study are to (i) determine CO2 production and subsoil C mineralization in situ, (ii) investigate the vertical distribution and origin of CO2 in the soil profile using 14CO2 and 13CO2 analyses in the Grinderwald, and to (iii) determine the effect of environmental controls (temperature, oxygen) on subsoil C turnover. We hypothesize that in-situ CO2 production in subsoils is mainly controlled by root distribution and activity and that CO2 produced in deeper soil depth derives to a large part from the mineralization of fresh root derived C inputs. Further, we hypothesize that a large part of the subsoil C is potentially degradable, but is mineralized slower compared with the surface soil due to possible temperature or oxygen limitation.
The proposal addresses the potential of subsoil to contribute to K nutrition of crops. More specifically we will address the processes controlling release of K from interlayer of 2:1 clay minerals as this is expected to be the dominant K fraction in the subsoil. While it has been shown in the past that this so called 'non-exchangeable' K can be released due to root activity, there are controversial results concerning the role of soil solution K concentration in the rhizosphere required to trigger the process. Likewise little information is available about the concentration dynamics of other cations (NH4, Ca) in the rhizosphere and their impact on K release and vermiculitization supposed to be associated with this process. Model studies with substrate from the central field trial will be conducted in compartment systems equipped with micro suction cups. The measurement of dynamic changes of soil solution composition with increasing distance from the root surface will be combined with investigations of changes in mineralogy by XRD, TEM and SEM-EDX. Changes of mineralogy as a result of plant induced K release from interlayer will also be studied on bulk soil and rhizosphere samples collected within the central field and the central microcosm experiment and with mineral bags exposed in the field during a cropping cycle. Finally, X-ray CT will be used to access changes in soil texture, i.e. clay distribution around roots and the temporal spread of roots in biopores which is a prerequisite for K uptake from such structures.
Die Bergwälder der Ostanden gehören zu den artenreichsten terrestrischen Ökosystemen der Erde, zugleich stehen sie unter immensem Nutzungsdruck (Abholzung, Umwandlung in Weideland). In einem multidiszilinären Ansatz aus Bio-, Geo-, Forst- und Agrarwissenschaften - von der Ebene des Organismus ausgehend bis hin zur Landschaftsebene - wollen wir an einem ausgewählten, für Forschungen zugänglichen ostandinen Bergwald in Südecuador ein solches Ökosystem, sowie seine gebietstypischen, durch menschliches Wirtschaften entstandenen Ersatzformationen beispielhaft analysieren. Dabei gilt es im ersten Schritt wichtige geowissenschaftliche und biologische Eigenschaften des Systems (Klima, Boden, Verfügbarkeit von Wasser und Nährelementen, Struktur und Artenzusammensetzung der Vegetation sowie Vorkommen und Vielfalt tierischer und pilzlicher Schlüsselorganismen: Pollinatoren, Samenverbreiter, Herbivore und Destruenten) zu erfassen. Im zweiten Schritt wird die Funktionsweise wichtiger Teilsystem erschlossen (Stoffflüsse zwischen wichtigen Kompartimenten, Dynamik und Regenrationspotentiale der Vegetation in Wechselwirkung mit der Fauna und den abiotischen Randbedingungen). Darauf aufbauend wollen wir drittens Optionen entwickeln bzw. überprüfen für eine nachhaltige Nutzung, Erhaltung und - soweit möglich - Rehabilitation des Waldes. Diese Erkenntnisse werden über das Untersuchungsgebiet hinaus für das ökosystemare Verständnis und Management tropischer Bergwälder von genereller Bedeutung.
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