Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
Die Effizienz des Beuteerwerbs bestimmt, ob Tiere erfolgreich Nachkommen großziehen und gleichzeitig ihre eigene Körperkondition erhalten und Prädation vermeiden können, ob sie also eine hohe Fitness (gemessen als lebenslangen Fortpflanzungserfolg) erreichen können. Die Effizienz des Beuteerwerbs könnte auch Auswirkungen auf die Dynamik von Tierpopulationen haben: an Orten mit geringen energetischen Kosten sollte ein Populationszuwachs zu verzeichnen sein, während erhöhte Nahrungssuchkosten eher zu einer Populationsabnahme führen sollten. Es gibt zahlreiche Studien zum Beuteerwerb von Tieren, die sich darauf konzentrieren, die räumliche Verteilung der Tiere zu beschreiben. Dagegen sind die Mechanismen, die zu dieser Verteilung führen, weitgehend noch nicht untersucht. Diese Lücke könnte durch den Einsatz neuer Methoden in der Analyse von Tierbewegungen geschlossen werden. Durch den Einsatz von dreidimensionalen Beschleunigungsmessern können Daten des Habitats mit Beschleunigungsdaten der Tierbewegungen verschnitten werden. Die energetische Kosten der Bewegungen im potentiellen Beuteraum werden berechnet, und in eine Energie-Landschaft (Energy landscape) übertragen. Ich schlage hier vor, diese neue Technologie und Methodik anzuwenden, um den Einfluss der Effizienz des Beuteerwerbs auf die Dynamik von Tierpopulationen zu untersuchen. Ich werde Energielandschaften für Eselspinguine als Modellart für einen Antarktischen Prädator modellieren, der sehr erfolgreich auf jüngste Umweltveränderungen reagiert hat. Ich werde untersuchen, wie sich die Effizienz des Beuteerwerbs zwischen Populationen im optimalen Habitat (Antarktische Halbinsel, Populationszuwachs) und suboptimalen Habitat (Falklandinseln, stark schwankende Populationen) unterscheidet. Durch den Vergleich der Nutzung von Energielandschaften werde ich untersuchen, welche Bedingungen zu hoher Körperkondition und Fortpflanzungserfolg der Eselspinguine führen und die erfolgreiche Expansion der Art in antarktischem Habitat ermöglichen. Die Ergebnisse sollen dazu beitragen, zu verstehen, wie Tiere auf veränderte Umweltbedingungen reagieren, wie sie derzeit durch die Einflüsse des Klimawandels entstehen.
Background: An increasing frequency of massive flooding along the lower Yangtse River in China ended in a disastrous catastrophe in summer 1998 leaving several thousand people homeless, more than 3.600 dead and causing enormous economic damage. Inappropriate land-use techniques and large scale timber felling in the water catchment of the upper Yangtse and its feeder streams were stated to be the main causes. Immediate timber cutting bans were imposed and investigations on land use patterns were initiated by the Chinese Government. The Institute for World Forestry of the Federal Research Centre for Forestry and Forest Products was approached by the Yunnan Academy of Forestry in Kunming to exchange experiences and to cooperate scientifically in the design and application of appropriate afforestation and silvicultural management techniques in the water catchment area of the Yangtse. This cooperation was initiated in 1999 and is based on formal agreements in the fields of agrarian research between the German and Chinese Governments. Objectives: The cooperation was in the first step focussing on the identification of factors which caused the enormous floodings. After their identification measures of prevention were determined and put into practice. In this context experiences made in past centuries in the alpine region of central Europe served as an incentive and example for similar environmental problems and solutions under comparable conditions. Relevant key questions of the cooperation project were: - Analysis of forest related factors influencing the recent floodings of the Yangtse, - Analysis and evaluation of silvicultural management experiences from central Europe for know-how transfer, - Evaluation of rehabilitation measures for successful application in Yunnan, - Dissemination of knowledge through vocational training. Results: - Frequent wild grazing of husbandry is a key factor for forest degeneration beyond unsustainable timber harvests, forest fires and insect calamities leading to increased water run-off in the mountainous region of Yunnan; - Browsing of cattle interrupts succession thus avoiding natural regeneration and leaving a logging ban ineffective; - Mountain pasture in the Alps had similar effects in the past in central Europe. The introduction of controlled grazing has led to an ecologically compatible coexistence of pasture and ecology. Close-to-nature forestry can have positive effects in this sensitive environment. - Afforestation with site adopted broadleaves and coniferous tree species was implemented on demonstration level using advanced techniques in Yunnan.
Deviant behaviour on various levels of the food supply chain may cause food risks. It entails irregular technological procedures which cause (increased probabilities of) adverse outcomes for buyers and consumers. Besides technological hazards and hitherto unknown health threats, moral hazard and malpractice in food businesses represent an additional source of risk which can be termed 'behavioural food risk'. From a regulatory perspective, adverse outcomes associated with deviance represent negative externalities that are caused by the breaking of rules designed to prevent them. From a rational choice perspective, the probability of malpractice increases with the benefits for its authors. It decreases with the probability of detection and resulting losses. It also decreases with bonds to social norms that protect producers from yielding to economic temptations. The design of mechanisms that reduce behavioural risks and prevent malpractice requires an understanding of why food businesses obey or do not obey the rules. This project aims to contribute to a better understanding of malpractice on the restaurant/retail level through comparative case studies and statistical analyses of food inspection and survey data. Accounting for the complexity of economic behaviour, we will not only look at economic incentives but consider all relevant behavioural determinants, including social context factors.
Der Ozean im Westpazifik ist mit Temperaturen von ganzjährig 30°C der wärmste Ozean der Welt. Im tropischen Westpazifik ist die Lufttemperatur der Grenzschicht weltweit am höchsten und die Ozonkonzentration am niedrigsten. Aufgrund der allgemeinen Advektion der Luftmassen in der unteren und mittleren Troposphäre aus dem Osten durch die Walker-Zirkulation über den Pazifik befindet sich die Luft über dem tropischen Westpazifik für längere Zeit in einer sauberen, warmen und feuchten Umgebung. Der Abbau von reaktiven Sauerstoff- und Ozonvorläufern wie NOx findet daher länger als anderswo in den Tropen, was zu sehr niedrigen Ozonkonzentrationen führte. Dies erhöht die Lebensdauer von kurzlebigen biogenen und anthropogenen Spurengasen. Darüber hinaus begünstigen hohe Meeresoberflächentemperaturen eine starke Konvektion im tropischen Westpazifik, was zu niedrigen Ozonmischungsverhältnissen in den konvektiven Ausflussgebieten in der oberen Troposphäre führen kann. Der Warmpool im Westpazifik ist auch eine wichtige Quellregion für stratosphärische Luft. Daher fallen die Region, in der die Lebensdauer kurzlebiger Spurengase erhöht ist, und die Quellregion der stratosphärischen Luft zusammen. Somit bestimmt die Zusammensetzung der troposphärischen Atmosphäre in dieser Region in hohem Maße auch die globale stratosphärische Zusammensetzung.Ozon ist aufgrund von Rückkopplungsprozessen zwischen Temperatur, Dynamik und Ozon ein wichtiges Spurengas in der Klimaforschung. Da der Warmpool im Westpazifik die Hauptquellenregion für stratosphärische Luft ist, ist die Kenntnis von Ozon und anderen kurzlebigen Spurengasen auch wichtig, um den Transport von Spurengasen in die Stratosphäre zu verstehen.Ziel unseres Projektes ist die Messung des Tagesgangs von Ozon und anderen Spurengasen mit Hilfe der hochauflösenden solaren Absorptions-FTIR-Spektroskopie. Die Messungen liefern die Gesamtsäulendichten von bis zu 20 Spurengasen. Für einige Spurengase erlaubt die Analyse der Spektrallinienform die Ableitung der Konzentrationsprofile in bis zu etwa vier atmosphärischen Höhenschichten. Ergänzt werden die Beobachtungen durch Ozonballonsondierungen, kontinuierliche Messungen der UV-Strahlung, und Modellrechnungen mit einem Chemie-Transport-Modell. Die Messungen sind für den Zeitraum August bis Oktober 2022 geplant, die Auswertung und Interpretation von November 2022 bis Januar 2023.
In recent years science has taken an increased interest in mineralization processes in tropical soils in particular under minimal tillage operations. Plant litter quality and management strongly affect mineralization-nitrification processes in soil and hence the fate of nitrogen in ecosystems and the environment. Plant secondary metabolites like lignin and polyphenols are poorly degradable and interact with proteins (protein binding capacity) and hence protect them from microbial attack. Nitrification, a microbiological process, directly and indirectly influences the efficiency of recovery of N in the vegetation as well as the loss of N (through denitrification and leaching) causing environmental pollution to water bodies and contributes to global warming (e.g. the greenhouse gas N2O is emitted as a by-product of nitrification and denitrification). Nitrifiers comprise a relatively narrow species diversity (at least as known to date) and are generally thought to be sensitive to low soil pH and stress. Despite these properties nitrification occurs in acid tropical soils with high levels of aluminium and manganese. Thus the main objective of the project will be the identification of micro-organisms and mechanisms responsible for mineralization-nitrification processes in acid tropical soils and the influence of long-term litter input of different chemical qualities and minimal tillage options. The project will include the use of stable isotopes (15N, 13C), mass spectrometry, gas chromatography (CO2, N2O), biochemical methods (PLFA) and molecular biology (16s rRNA., PCR, DGGE)
Most soils develop distinct soil architecture during pedogenesis and soil organic carbon (SOC) is sequestered within a hierarchical system of mineral-organic associations and aggregates. Permafrost soils store large amounts of carbon due to their permanently frozen subsoil and a lack of oxygen in the active layer, but they lack complex soil structure. With permafrost thaw more oxidative conditions and increasing soil temperature presumably enhance the build-up of more complex units of soil architecture and may counterbalance, at least partly, SOC mineralization. We aim to explore the development of mineral-organic associations and aggregates under different permafrost impact with respect to SOC stabilization. This information will be linked to environmental control factors relevant for SOC turnover at the pedon and stand scale to bridge processes occurring at the aggregate scale to larger spatial dimensions. We will combine in situ spectroscopic techniques with fractionation approaches and identify mechanisms relevant for SOC turnover at different scales by multivariate statistics and variogram analyses. From this we expect a deeper knowledge about soil architecture formation in the transition of permafrost soils to terrestrial soils and a scale-spanning mechanistic understanding of SOC cycling in permafrost regions.
The project aims at achieving a better understanding of the processes that drive or limit the response of grassland systems in a world of increasing atmospheric pCO2. We will test the hypothesis that the previously shown increase in below-ground allocation of C under elevated pCO2 provides the necessary energy excess and will stimulate free-living N2 fixers in a low N grassland environment. The project thus aims at assessing the occurrence and importance of free-living N2 fixers under elevated pCO2 and identify the associated microbial communities involved in order to better understand ecosystems response and sustainability of grassland systems. This project had the last opportunity to obtain soil samples from a grassland ecosystem adapted to long-term (10 year) elevated atmospheric pCO2 as the Swiss FACE experiment. The project aims to identify the relevant components of free-living diazotrophs of the microbial community using 15N stable isotope - DNA probing.
Increasing population pressure is leading to unsustainable land use in North Vietnamese highlands and destruction of natural habitats. The resulting loss of biodiversity includes plant genetic resources - both wild (= non-cultivated) species and cultivated landraces - adapted to local conditions, and local knowledge concerning the plants. A particularly important group among endangered plants are the legumes (1) because Southeast Asia is a major centre of genetic diversity for this family, and (2) because the potential contribution of legumes to sustainable land use is, due to their multifunctionality (e.g., soil improvement, human and livestock nutrition), especially high. The project aims to contribute to the conservation and sustainable use of genetic resources of legumes with an integrated approach wherein a series of components are combined: (1) A participatory, indigenous knowledge survey complemented by information from the literature; (2) germplasm collection missions (for ex situ conservation) complemented by field evaluation and seed increase; (3) genetic diversity analysis of selected material by molecular markers; and (4) GIS based analysis of generated data to identify areas of particular genetic diversity as a basis for land area planning and in situ preservation recommendations. Project results are expected to be also applicable to similar highlands in Southeast Asia.
The sorption of anions in geotechnical multibarrier systems of planned high level waste repositories (HLWR) and of non-ionic and organic pollutants in conventional waste disposals are in the center of recent research. In aquatic systems, persistent radionuclides such as 79Se, 99Tc, 129I exist in a form of anions. There is strongly increasing need to find materials with high sorption capacities for such pollutants. Specific requirements on barrier materials are long-term stability of adsorbent under various conditions such as T > 100 C, varying hydrostatic pressure, and the presence of competing ions. Organo-clays are capable to sorb high amounts of cations, anions and non-polar molecules simultaneously having selectivity for certain ions. This project is proposed to improve the understanding of sorption and desorption processes in organo-clays. Additionally, the modification of material properties under varying chemical and thermal conditions will be determined by performing diffusion and advection experiments. Changes by sorption and diffusion will be analyzed by determining surface charge and contact angles. Molecular simulations on models of organo-clays will be conducted in an accord with experiments with aim to understand and analyze experimental results. The computational part of the project will profit from the collaboration of German partner with the group in Vienna, which has a long standing experience in a modeling of clay minerals.
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