Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is one major source of subsoil organic matter (OM). P5 aims at quantifying the impact of DOM input, transport, and transformation to the OC storage in the subsoil environment. The central hypotheses of this proposal are that in matric soil the increasing 14C age of organic carbon (OC) with soil depth is due to a cascade effect, thus, leading to old OC in young subsoil, whereas within preferential flowpaths sorptive stabilization is weak, and young and bioa-vailable DOM is translocated to the subsoil at high quantities. These hypotheses will be tested by a combination of DOC flux measurements with the comparative analysis of the composition and the turnover of DOM and mineral-associated OM. The work programme utilizes a DOM monitoring at the Grinderwald subsoil observatory, supplemented by defined experiments under field and labora-tory conditions, and laboratory DOM leaching experiments on soils of regional variability. A central aspect of the experiments is the link of a 13C-leaf litter labelling experiment to the 14C age of DOM and OM. With that P5 contributes to the grand goal of the research unit and addresses the general hypotheses that subsoil OM largely consists of displaced and old OM from overlying horizons, the sorption capacity of DOM and the pool size of mineral-associated OM are controlled by interaction with minerals, and that preferential flowpaths represent 'hot spots' of high substrate availability.
It is well established that reduced supply of fresh organic matter, interactions of organic matter with mineral phases and spatial inaccessibility affect C stocks in subsoils. However, quantitative information required for a better understanding of the contribution of each of the different processes to C sequestration in subsoils and for improvements of subsoil C models is scarce. The same is true for the main controlling factors of the decomposition rates of soil organic matter in subsoils. Moreover, information on spatial variabilities of different properties in the subsoil is rare. The few studies available which couple near and middle infrared spectroscopy (NIRS/MIRS) with geostatistical approaches indicate a potential for the creation of spatial maps which may show hot spots with increased biological activities in the soil profile and their effects on the distribution of C contents. Objectives are (i) to determine the mean residence time of subsoil C in different fractions by applying fractionation procedures in combination with 14C measurements; (ii) to study the effects of water content, input of 13C-labelled roots and dissolved organic matter and spatial inaccessibility on C turnover in an automatic microcosm system; (iii) to determine general soil properties and soil biological and chemical characteristics using NIRS and MIRS, and (iv) to extrapolate the measured and estimated soil properties to the vertical profiles by using different spatial interpolation techniques. For the NIRS/MIRS applications, sample pretreatment (air-dried vs. freeze-dried samples) and calibration procedures (a modified partial least square (MPLS) approach vs. a genetic algorithm coupled with MPLS or PLS) will be optimized. We hypothesize that the combined application of chemical fractionation in combination with 14C measurements and the results of the incubation experiments will give the pool sizes of passive, intermediate, labile and very labile C and N and the mean residence times of labile and very labile C and N. These results will make it possible to initialize the new quantitative model to be developed by subproject PC. Additionally, we hypothesize that the sample pretreatment 'freeze-drying' will be more useful for the estimation of soil biological characteristics than air-drying. The GA-MPLS and GA-PLS approaches are expected to give better estimates of the soil characteristics than the MPLS and PLS approaches. The spatial maps for the different subsoil characteristics in combination with the spatial maps of temperature and water contents will presumably enable us to explain the spatial heterogeneity of C contents.
For surface soils, the mechanisms controlling soil organic C turnover have been thoroughly investigated. The database on subsoil C dynamics, however, is scarce, although greater than 50 percent of SOC stocks are stored in deeper soil horizons. The transfer of results obtained from surface soil studies to deeper soil horizons is limited, because soil organic matter (SOM) in deeper soil layers is exposed to contrasting environmental conditions (e.g. more constant temperature and moisture regime, higher CO2 and lower O2 concentrations, increasing N and P limitation to C mineralization with soil depth) and differs in composition compared to SOM of the surface layer, which in turn entails differences in its decomposition. For a quantitative analysis of subsoil SOC dynamics, it is necessary to trace the origins of the soil organic compounds and the pathways of their transformations. Since SOM is composed of various C pools which turn over on different time scales, from hours to millennia, bulk measurements do not reflect the response of specific pools to both transient and long-term change and may significantly underestimate CO2 fluxes. More detailed information can be gained from the fractionation of subsoil SOM into different functional pools in combination with the use of stable and radioactive isotopes. Additionally, soil-respired CO2 isotopic signatures can be used to understand the role of environmental factors on the rate of SOM decomposition and the magnitude and source of CO2 fluxes. The aims of this study are to (i) determine CO2 production and subsoil C mineralization in situ, (ii) investigate the vertical distribution and origin of CO2 in the soil profile using 14CO2 and 13CO2 analyses in the Grinderwald, and to (iii) determine the effect of environmental controls (temperature, oxygen) on subsoil C turnover. We hypothesize that in-situ CO2 production in subsoils is mainly controlled by root distribution and activity and that CO2 produced in deeper soil depth derives to a large part from the mineralization of fresh root derived C inputs. Further, we hypothesize that a large part of the subsoil C is potentially degradable, but is mineralized slower compared with the surface soil due to possible temperature or oxygen limitation.
Background: An increasing frequency of massive flooding along the lower Yangtse River in China ended in a disastrous catastrophe in summer 1998 leaving several thousand people homeless, more than 3.600 dead and causing enormous economic damage. Inappropriate land-use techniques and large scale timber felling in the water catchment of the upper Yangtse and its feeder streams were stated to be the main causes. Immediate timber cutting bans were imposed and investigations on land use patterns were initiated by the Chinese Government. The Institute for World Forestry of the Federal Research Centre for Forestry and Forest Products was approached by the Yunnan Academy of Forestry in Kunming to exchange experiences and to cooperate scientifically in the design and application of appropriate afforestation and silvicultural management techniques in the water catchment area of the Yangtse. This cooperation was initiated in 1999 and is based on formal agreements in the fields of agrarian research between the German and Chinese Governments. Objectives: The cooperation was in the first step focussing on the identification of factors which caused the enormous floodings. After their identification measures of prevention were determined and put into practice. In this context experiences made in past centuries in the alpine region of central Europe served as an incentive and example for similar environmental problems and solutions under comparable conditions. Relevant key questions of the cooperation project were: - Analysis of forest related factors influencing the recent floodings of the Yangtse, - Analysis and evaluation of silvicultural management experiences from central Europe for know-how transfer, - Evaluation of rehabilitation measures for successful application in Yunnan, - Dissemination of knowledge through vocational training. Results: - Frequent wild grazing of husbandry is a key factor for forest degeneration beyond unsustainable timber harvests, forest fires and insect calamities leading to increased water run-off in the mountainous region of Yunnan; - Browsing of cattle interrupts succession thus avoiding natural regeneration and leaving a logging ban ineffective; - Mountain pasture in the Alps had similar effects in the past in central Europe. The introduction of controlled grazing has led to an ecologically compatible coexistence of pasture and ecology. Close-to-nature forestry can have positive effects in this sensitive environment. - Afforestation with site adopted broadleaves and coniferous tree species was implemented on demonstration level using advanced techniques in Yunnan.
BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Jordan belongs to the ten water scarcest countries in the world, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency of future droughts. Jordan is considered among the 10 most water impoverished countries in the world, with per capita water availability estimated at 170 m per annum, compared to an average of 1,000 m per annum in other countries. Jordan Government has taken the strategic decision to develop a conveyor system including a 325 km pipe to pump 100 million cubic meters per year of potable water from Disi-Mudawwara close to the Saudi Border in the south, to the Greater Amman area in the north. The construction of the water pipeline has started end of 2009 and shall be finished in 2013. Later on, the pipeline could serve as a major part of a national water carrier in order to convey desalinated water from the Red Sea to the economically most important central region of the country. The conveyor project will not only significantly increase water supplies to the capital, but also provide for the re-allocation of current supplies to other governorates, and for the conservation of aquifers. In the context of the Disi project that is co-funded by EIB two Environmental and Social Management Plans have been prepared: one for the private project partners and one for the Jordan Government. The latter includes the Governments obligation to re-balance water allocations to irrigation and to gradually restore the protected wetlands of Azraq (Ramsar site) east of Amman that has been depleted due to over-abstraction by re-directing discharge of highland aquifers after the Disi pipeline becomes operational. The Water Strategy recognizes that groundwater extraction for irrigation is beyond acceptable limits. Since the source is finite and priority should be given to human consumption it proposes to tackle the demand for irrigation through tariff adjustments, improved irrigation technology and disincentive to water intensive crops. The Disi aquifer is currently used for irrigation by farms producing all kinds of fruits and vegetables on a large scale and exporting most of their products to the Saudi and European markets and it is almost a third of Jordan's total consumption. The licenses for that commercial irrigation were finished by 2011/12. Whilst the licenses will be not renewed the difficulty will be the enforcement and satellite based information become an important supporting tool for monitoring. OUTLOOK: The ESA funded project Water management had the objective to support the South-North conveyor project and the activities of EIB together with the MWI in Jordan to ensure the supply of water for the increasing demand. EO Information provides a baseline for land cover and elevation and support the monitoring of further stages. usw.
Although global pesticide use increases steadily, our field-data based knowledge regarding exposure of non-target ecosystems is very restricted. Consequently, this meta-analysis will for the first time evaluate the worldwide available peer-reviewed information on agricultural insecticide concentrations in surface water or sediment and test the following two hypotheses: I) Insecticide concentrations in the field largely exceed regulatory threshold levels and II) Additional factors important for threshold level exceedances can be quantified using retrospective meta-analysis. A feasibility study using a restricted dataset (n = 377) suggested the significance of the expected results, i.e. an threshold level exceedance rate of more than 50Prozent of the detected concentrations. Subsequent to a comprehensive database search in the peer-reviewed literature of the past 60 years, analysis of covariance with the relevant threshold level exceedance as the continuous dependent variable (about 10,000 cases) will be performed and the impact of significant predictor variables will be quantified. Parameters not yet considered in pesticide exposure assessment will be included as independent variables, such as compound class, environmental regulatory quality, and sampling design. The simultaneous presence of several insecticide compounds as a well as their metabolites will also be considered in the evaluation. The present approach may provide an innovative and integrated view on the potential environmental side effects of global high-intensity agriculture and in particular of pesticides use.
Up to recent years, the study of trends and variability of the salinity (and freshwater) distributions was hampered by the lack of temporal and spatial resolution of the available observations (Wang DFG form 54.011 - 1/12 page 3 of 6 et al., 2010). With the onset of the Argo programme, the number of observed salinity profiles have significantly increased. The many Argo profiles distributed evenly over the year provide not only the means to calculate seasonally averaged salinity (and freshwater) distributions, but they can also be used to calculate regional Gravest Empirical Modes (GEMs) parameterized by pressure and dynamic height. Dynamic height is measured by altimetry and high quality altimeter data are available since 1992. GEMs will be used to construct from altimetry high resolution (in time and space) salinity, temperature and density fields. The objectives of the proposal are to - combine Argo/CTD profiles and altimetry to calculate temporal and spatial high resolution salinity fields in the mixed layer and in the upper 1500-2000m for the time period 1992 - 2013 for the subpolar and the subtropical Atlantic. - Construct regional freshwater budgets for the mixed layer and the upper 1500-2000m and estimate the contributions of the main processes to the observed change - Follow salinity anomalies from their origin along their circulation pathways, and study involved mechanisms (for instance role of eddies, mean circulation) for shallow, intermediate and deep water masses - Investigate changes in the formation of North Atlantic mode waters in the subpolar and subtropical gyre
Die erste Antragsphase war auf die Bildungsraten und die Speicherung von anthropogenem Kohlenstoff (Cant) im Antarktischen Zwischenwasser (AAIW) fokussiert. Mit Hilfe von Freon (CFC) Daten konnten wir eine signifikante Reduktion der AAIW Bildungsrate von den 1990ern zu den 2000ern Jahren feststellen. Dies führte zu einer geringeren Steigerung der Cant Speicherung als vom atmosphärischen Cant Anstieg und einem unveränderten Ozean zu erwarten war. Um den Schwierigkeiten mit den Randbedingungen auszuweichen (Pazifisches AAIW strömt über die Drake Passage auch in den Atlantik und weiter in den Indischen Ozean) planen wir nun ein globales Vorgehen um in allen Ozeanen die Bildungsraten und Cant Speicherungen in den Zwischen- Tiefen- und Bodenwassermassen zu berechnen. Darüber hinaus wird der Zeitraum bis 2015 ausgedehnt, und wo immer die Datenlage es zulässt, Pentaden- anstatt Dekadenmittelwerte gebildet. Verwendet wird der aktualisierte GlODAPv2 Datensatz und eigene Daten.Die Berechnungen aus den Beobachtungen werden mit den Ergebnissen eines wirbelauflösenden globalen Ozeanmodells (1/10 Grad) kombiniert. Das POP Modell (Los Alamos Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program) mit eines horizontalen Auflösung von 0.1 Grad und 42 Tiefenstufen wird für die letzten 20 Jahre mit einem realistischen Forcing angetrieben und enthält außerdem die Freone als Tracer. Neben dem Vergleich mit einem klimatologischen Antrieb wird das Modell zur Weiterentwicklung der Tracer-Methode verwendet wir z.B. die Unsicherheit von zu wenig Datenpunkten und der Extrpolationsroutine auf die Bildungsraten / Cant Speicherungen. Ein weiterer wichtiger Punkt wird die Bestimmung der TTDs aus Lagrange Trajektorien und der Vergleich mit TTDs aus Tracermessungen sein, sowie die Untersuchung der Rolle der Wirbel, der Vermischung durch Wirbel und der vertikalen Vermischung.
Magnetic properties of ferrimagnetic minerals depend on their crystal lattice, anisotropy, chemical composition and grain size. The latter parameter is strongly controlled by microstructures, which are significant for the interpretation of the magnetic properties of shocked magnetic minerals. Fracturing and lattice defects are the main causes for magnetic domain size reduction and generate an increase in coercivity and the suppression of magnetic transitions (e.g. 34 K transition in pyrrhotite, Verwey transition in magnetite).Especially for an adequate investigation of shock-induced modifications in ferromagnetic minerals, a combination of microstructural and magnetic measurements is therefore essential.This project focusses on two significant aspects of extreme conditions - the consequence of shock waves on natural material on Earth and on the magnetic mineralogy of exotic magnetic minerals in iron meteorites. In order to obtain general correlations between deformation structures and magnetic properties, the specific magnetic properties and carriers as well as microstructures of samples from two impact structures in marine targets (Lockne and Chesapeake Bay) will be compared with shocked magnetite ore and magnetite-bearing target lithologies from outside the crater (Lockne) as well as from undeformed megablocks within the crater (Chesapeake Bay). We will test the hypothesis if shock-related microstructures and associated magnetic properties can significantly be overprinted by postshock hydrothermal alteration. We especially want to focus on the Verwey transition (TV) as lower TVs are described for shocked impact lithologies. Hence, the main focus of this study lies on magneto-mineralogical investigations which combine low- and high-temperature magnetic susceptibility and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization with mineralogical and microstructural investigations. The same methods will then be used for the investigation of iron meteorites, whose magnetic properties are often controled by exotic magnetic minerals like cohenite, schreibersite and daubreelite in addition to the metal phases. Magnetic transition temperatures of those phases are poorly documented in relation to their chemical composition as well as to their crystallographic and microstructural configuration. For a general understanding of shock-related magnetization processes in extraterrestrial and terrestrial material, however, it is crucial to obtain a general correlation between the initial 'unshocked' state and the subsequent shock- and alteration-related overprints.
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