Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
Der Ozean im Westpazifik ist mit Temperaturen von ganzjährig 30°C der wärmste Ozean der Welt. Im tropischen Westpazifik ist die Lufttemperatur der Grenzschicht weltweit am höchsten und die Ozonkonzentration am niedrigsten. Aufgrund der allgemeinen Advektion der Luftmassen in der unteren und mittleren Troposphäre aus dem Osten durch die Walker-Zirkulation über den Pazifik befindet sich die Luft über dem tropischen Westpazifik für längere Zeit in einer sauberen, warmen und feuchten Umgebung. Der Abbau von reaktiven Sauerstoff- und Ozonvorläufern wie NOx findet daher länger als anderswo in den Tropen, was zu sehr niedrigen Ozonkonzentrationen führte. Dies erhöht die Lebensdauer von kurzlebigen biogenen und anthropogenen Spurengasen. Darüber hinaus begünstigen hohe Meeresoberflächentemperaturen eine starke Konvektion im tropischen Westpazifik, was zu niedrigen Ozonmischungsverhältnissen in den konvektiven Ausflussgebieten in der oberen Troposphäre führen kann. Der Warmpool im Westpazifik ist auch eine wichtige Quellregion für stratosphärische Luft. Daher fallen die Region, in der die Lebensdauer kurzlebiger Spurengase erhöht ist, und die Quellregion der stratosphärischen Luft zusammen. Somit bestimmt die Zusammensetzung der troposphärischen Atmosphäre in dieser Region in hohem Maße auch die globale stratosphärische Zusammensetzung.Ozon ist aufgrund von Rückkopplungsprozessen zwischen Temperatur, Dynamik und Ozon ein wichtiges Spurengas in der Klimaforschung. Da der Warmpool im Westpazifik die Hauptquellenregion für stratosphärische Luft ist, ist die Kenntnis von Ozon und anderen kurzlebigen Spurengasen auch wichtig, um den Transport von Spurengasen in die Stratosphäre zu verstehen.Ziel unseres Projektes ist die Messung des Tagesgangs von Ozon und anderen Spurengasen mit Hilfe der hochauflösenden solaren Absorptions-FTIR-Spektroskopie. Die Messungen liefern die Gesamtsäulendichten von bis zu 20 Spurengasen. Für einige Spurengase erlaubt die Analyse der Spektrallinienform die Ableitung der Konzentrationsprofile in bis zu etwa vier atmosphärischen Höhenschichten. Ergänzt werden die Beobachtungen durch Ozonballonsondierungen, kontinuierliche Messungen der UV-Strahlung, und Modellrechnungen mit einem Chemie-Transport-Modell. Die Messungen sind für den Zeitraum August bis Oktober 2022 geplant, die Auswertung und Interpretation von November 2022 bis Januar 2023.
Recent and predicted increases in extremely dry and hot summers emphasise the need for silvicultural approaches to increase the drought tolerance of existing forests in the short-term, before adaptation through species changes may be possible. We aim to investigate whether resistance during droughts, as well as the recovery following drought events (resilience), can be increased by allocating more growing space to individual trees through thinning. Thinning increases access of promoted trees to soil stored water, as long as this is available. However, these trees may also be disadvantaged through a higher transpirational surface, or the increased neighbourhood competition by ground vegetation. To assess whether trees with different growing space differ in drought tolerance, tree discs and cores from thinning experiments of Pinus sylvestris and Pseudotsuga menziesii stands will be used to examine transpirational stress and growth reduction during previous droughts as well as their subsequent recovery. Dendroecology and stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen in tree-rings will be used to quantify how assimilation rate and stomatal conductance were altered through thinning. The results will provide crucial information for the development of short-term silvicultural adaptation strategies to adapt forest ecosystems to climate change. In addition, this study will improve our understanding of the relationship between resistance and resilience of trees in relation to extreme stress events.
In the last decades agricultural policy has gained increasingly in complexity. Nowadays it influences the food and agricultural sector from the global market down to the farm level. Widespread research questions, like the impact of the WTO negotiations on the farm structure, most often require comprehensive modeling frameworks. Thus, different types of models are utilized according to their comparative advantages and combined in a strategically useful way to more accurately represent micro and macro aspects of the food and agricultural sector. Consequently, in recent years we have seen an increase in the development and application of model linkages. Given this background, the overall objective of this subproject is a systematic sensitivity analysis of model linkages that gradually involves more and more characteristics of the linkage and the corresponding transfer of results between models. In addition, the project aims to answer the following specific question: How does structural change at the farm level influence aggregate supply and technical progress? Under which conditions is it possible to derive macro-relationships from micro-relationships? How does the aggregation level influence the model results and how can possible problems be overcome? This procedure is used to quantify the effects and to derive conditions for optimal interaction of the connected models. The analysis is based on the general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the farm group model FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System) which are employed in conjunction to analyze the effects of WTO negotiations on the farm level.
Magnetic properties of ferrimagnetic minerals depend on their crystal lattice, anisotropy, chemical composition and grain size. The latter parameter is strongly controlled by microstructures, which are significant for the interpretation of the magnetic properties of shocked magnetic minerals. Fracturing and lattice defects are the main causes for magnetic domain size reduction and generate an increase in coercivity and the suppression of magnetic transitions (e.g. 34 K transition in pyrrhotite, Verwey transition in magnetite).Especially for an adequate investigation of shock-induced modifications in ferromagnetic minerals, a combination of microstructural and magnetic measurements is therefore essential.This project focusses on two significant aspects of extreme conditions - the consequence of shock waves on natural material on Earth and on the magnetic mineralogy of exotic magnetic minerals in iron meteorites. In order to obtain general correlations between deformation structures and magnetic properties, the specific magnetic properties and carriers as well as microstructures of samples from two impact structures in marine targets (Lockne and Chesapeake Bay) will be compared with shocked magnetite ore and magnetite-bearing target lithologies from outside the crater (Lockne) as well as from undeformed megablocks within the crater (Chesapeake Bay). We will test the hypothesis if shock-related microstructures and associated magnetic properties can significantly be overprinted by postshock hydrothermal alteration. We especially want to focus on the Verwey transition (TV) as lower TVs are described for shocked impact lithologies. Hence, the main focus of this study lies on magneto-mineralogical investigations which combine low- and high-temperature magnetic susceptibility and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization with mineralogical and microstructural investigations. The same methods will then be used for the investigation of iron meteorites, whose magnetic properties are often controled by exotic magnetic minerals like cohenite, schreibersite and daubreelite in addition to the metal phases. Magnetic transition temperatures of those phases are poorly documented in relation to their chemical composition as well as to their crystallographic and microstructural configuration. For a general understanding of shock-related magnetization processes in extraterrestrial and terrestrial material, however, it is crucial to obtain a general correlation between the initial 'unshocked' state and the subsequent shock- and alteration-related overprints.
Beach sand deposits are widespread in the area around Sandefjord, at the western coast of the Oslofjord, southern Norway. The age of the deposits continuously increases with elevation, as the area has been subject to steady glacio-isostatic uplift throughout the Holocene. Existing local sea level curves provide age control related to elevation. Thus, the area offers excellent conditions to test hypotheses on soil formation and OSL dating. A chronosequence covering the last 10 000 years will be established. A preliminary study showed that soil formation leads to Podzols within 4300 - 6600 years. Micromorphological analyses suggest that clay illuviation takes place before and below podzolisation. It is hypothesised that clay translocation goes on contemporarily with podzolisation, but at greater soil depth, where the chemical conditions are suitable. This hypothesis will be proved by more detailed micromorphological investigation and chemical analyses. The factors controlling soil forming processes and their rates, will be determined by analyzing elemental composition, primary minerals and clay mineralogy. Preliminary OSL dating tests suggest that the beach sand deposits are OSL dateable despite the high latitude. This hypothesis will be checked by comparing OSL datings to ages derived from the 14C-based sea level curves.
Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is one major source of subsoil organic matter (OM). P5 aims at quantifying the impact of DOM input, transport, and transformation to the OC storage in the subsoil environment. The central hypotheses of this proposal are that in matric soil the increasing 14C age of organic carbon (OC) with soil depth is due to a cascade effect, thus, leading to old OC in young subsoil, whereas within preferential flowpaths sorptive stabilization is weak, and young and bioa-vailable DOM is translocated to the subsoil at high quantities. These hypotheses will be tested by a combination of DOC flux measurements with the comparative analysis of the composition and the turnover of DOM and mineral-associated OM. The work programme utilizes a DOM monitoring at the Grinderwald subsoil observatory, supplemented by defined experiments under field and labora-tory conditions, and laboratory DOM leaching experiments on soils of regional variability. A central aspect of the experiments is the link of a 13C-leaf litter labelling experiment to the 14C age of DOM and OM. With that P5 contributes to the grand goal of the research unit and addresses the general hypotheses that subsoil OM largely consists of displaced and old OM from overlying horizons, the sorption capacity of DOM and the pool size of mineral-associated OM are controlled by interaction with minerals, and that preferential flowpaths represent 'hot spots' of high substrate availability.
Die Effizienz des Beuteerwerbs bestimmt, ob Tiere erfolgreich Nachkommen großziehen und gleichzeitig ihre eigene Körperkondition erhalten und Prädation vermeiden können, ob sie also eine hohe Fitness (gemessen als lebenslangen Fortpflanzungserfolg) erreichen können. Die Effizienz des Beuteerwerbs könnte auch Auswirkungen auf die Dynamik von Tierpopulationen haben: an Orten mit geringen energetischen Kosten sollte ein Populationszuwachs zu verzeichnen sein, während erhöhte Nahrungssuchkosten eher zu einer Populationsabnahme führen sollten. Es gibt zahlreiche Studien zum Beuteerwerb von Tieren, die sich darauf konzentrieren, die räumliche Verteilung der Tiere zu beschreiben. Dagegen sind die Mechanismen, die zu dieser Verteilung führen, weitgehend noch nicht untersucht. Diese Lücke könnte durch den Einsatz neuer Methoden in der Analyse von Tierbewegungen geschlossen werden. Durch den Einsatz von dreidimensionalen Beschleunigungsmessern können Daten des Habitats mit Beschleunigungsdaten der Tierbewegungen verschnitten werden. Die energetische Kosten der Bewegungen im potentiellen Beuteraum werden berechnet, und in eine Energie-Landschaft (Energy landscape) übertragen. Ich schlage hier vor, diese neue Technologie und Methodik anzuwenden, um den Einfluss der Effizienz des Beuteerwerbs auf die Dynamik von Tierpopulationen zu untersuchen. Ich werde Energielandschaften für Eselspinguine als Modellart für einen Antarktischen Prädator modellieren, der sehr erfolgreich auf jüngste Umweltveränderungen reagiert hat. Ich werde untersuchen, wie sich die Effizienz des Beuteerwerbs zwischen Populationen im optimalen Habitat (Antarktische Halbinsel, Populationszuwachs) und suboptimalen Habitat (Falklandinseln, stark schwankende Populationen) unterscheidet. Durch den Vergleich der Nutzung von Energielandschaften werde ich untersuchen, welche Bedingungen zu hoher Körperkondition und Fortpflanzungserfolg der Eselspinguine führen und die erfolgreiche Expansion der Art in antarktischem Habitat ermöglichen. Die Ergebnisse sollen dazu beitragen, zu verstehen, wie Tiere auf veränderte Umweltbedingungen reagieren, wie sie derzeit durch die Einflüsse des Klimawandels entstehen.
The sorption of anions in geotechnical multibarrier systems of planned high level waste repositories (HLWR) and of non-ionic and organic pollutants in conventional waste disposals are in the center of recent research. In aquatic systems, persistent radionuclides such as 79Se, 99Tc, 129I exist in a form of anions. There is strongly increasing need to find materials with high sorption capacities for such pollutants. Specific requirements on barrier materials are long-term stability of adsorbent under various conditions such as T > 100 C, varying hydrostatic pressure, and the presence of competing ions. Organo-clays are capable to sorb high amounts of cations, anions and non-polar molecules simultaneously having selectivity for certain ions. This project is proposed to improve the understanding of sorption and desorption processes in organo-clays. Additionally, the modification of material properties under varying chemical and thermal conditions will be determined by performing diffusion and advection experiments. Changes by sorption and diffusion will be analyzed by determining surface charge and contact angles. Molecular simulations on models of organo-clays will be conducted in an accord with experiments with aim to understand and analyze experimental results. The computational part of the project will profit from the collaboration of German partner with the group in Vienna, which has a long standing experience in a modeling of clay minerals.
Die erste Antragsphase war auf die Bildungsraten und die Speicherung von anthropogenem Kohlenstoff (Cant) im Antarktischen Zwischenwasser (AAIW) fokussiert. Mit Hilfe von Freon (CFC) Daten konnten wir eine signifikante Reduktion der AAIW Bildungsrate von den 1990ern zu den 2000ern Jahren feststellen. Dies führte zu einer geringeren Steigerung der Cant Speicherung als vom atmosphärischen Cant Anstieg und einem unveränderten Ozean zu erwarten war. Um den Schwierigkeiten mit den Randbedingungen auszuweichen (Pazifisches AAIW strömt über die Drake Passage auch in den Atlantik und weiter in den Indischen Ozean) planen wir nun ein globales Vorgehen um in allen Ozeanen die Bildungsraten und Cant Speicherungen in den Zwischen- Tiefen- und Bodenwassermassen zu berechnen. Darüber hinaus wird der Zeitraum bis 2015 ausgedehnt, und wo immer die Datenlage es zulässt, Pentaden- anstatt Dekadenmittelwerte gebildet. Verwendet wird der aktualisierte GlODAPv2 Datensatz und eigene Daten.Die Berechnungen aus den Beobachtungen werden mit den Ergebnissen eines wirbelauflösenden globalen Ozeanmodells (1/10 Grad) kombiniert. Das POP Modell (Los Alamos Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program) mit eines horizontalen Auflösung von 0.1 Grad und 42 Tiefenstufen wird für die letzten 20 Jahre mit einem realistischen Forcing angetrieben und enthält außerdem die Freone als Tracer. Neben dem Vergleich mit einem klimatologischen Antrieb wird das Modell zur Weiterentwicklung der Tracer-Methode verwendet wir z.B. die Unsicherheit von zu wenig Datenpunkten und der Extrpolationsroutine auf die Bildungsraten / Cant Speicherungen. Ein weiterer wichtiger Punkt wird die Bestimmung der TTDs aus Lagrange Trajektorien und der Vergleich mit TTDs aus Tracermessungen sein, sowie die Untersuchung der Rolle der Wirbel, der Vermischung durch Wirbel und der vertikalen Vermischung.
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