Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
Background: An increasing frequency of massive flooding along the lower Yangtse River in China ended in a disastrous catastrophe in summer 1998 leaving several thousand people homeless, more than 3.600 dead and causing enormous economic damage. Inappropriate land-use techniques and large scale timber felling in the water catchment of the upper Yangtse and its feeder streams were stated to be the main causes. Immediate timber cutting bans were imposed and investigations on land use patterns were initiated by the Chinese Government. The Institute for World Forestry of the Federal Research Centre for Forestry and Forest Products was approached by the Yunnan Academy of Forestry in Kunming to exchange experiences and to cooperate scientifically in the design and application of appropriate afforestation and silvicultural management techniques in the water catchment area of the Yangtse. This cooperation was initiated in 1999 and is based on formal agreements in the fields of agrarian research between the German and Chinese Governments. Objectives: The cooperation was in the first step focussing on the identification of factors which caused the enormous floodings. After their identification measures of prevention were determined and put into practice. In this context experiences made in past centuries in the alpine region of central Europe served as an incentive and example for similar environmental problems and solutions under comparable conditions. Relevant key questions of the cooperation project were: - Analysis of forest related factors influencing the recent floodings of the Yangtse, - Analysis and evaluation of silvicultural management experiences from central Europe for know-how transfer, - Evaluation of rehabilitation measures for successful application in Yunnan, - Dissemination of knowledge through vocational training. Results: - Frequent wild grazing of husbandry is a key factor for forest degeneration beyond unsustainable timber harvests, forest fires and insect calamities leading to increased water run-off in the mountainous region of Yunnan; - Browsing of cattle interrupts succession thus avoiding natural regeneration and leaving a logging ban ineffective; - Mountain pasture in the Alps had similar effects in the past in central Europe. The introduction of controlled grazing has led to an ecologically compatible coexistence of pasture and ecology. Close-to-nature forestry can have positive effects in this sensitive environment. - Afforestation with site adopted broadleaves and coniferous tree species was implemented on demonstration level using advanced techniques in Yunnan.
The majority of the worlds forests has undergone some form of management, such as clear-cut or thinning. This management has direct relevance for global climate: Studies estimate that forest management emissions add a third to those from deforestation, while enhanced productivity in managed forests increases the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to act as a sink for carbon dioxide emissions. However, uncertainties in the assessment of these fluxes are large. Moreover, forests influence climate also by altering the energy and water balance of the land surface. In many regions of historical deforestation, such biogeophysical effects have substantially counteracted warming due to carbon dioxide emissions. However, the effect of management on biogeophysical effects is largely unknown beyond local case studies. While the effects of climate on forest productivity is well established in forestry models, the effects of forest management on climate is less understood. Closing this feedback cycle is crucial to understand the driving forces behind past climate changes to be able to predict future climate responses and thus the required effort to adapt to it or avert it. To investigate the role of forest management in the climate system I propose to integrate a forest management module into a comprehensive Earth system model. The resulting model will be able to simultaneously address both directions of the interactions between climate and the managed land surface. My proposed work includes model development and implementation for key forest management processes, determining the growth and stock of living biomass, soil carbon cycle, and biophysical land surface properties. With this unique tool I will be able to improve estimates of terrestrial carbon source and sink terms and to assess the susceptibility of past and future climate to combined carbon cycle and biophysical effects of forest management. Furthermore, representing feedbacks between forest management and climate in a global climate model could advance efforts to combat climate change. Changes in forest management are inevitable to adapt to future climate change. In this process, is it possible to identify win-win strategies for which local management changes do not only help adaptation, but at the same time mitigate global warming by presenting favorable effects on climate? The proposed work opens a range of long-term research paths, with the aim of strengthening the climate perspective in the economic considerations of forest management and helping to improve local decisionmaking with respect to adaptation and mitigation.
In Kuehlschmierstoffen aller Typen vermehren sich Bakterien und Pilze bis zu Koloniezahlen von 10exp(6) bis 10exp(8)/ml. Darmbakterien sowie Entzuendungserreger koennen in Mengen bis zu 10exp(5)/ml vorkommen. Systematische Untersuchungen auf die genannten Erreger fehlen ebenso bisher wie Kenntnisse ueber deren Vermehrungsbedingungen, z.B. in Abhaengigkeit vom Alter der Emulsionen.
Die Veränderung des globalen Wasserkreislaufs durch den Klimawandel ist eine der größten Herausforderungen für die Gesellschaft, da trockene Regionen trockener und feuchte Regionen feuchter werden. Das Problem besteht darin, dass 85 % der Verdunstung und 77 % der Niederschläge über den Ozeanen stattfinden und der globale Wasserkreislauf aufgrund der schwierigen Beobachtungsbedingungen über den Ozeanen nur unzureichend verstanden wird. Der Austausch von Süßwasser zwischen dem Ozean und der Atmosphäre findet jedoch in einer obersten dünnen Schicht der Meeresoberfläche statt, den so genannten Oberflächenfilm. Die Verdunstung von Wasserdampf aus den Oberflächenfilmen erhöht deren Salzgehalt, während der Niederschlag den Salzgehalt in den Oberflächenfilmen verringert. Das Hauptziel dieses Forschungsprojekts ist ein umfassendes Verständnis der Dynamik und der Veränderungen des Salzgehalts und der damit zusammenhängenden thermischen Felder in den ozeanischen Oberflächenfilmen und der oberflächennahen Schicht (NSL) sowie deren Zusammenhang mit den verdunstenden Süßwasserflüssen zu erzielen. Einer der Hauptpunkte dieser Arbeit ist, dass Süsswasserflüsse (Verdunstung minus Niederschlag) direkt auf die Meeresoberfläche einwirkt und daher vorwiegend den Salzgehalt der Oberflächenfilme quasi-instant beeinflusst, während die derzeitigen Methoden, die den Salzgehalt der gemischten Schicht verwenden, sich auf dekadischen Skalen beziehen. Eine umfassende Reihe von Experimenten wird in einer großmaßstäblichen Mesokosmenanlage an der Universität Oldenburg durchgeführt, in der die treibenden Kräfte für die Verdunstung kontrolliert werden können (Wassertemperatur, Windgeschwindigkeit, turbulente Vermischung, Lufttemperatur und -feuchtigkeit). Im Mittelpunkt steht eine Expedition in den Mittelatlantik mit seinem hohen Oberflächensalzgehalt, d. h. Verdunstungsraten übersteigen die Niederschlagsraten. Während der Expedition kommt ein funkgesteuertes Katamaran zum Einsatz, der in der Lage ist, Oberflächenfilme zu sammeln. Die Beobachtungen werden durch Messungen von Bojen, schiffsbasierten Messungen und Satelliten unterstützt. Die Arbeiten ergänzen die laufenden Aktivitäten zur Untersuchung des Zusammenhangs zwischen dem Salzgehalt der Oberflächenfilme und den Niederschlägen. Diese Arbeit ist ein erster Schritt, um zu verstehen, wie der Salzgehalt der Oberflächenfilme und der oberflächennahe Salzgehalt verwendet werden können, um dynamische Süsswasserflüsse zu integrieren und Parametrisierungen zur Extrapolation von Süsswasserflüssen unter Verwendung von satellitengestützten Salzgehaltsdaten zu entwickeln.
Marines Mikroplastik (MMP) ist eine zunehmende anthropogene Verschmutzung in den Meeren. Der Einfluss auf marine Tiere, durch Verfangen und verschlucken von Plastikmüll, ist bekannt. Aber der Einfluss von MMP auf Mikroorganismen, wie Bakterien, Archaeen und Protisten, die die Basis der Nahrungsnetze bilden, ist kaum verstanden. Auf Grund der besonderen Eigenschaften von MMP, kann es als neues Habitat und als Transportmittel für bestimmte u.a. auch gesundheitsgefährdende Mikroorganismen dienen, die über lange Distanzen bis in entlegene Regionen transportiert werden können. Darüber hinaus kann MMP das Zusammenleben von Mikroorganismen in enger Nachbarschaft ermöglichen und die Stoffwechselwege vieler verschiedener Verbindungen beeinflussen. Um den Einfluss von MMP und ihrer assoziierten Mikroorgansimen auf marine Ökosysteme zu verstehen, müssen wir die Zusammensetzung und Interaktionen von mikrobiellen Gemeinschaften auf MMP identifizieren und ihre globale Ausbreitung untersuchen. Ich möchte die Diversität und die räumliche Verteilung von mikrobiellen Gemeinschaften auf MMP charakterisieren. Proben von MMP wurde bereits von meinem Gastinstitut in verschiedenen Meeresregionen (Atlantik, Pazifik, Indischer Ozean) gesammelt. Mein Ziel ist es: 1) zu identifizieren, welche Mikroorganismen auf MMP vorkommen; 2) die lokale Verteilung und Struktur der mikrobiellen Gemeinschaft auf MMP und in Experimenten auf Bioplastikpartikeln zu untersuchen; 3) zu verstehen, welche Mikroorganismen am stärksten mit der Polymer Oberfläche assoziiert sind; 4) herauszufinden, ob es charakteristische Mikrobiome auf MMP in verschiedenen Meeresregionen gibt und 5) zu untersuchen, welche Mikroorganismen MMP abbauen können. Die Chancen für die erfolgreiche Durchführung des vorgeschlagenen Projekts ist hoch, da präperierte Proben bereits in meinem Gastlabor vorhanden sind, an denen die innovative Mikroskopiertechnik namens CLASIFISH (Combinatorial Labelling and Spectral Imaging Fluorescence In Situ Hybridization) angewandt werden kann. Diese Methode ermöglicht es viele verschiedene Mikroorganismen und ihre räumliche Verteilung auf einem Plastikpartikel schnell und präzise zu identifizieren. Ich möchte diese Methode an Proben aus dem Atlantik und Pazifik anwenden, sowie Mikroben identifizieren, die im offenen Ozean Plastik abbauen. Zusätzlich möchte ich Inkubationsexperimente mit Bakterienkulturen, die bereits auf Plastik identifiziert wurden und in meinem Gastinstitut zur Verfügung stehen, auf Bioplastikpartikeln durchführen. Mit diesen Experimenten möchte ich herausfinden, wie sich mikrobielle Gemeinschaften auf Bioplastik über die Zeit entwickeln und ob bzw. wie diese Mikroben Plastik abbauen. Für diese Inkubationsexperimente möchte ich FISH, CLASIFISH, scanning electron microscopy sowie metagenomische und metatranscriptomische Ansätze verwenden.
Perennial fodder cropping potentially increases subsoil biopore density by formation of extensive root systems and temporary soil rest. We will quantify root length density, earthworm abundance and biopore size classes after Medicago sativa, Cichorium intybus and Festuca arundinacea grown for 1, 2 and 3 years respectively in the applied research unit's Central Field Trial (CeFiT) which is established and maintained by our working group. Shoot parameters including transpiration, gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence will frequently be recorded. Precrop effects on oilseed rape and cereals will be quantified with regard to crop yield, nutrient transfer and H2-release. The soil associated with biopores (i.e. the driloshpere) is generally rich in nutrients as compared to the bulk soil and is therefore supposed to be a potential hot spot for nutrient acquisition. However, contact areas between roots and the pore wall have been reported to be low. It is still unclear to which extent the nutrients present in the drilosphere are used and which potential relevance subsoil biopores may have for the nutrient supply of crops. We will use a flexible videoscope to determine the root-soil contact in biopores. Nitrogen input into the drilosphere by earthworms and potential re-uptake of nitrogen from the drilosphere by subsequent crops with different rooting systems (oilseed rape vs. cereals) will be quantified using 15N as a tracer.
Gefrierkonservierungen wurden bisher nur bei wenigen Fischarten erfolgreich durchgefuehrt. Weiterentwicklung der Methoden ist notwendig. Ziel: Schaffung praxisreifer Methoden zur Anwendung bei der kontrollierten Vermehrung von Fischen. Methoden: Konservierung in Fluessigstickstoff.
Outbreaks of foodborne illness linked to consumptions of fresh, or partially processed, agricultural products are a growing concern in industrialized and developing countries. The incidence of human pathogens on fresh fruits and vegetables is often related to the use of recycled wastewaster in surface irrigation as well as high amounts of animal manure in agricultural management practice. Thereby the soil inhabiting fauna plays an important role in the transport and dissemination of microorganisms. The focus of the proposed project is on nematodes, well known vectors for bacteria and viruses in soil. The major goals are to: (1) survey human pathogens in soil and on/in free-living and plant parasitic nematodes in agriculture field sites irrigated with recycled wastewater or fertilized with fresh animal manure in Israel and the Palestinian Authority, (2) assess the function of nematodes as vectors in transmitting bacteria from microbial hot spots to plants, and (3) localize bacteria on and/or within the nematode and identify bacterial factors required for survival in the nematode host. Understanding the mechanisms involved in dissemination of human pathogens by nematodes will enhance the ability to develop practical means to minimize contamination of fresh produce and increase safety in food production.
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