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The aim of IMPRINTS is to contribute to reduce loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management for Flash Flood and Debris Flow (FF/DF) generating events, as well as to contribute to sustainable development through reducing damages to the environment. To achieve this ultimate objective the project is oriented to produce methods and tools to be used by emergency agencies and utility companies responsible for the management of FF/DF risks and associated effects. Impacts of future changes, including climatic, land use and socioeconomic will be analyzed in order to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures. Specifically, the consortium will develop an integrated probabilistic forecasting FF/ DF system as well as a probabilistic early warning and a rule-based probabilistic forecasting system adapted to the operational use by practitioners. These systems will be tested on five selected flash flood prone areas, two located in mountainous catchments in the Alps, and three in Mediterranean catchments. The IMPRINTS practitioner partners, risk management authorities and utility company managers in duty of emergency management in these areas, will supervise these tests. The development of such systems will be carried out using and capitalizing the results of previous and ongoing research on FF/DF forecasting and warning systems, in which several of the partners have played a prominent role. One major result of the project will be a operational prototype including the tools and methodologies developed under the project. This prototype will be designed under the premise of its ultimate commercialization and use worldwide. The consortium, covering all the actors involved in the complex chain of FF & DF forecasting, has been carefully selected to ensure the achievement of this. Specific actions to exploit and protect the results and the intellectual property of the partners have been also defined.
Die hohen Ansprüche an die Qualität von Obst und Gemüse führen zu einer besonders geringen Tole-ranz für Beeinträchtigungen durch Schädlinge. Deshalb muss deren wirkungsvolle und umweltschonende Regulierung auch in Zukunft garantiert sein, selbst unter dem Einfluss des Klimawandels und beim Auftreten neuer invasiver Arten. Als Grundlage für die Überwachung und für neue Integrierte Bekämpfungsstrategien liefert das Tätigkeitsfeld Kenntnisse über die Biologie von Schädlingen (Insekten, Milben) und Nützlingen in den Agrarökosystemen des Obstbaus und des Freilandgemüsebaus. Es stellt Phänologiemodelle und Entscheidungshilfesysteme (Decision support systems DSS) für die Praxis und für die vorausschauende Beurteilung von Folgen des Klimawandels bereit, entwickelt biologische und biotechnische Pflanzenschutzmassnahmen und stellt die Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen sicher. Dies Arbeiten leisten signifikante Beiträge zu den thematischen Schwerpunkten 'Ökologische Intensivierung' sowie 'Klimaschutz und Anpassung an Klimawandel'. Die Leistungen erfolgen schwerpunktmässig im Bereich des Kernthemas 'Verbesserung der Pflanzenproduktion, insbesondere unter Einbezug von Pflanzenschutz, Sorten und Saat- und Pflanzgut'. In diesem Projekt werden Leistungen bei der Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen zur Verfügung gestellt (in Zusammenarbeit mit FB 12 Diagnostik und Risikobeurteilung Pflanzenschutz) und wissenschaftliche Unterstützung für die kantonalen Fachstellen geboten.
Objective: Problem to be solved: When and how did forest trees have come to occupy their present range in Europe, after the last ice-age, when re-immigrating from their refugia? And what have been the consequences of these huge population movements on their levels of genetic diversity and their potential to cope to new climatic challenges? Since several decades, paleobotanists have attempted to understand the origin and migrations of our forest trees, using mostly fossil pollen remains. However, it is not always possible to distinguish the pollen of related tree species, and most of the migration routes inferred from these records remain hypothetical. Recently, the development of DNA techniques has shed new light on the re-immigration of trees. So far, these studies have been based on the sampling of existing tree populations only. But more direct historical evidence could be provided by molecular investigations of ancient tree remains excavated by the paleobotanists, provided that appropriate laboratory methods could be developed. Scientific objectives and approaches: FOSSILVA aims at improving our understanding of the origin of the major European tree species. It associates geneticists and palaeoecologists in order to confront both approaches and to develop a new one, the palaeogenetic exploration of tree remains. Different types of plant remains (such as wood, macrofossils, pollen) are being tested for their ability to yield DNA suitable for genetic investigations. Fossil samples are studied in parallel with DNA isolated from living trees, to identify the relationships between modern tree populations and their putative ancestors, and check for possible human disturbances. The study area of the project is restricted to south western and western Europe, and focuses on six tree species. These include two broad-leaved species (beech and oaks) and four conifers (two species of pines, fir and spruce). These trees were selected for several reasons: their present day genetic diversity has already been explored, hypotheses on their history exist but need to be validated, and they are of major economical and ecological importance. Part of the project consists in the production of a molecular atlas for the taxonomic identification of European woody plants; it should allow the identification of wood remains from minute amounts of material. Another major goal is the development of 'clean' strategies that allow to analyse very small amounts of DNA, while avoiding contamination in the field and in the lab. New migration maps of these species are also being constructed or updated based on the traditional fossil pollen data, complemented by the more scattered information provided by larger fossils (leaves, fruits, wood...). Prime Contractor: Universite de droit d'economie et des sciences d'aix Marseille, institut mediterraneen d'ecologie et de paleoecologie; Marseille.
Objective/Problems to be solved: If sustainable management and restoration of biodiversity is to be successful, it is important to have cost-effective methods for reliable large-scale monitoring of biodiversity, to be able to assess the current state of biodiversity, determine trends and patterns and to evaluate the effectiveness of restoration measures. In addition, there is an urgent need for tools to predict the effects of human activity and restoration measures on the biodiversity of target ecosystems. The proposed project aims at providing the necessary methodologies and tools (indices, indicator species lists, predictive mathematical models) for monitoring biodiversity and assessing human impact on biodiversity in a specific type of habitat that is important in many areas of Europe: mesotrophic to eutrophic shallow lakes that are subject to natural or cultural eutrophication. Shallow lakes are abundant in Europe, are ecologically and economically very important, and are subject to many threats. Scientific objectives and approach: The objectives of BIOMAN are (1) to develop reliable and cost-effective indices for measuring overall biodiversity in the water column of shallow water bodies; (2) to develop mathematical tools that allow prediction of the effects of human impact on biodiversity in shallow waters, including the prediction of the response to restoration measures; (3) to compile a database on the current state of biodiversity in a representative sample of European shallow bodies, covering the classical food web (fish, zooplankton, phytoplankton) as well as the microbial loop (bacterioplankton and heterotrophic protists), and also covering genetic diversity of zooplankton and diversity as measured through the egg bank; and (4) to develop a reliable method to evaluate the success of restoration measures. In a large-scale field survey covering 96 shallow standing waters along a north-south gradient in Europe, we focus on organisms occurring in the water column, belonging to the microbial loop (bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, ciliates) and the classical food web (phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish). The ponds and lakes studied differ widely in the degree of human impact (relatively pristine and successfully restored habitats versus heavily impacted ones), degree of isolation, structural diversity, nutrient loading and size. We compare different measures of biodiversity in terms of the indices used (e.g. Hill numbers), the functional resolution (trophic level), the type of biodiversity measured (taxon diversity, genetic diversity within taxa) and the approach used for taxon delimitation (morphological or genetic criteria)... Prime Contractor: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Departement Biologie, Faculteit Wetenschappen, Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology; Leuven/Belgium.
Objective/Problems to be solved: Seasonal prediction of climate has shown promise in recent years, in particular for the tropics (ENSO), but also for the extratropics and Europe, with potential important socio-economic benefits. There is a need to further develop this capability and to involve user communities to maximize benefits. Scientific objectives and approach: The overall objective is the development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual climate prediction, to integrate specific user application models and to assess the economic value of the system. Six global coupled ocean-atmosphere models developed at different institutes in Europe will be installed on a common supercomputer. A set of multi-model ensemble hindcasts will be produced using reanalysis data for initialisation and validation. By including independent models in the ensemble, the impact of model uncertainty on seasonal predictions can be quantified. The validation will include an assessment of the predictability of El Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and seasonal weather elements over Europe. The project calls for about 30 years of ensemble integration using ERA-40 data (with existing ERA-15 data as a back up). Each integration will be 6 months long, and each model will be used to provide model-ensembles. Empirical correction techniques will be used to provide model-dependent bias corrected data. Thorough evaluation of the meteorological and oceanographic skill of the hindcasts, using probabilistic validation tools, will be made. Evaluation of the predictability of El Nino, the NAO and seasonal weather elements over Europe and tropical Africa will be undertaken. Data from the hindcasts will be made available to the research, user, and forecasting community. A number of sensitivity studies will be undertaken and the importance of using coupled models, and of using ocean and satellite altimeter data will be evaluated. Two methods for providing downscaled products will be assessed. Data from the hindcasts will be input into quantitative user application models for predicting probability distributions of crop yield over Europe, and incidence of disease in the tropical Africa. This will be used for a quantitative assessment of the value of the forecast system in the two sectors. Expected impacts: The project paves the way for a fully operational seasonal climate prediction system, which would give important benefits for almost every sector of society in Europe and in regions of European interests. Prime Contractor: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); Reading.
Objective: Problems to be solved: There are still discrepancies between model prediction and observations of the year- round stratospheric ozone decline in mid and high latitudes. In summer, current models still severely overestimate ozone in the polar regions, and this appears as a major deficiency in our ability to model the complete ozone seasonal cycle. The springtime mid-latitude ozone depletion has not been satisfactorily modelled in a quantitative manner. This proposal hence aims at improving our understanding and modelling of ozone loss processes throughout spring and summer, in the northern mid and high latitudes. Scientific objectives and approach: The main scientific objective is to acquire a quantitative understanding of: (i) the mid-latitude ozone depletion accompanying the breakdown of the wintertime polar vortex, especially over Europe, and ii) the Arctic summer ozone deficit and its linkage to midlatitudes. The project relies on using an integrated approach combining ground-based and balloon-borne measurements, global satellite observations, as well as advanced chemical/dynamical modelling and data assimilation. Measurements of ozone, inert gases, or species actively involved in ozone chemistry, are made at three different stations in the Arctic throughout spring and summer. Observational techniques comprise ground-based lidar and infrared spectroscopic measurements, and light-weight balloon-borne instrumentation. Satellite observations complement these local, ground-based and in-situ measurements by allowing to characterise the global, evolving three-dimensional ozone distribution. The satellite data are globally integrated into a transport model through data assimilation. State-of-the-art numerical models are used to investigate the interaction of chemistry and mixing in the spring and summer stratosphere. These models are used to diagnose the ozone loss mechanisms and the overall transport of trace species in spring and summer. Correlative studies of the abundance of various trace species, either modelled or measured, allow to disentangle the effect of mixing from chemical sources and sinks. Expected impacts: The information to be provided by the field campaigns and model studies during SAMMOA will improve the quantification of ozone loss in the stratosphere, a key science priority in support of the Montreal protocol. This project will particularly impact on understanding of ozone depletion in spring and summer, when it is most harmful. It is indeed in the summertime, that human exposure to UV radiation is largest in middle latitudes. Modelling improvements shall result in better assessment and prediction of the ozone trend and recovery in support of regulatory protocols. Prime Contractor: Norwegian Institute for Air Research; Kjeller.
Objective/Problems to be solved: Ozone in the upper troposphere is an important greenhouse gas which is formed mainly by photolytic degradation of NOx. Between 40 and 50A degree N, some 40 per cent of upper tropospheric NOx over Europe is a result of transport from the polluted boundary layer, with aircraft emissions contributing a further 30 per cent. This program of research will allow us to estimate the influence of ubiquitous cirrus ice particles on upper-tropospheric oxidant cycles, and ozone concentrations. The resulting advancement in understanding of the photochemistry of this sensitive part of the atmosphere will enable improved assessment and control of ground and aircraft emissions that impact on upper-tropospheric ozone concentrations and thus the atmospheric radiation budget. The objectives of this proposal are consistent with contents of the Kyoto protocol and the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention, which aim to better control the chemical species that have an impact on air quality and climate. It also has direct bearing on the policies of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) which is responsible for the implementation of standards to regulate international air traffic. Scientific Objectives and approach: This is a proposal of laboratory based research designed to enhance our understanding of the factors that influence the seasonal and latitudinal variability of ozone in the upper troposphere, and in particular the extent to which the natural chemistry of the upper troposphere is being impacted by growing atmospheric pollution. This proposal focuses on the role of cirrus ice in modifying the chemical composition of the upper troposphere, and its response to pollutant inputs. The chosen approach is to combine a number of different and complementary techniques to examine various aspects of the heterogeneous reactivity of ice. The laboratory experiments will employ both gas-phase analysis, and surface sensitive methods to examine aspects of ice reactivity towards members of the NOy family, oxidised organic species, halogen containing compounds and members of the HOy family and ozone. Expected Impacts: CUT-ICE is a laboratory based proposal, and its major deliverable is a compiled and assessed data base of kinetic and mechanistic information that describes the interaction of atmospheric trace gases with ice surfaces. Due to present lack of suitable laboratory data, models cannot properly treat trace-gas/ice interactions. The implementation of the laboratory data from CUT-ICE will result in a significant advancement in the accuracy and thus the predictive capabilities of these models, enabling greatly improved assessment of e.g. the role of both aircraft and ground based emissions in modifying the ozone concentrations of the upper troposphere, and its influence on climate.
Objective: Problems to be solved: Reliable predictions of climatic change are impossible unless the magnitude and distribution of the anthropogenic perturbations of the climate can be quantified. The radiative effects of greenhouse gases are well understood; but the indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols, that operate by altering cloud properties, are potentially significant and are very uncertain. Scientific objectives and approach: The project aims to address these problems directly, using the unrivalled data sets of co-located observations of aerosols, in cloud properties and radiative fluxes obtained during the ACE-2 field campaign. The measurements will be compared with cloud properties and radiative fluxes simulated by several climate models, with the objective of rigorously assessing the models and developing and testing more realistic schemes for representing aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in climate models. The results of the ACE-2 Cloudy-column experiment will be examined and extended to the scales that are significant for GCM parameterizations, namely 100 km in space and 1/2 hour in time. The quality of the closure, that has been evaluated at the scale of the physical processes, will be evaluated at the GCM scale. The assessment will be focused on the four processes which are identified as the most important for the aerosol indirect effect (AIE), namely aerosol activation, microphysics/radiation interaction, drizzle formation and feedback, and cloud dynamics and homogeneity. The variables used for describing the physical processes will be examined in term of large scale statistics and the corresponding large scale variables will be defined. Special attention will be given to non-linear processes, which cannot be parameterized with the mean value and the standard deviation of the variables, but rather by tail of the distributions, such as vertical velocity for the CCN activation process or droplet concentration for the onset of precipitation. Various solutions will be proposed for the modellers to determine which ones are predictable. The values of these large scale variables will be calculated for each case study. Novel parameterizations based on large scale variables will be developed and tested versus the observations. The results of the data analysis, of satellite image processing and initialization fields extracted from the ECMWF analysis will be merged to form the data set for the models. Expected impacts: The results will contribute to narrowing the large range of uncertainly in model simulations of the indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols, thereby facilitating more reliable predictions of climatic change. Prime Contractor: Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques; Toulouse.
Objective: Problems to be solved: Aromatic compounds are emitted to the atmosphere from transport and industrial sources and oxidised in the troposphere. This process has a substantial impact on the formation of ozone and of photochemical smog on a European scale, and on the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere and hence on global warming. The oxidation of aromatic compounds also leads to the formation of secondary aerosols, with impacts on health and on climate. A quantitative understanding of the chemical mechanisms for oxidation of the major aromatic compounds is needed for the construction of models for both predictive and legislative applications and for the assessment of environmental impact. Recent laboratory studies have demonstrated considerable uncertainties in our present understanding of the atmospheric oxidation of aromatics and have seriously questioned our ability to assess the atmospheric impact of aromatic compounds. The major aim of the project is a detailed laboratory investigation of the mechanism and the construction and application of a model, based on the experimental results, to assess the atmospheric impact of aromatic emissions on European and global scales. Scientific objectives and approach. The project consists of four main components: In the laboratory experiments, laser flash photolysis is used to probe the chemistry of the early stages of the oxidation process, using absorption spectroscopy. A key element is the behaviour of adducts formed by the addition of the hydroxyl radical to the aromatic compounds. The subsequent chemistry is probed using photochemical reactor studies, coupled with a range of analytical techniques, such as Fourier transform infra red spectroscopy and gas chromatography. A key component of the strategy is the synthesis of important intermediates to test the hypotheses that are developed. The overall description of the oxidation of the major volatile organic compounds emitted to the atmosphere is contained in a master chemical mechanisms (MCM). The experimental results allow revision of the aromatic component of the MCM, which is then used to design experiments to test the proposed mechanisms. These experiments are conducted in the European Photochemical Reactor (EUPHORE) at Valencia in Spain. The EUPHORE experiments are conducted under conditions close to those pertaining in the atmosphere and provide a credible test of the MCM and hence of the laboratory experiments. Crucial experiments include the yield of ozone in aromatic oxidation, but the extensive instrumentation in EUPHORE permits a wide range of detailed experimental checks on the MCM. In addition, other experiments allow investigation of the formation of secondary organic aerosol. Prime Contractor: University of Leeds, School of Chemistry; Leeds.
Objective/Problems to be solved: Recent statistical studies of observational records suggest that variation in solar activity play a significant part in natural climate variability but a physical mechanism to account for the apparent solar effects has not been fully developed. Through enhancement of solar UV, and increased ozone concentrations, it is possible that stratospheric processes may excite a response in the climate of the lower atmosphere. Scientific objectives and approach: The objectives of the project are to assess the effects of solar variability on climate, including regional and seasonal effects. A co-ordinated programme of numerical modelling and data analysis will be conducted. The modelling studies will incorporate series of experiments with models of various types designed to investigate different aspects of the interaction of solar radiation with the chemical and dynamical structure of the lower and middle atmosphere. These will include the first ever simulations of the effect of variations in solar spectral irradiance, on both 27-day and 11-year time scales, on stratospheric ozone using general circulation models (GCMs) with coupled stratospheric chemistry. GCMs will also be used to study links between the stratosphere and tropospheric climate including the effects of solar-induced changes in stratospheric climate on wave propagation and how this is modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The modulation of sea surfarce temperatures by solar variations and the effect on climate will be studied using a GCM with a coupled ocean in the context of other GCM climate simulations. Chemical transport models will allow detailed investigations of solar impact on stratospheric chemistry and 3D dynamical model of the middle atmosphere will be used to investigate the internal variability of the stratosphere, its response to solar variability and how this is impacted by the QBO. The data studies will involve the development of a unified method for the analysis of global three-dimensional fields of temperature and ozone in the context of the response of these fields to other factors including the QBO and volcanic eruptions. Comparison of the results of the modelling and data studies will be made to validate the models and the model results will then be analysed to elucidate details of the mechanisms whereby solar variability affects climate. The results will also be used to calculate solar radiative forcing parameters, taking proper account of the response of stratospheric ozone, and to estimate the regional impacts of solar variability. Expected impacts: By providing new assessment of the solar radiative forcing of climate and assessment, of impacts of solar variability on seasonal and regional climate and on surface UV radiation important input to international detection/attribution studies can be expected. Prime Contractor: Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Department of Physics; London.
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