Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
Recent and predicted increases in extremely dry and hot summers emphasise the need for silvicultural approaches to increase the drought tolerance of existing forests in the short-term, before adaptation through species changes may be possible. We aim to investigate whether resistance during droughts, as well as the recovery following drought events (resilience), can be increased by allocating more growing space to individual trees through thinning. Thinning increases access of promoted trees to soil stored water, as long as this is available. However, these trees may also be disadvantaged through a higher transpirational surface, or the increased neighbourhood competition by ground vegetation. To assess whether trees with different growing space differ in drought tolerance, tree discs and cores from thinning experiments of Pinus sylvestris and Pseudotsuga menziesii stands will be used to examine transpirational stress and growth reduction during previous droughts as well as their subsequent recovery. Dendroecology and stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen in tree-rings will be used to quantify how assimilation rate and stomatal conductance were altered through thinning. The results will provide crucial information for the development of short-term silvicultural adaptation strategies to adapt forest ecosystems to climate change. In addition, this study will improve our understanding of the relationship between resistance and resilience of trees in relation to extreme stress events.
The natural capital of forests consists to a great extend of the forests environmental functions for human well-being, which not only include goods and services (source and sink functions) but also include life-support functions that reflect ecosystem performance (ecosystem functioning). Shifting the management approach from a traditional one to one that is more aware of the ecosystem complexity, the idea of 'ecosystem functioning is appearing to tackle gradual declines of ecosystem functions. Within CBDs framework, the Ecosystem Approach has been introduced on account of the necessity for open decision making with strong links between all stakeholders and the latest scientific knowledge due to uncertainty and unpredictability in nature. The Ecosystem Approach is still in need of further elaboration, even though as a concept Ecosystem Approach has been widely accepted. To aim forest enhancement, this approach has been regarded as the most feasible concept for the study area, the Bengawan Solo River Basin - Java, Indonesia. Therefore the principles and operational guidelines will be used to analyse and evaluate the current forest management in those areas of the Bengawan Solo River Basin, in which ecosystem function is the basis for forest development area. This research focuses on ecological functions of forests at various levels of ecosystem management planning, from the forestry sectors point of view.
In today's biodiversity crisis, there is an urgent need to monitor terrestrial and aquatic species in their natural habitats, especially those that may be endangered, invasive or elusive. Traditional species observation methods, based on acoustic or observational surveys are inefficient, costly and time consuming. On the other hand, DNA is continuously deposited in the environment from natural processes and this environmental DNA (eDNA) allows us to detect species and reconstruct their communities with a high level of sensitivity. These data can be used to obtain occurrence records and to collect more population information in field. Crucially, these data are necessary to inform management agencies about the current state of our biodiversity, and are especially urgent for species that are currently data deficient. The aims of this study are to firstly identify occurrence records from diverse sources (databases, literature) and generate a database of distributional data for species of crustacean and mollusks that are data deficient in Sweden. Secondly, we aim to detect threatened species in Swedish marine, freshwater and terrestrial habitats using novel genomic methods (DNA metabarcoding, ddPCR). Finally, based on the new data, we will run species distribution and population models, to improve information on geographic range and population status for threatened invertebrates. The results will be integrated into current monitoring programmes (e.g. red-listing) and action plans.
Water is an intrinsic component of ecosystems acting as a key agent of lateral transport for particulate and dissolved nutrients, forcing energy transfers, triggering erosion, and driving biodiversity patterns. Given the drastic impact of land use and climate change on any of these components and the vulnerability of Ecuadorian ecosystems with regard to this global change, indicators are required that not merely describe the structural condition of ecosystems, but rather capture the functional relations and processes. This project aims at investigating a set of such functional indicators from the fields of hydrology and biogeochemistry. In particular we will investigate (1) flow regime and timing, (2) nutrient cycling and flux rates, and (3) sediment fluxes as likely indicators. For assessing flow regime and timing we will concentrate on studying stable water isotopes to estimate mean transit time distributions that are likely to be impacted by changes in rainfall patterns and land use. Hysteresis loops of nitrate concentrations and calculated flux rates will be used as functional indicators for nutrient fluxes, most likely to be altered by changes in temperature as well as by land use and management. Finally, sediment fluxes will be measured to indicate surface runoff contribution to total discharge, mainly influenced by intensity of rainfall as well as land use. Monitoring of (1) will be based on intensive sampling campaigns of stable water isotopes in stream water and precipitation, while for (2) and (3) we plan to install automatic, high temporal-resolution field analytical instruments. Based on the data obtained by this intensive, bust cost effective monitoring, we will develop the functional indicators. This also provides a solid database for process-based model development. Models that are able to simulate these indicators are needed to enable projections into the future and to investigate the resilience of Ecuadorian landscape to global change. For the intended model set up we will couple the Catchment Modeling Framework, the biogeochemical LandscapeDNDC model and semi-empirical models for aquatic diversity. Global change scenarios will then be analyzed to capture the likely reaction of functional indicators. Finally, we will contribute to the written guidelines for developing a comprehensive monitoring program for biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Right from the beginning we will cooperate with four SENESCYT companion projects and three local non-university partners to ensure that the developed monitoring program will be appreciated by locals and stakeholders. Monitoring and modelling will focus on all three research areas in the Páramo (Cajas National Park), the dry forest (Reserva Laipuna) and the tropical montane cloud forest (Reserva Biologica San Francisco).
Der Umgang mit Nichtlinearitäten und die Frage des Upscaling stellen eine der größten Herausforderungen für technische und umweltrelevante Anwendungen im Gebiet der Strömungs- und Transportphänomene in porösen Medien dar. Eine Vielzahl hierarchischer (räumlicher und zeitlicher) Skalen können in porösen Medien identifiziert werden, die im Allgemeinen mit deren Heterogenitätsstrukturen zusammenhängen. Strömungs- und Transportphänomene können von gekoppelten Mechanismen verursacht oder beeinflusst werden, die von einem nichtlinearen Zusammenspiel von physikalischen, (geo-)chemischen und/oder biologischen Prozessen herrühren. Um Probleme auf diesem Feld sinnvoll angehen zu können, ist eine interdisziplinäre Umgebung unerlässlich. Die beteiligten Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler zeichnen sich in den unterschiedlichsten Arbeitsgebieten aus: angewandte Mathematik, Umwelt- und Bauingenieurwesen, Geowissenschaften und Erdölingenieurwissenschaften. Die gemeinsamen niederländisch-deutschen Forschungsprojekte werden an der TU Delft, der TU Eindhoven, der Universität Utrecht und der Universität Stuttgart durchgeführt. Grundlagenforschung, so wie etwa die Anwendung stochastischer Modelle und die Entwicklung effizienter numerischer Methoden, soll mit angewandter Forschung auf Feldern wie der Optimierung von Brennstoffzellen, Sequestrierung von CO2 oder der Vorhersage von Hangrutschungen verbunden werden. Als mögliche weiterführende Themen werden auch Anwendungen in der Papierherstellung oder der Biomechanik angestrebt. Ein zentraler Aspekt des Internationalen Graduiertenkollegs ist ein Lehrprogramm, das die Unterstützung von Lehre und Forschung von jungen Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftlern zum Ziel hat. Dies soll erreicht werden, indem anspruchsvolle Kurse angeboten werden, die typischerweise die Fragestellungen der jungen Wissenschaftler abdecken. Außerdem soll alle vier Wochen via Videokonferenz ein Graduiertenseminar zur Diskussion von Forschungsergebnissen stattfinden. Es soll weiterhin ein Austauschprogramm geben, das Doktorandinnen und Doktoranden erlaubt, sechs bis neun Monate im Partnerland zu verbringen. Das somit entstehende internationale und interdisziplinäre Umfeld wird es Doktorandinnen und Doktoranden ermöglichen, effizient Spitzenforschung auf dem Feld der Nichtlinearitäten und des Upscaling im Untergrund durchzuführen.
During microbial turnover of organic chemicals in soil, non-extractable residues (NER) are formed frequently. Studies on NER formation usually performed with radioisotope labelled tracer compounds are limited to localisation and quantitative analyses but their chemical composition is left unknown. Recently, we could show for 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and ibuprofen that during microbial turnover in soil nearly all NER were derived from microbial biomass, since degrading bacteria use the pollutant carbon for their biomass synthesis. Their cell debris is subsequently stabilised within soil organic matter (SOM) forming biogenic NER (bioNER). It is still unknown whether bioNER are also formed during biodegradation of other, structurally different compound classes of organic contaminants. Therefore, agricultural soil will be incubated with labelled compounds of five classes of commonly used and emerging pesticides: organophosphate, phenylurea, triazinone, benzothiadiazine and aryloxyphenoxypropionic acid. The fate of the label will be monitored in both living and non-living SOM pools and the formation of bioNER will be quantified for each compound over extended periods of time. In addition, soil samples from long-term lysimeter studies with 14C-labelled pesticide residues (e.g. triazine, benzothiazole and phenoxypropionic acid group) will be also analysed for bioNER formation. The results will be summarised to identify the metabolic conditions of microorganisms needed for bioNER formation and to develop an extended concept of risk assessment including bioNER formation in soils.
Der schnelle Fortschritt der elektronischen Geräte erhöht die Nachfrage nach verbesserten Li-Ionen Batterien. Kommerziell erhältliche Li-Zellen nutzen meist Lithiumkobaltoxid für die positive Elektrode. Doch gerade dieses Material ist ein Hindernis für eine weitere Optimierung, insbesondere für eine Kostensenkung. Vor allem für größere Anwendungen wie Hybrid- oder Elektrofahrzeuge müssen alternative Materialen erforscht werden, die billiger, sicherer und umweltverträglicher sind. Daher wird im ISEA derzeit ein neues Forschungsprojekt ins Leben gerufen und die dafür benötigte Infrastruktur geschaffen. Die Forschung wird sich auf die Untersuchung geeigneter Übergangsmetalloxide und Polyanionen konzentrieren, die besonders gut zur Einlagerung von Li-Ionen geeignet sind. Es werden neue Herstellungsverfahren unter Verwendung wässriger Precurser-Substanzen untersucht, die Verbindungen mit überlegenen Eigenschaften erzeugen und außerdem leicht an eine Massenproduktion angepasst werden können. Ziel der Arbeiten ist, preisgünstiges Elektrodenmaterial zu entwickeln, das eine spezifische Energie von über 200 Wh/kg und eine Leistungsdichte von 400 W/kg aufweist. Außerdem werden Arbeiten im Bereich der physikalisch-chemischen Charakterisierung der neuen Materialien stattfinden sowie elektrochemische Analysen der gesamten Zellen- und Batteriesysteme durchgeführt. Das elektrodynamische Verhalten der neuen Zellen wird u. a. mit Hilfe der elektrochemischen Impedanzspektroskopie analysiert, um präzise und zuverlässige Algorithmen für ein späteres Batteriemonitoring im realen Betrieb zu finden.
High-quality near-real time Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) and its prediction for the next hours (Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting, QPN) is of high importance for many applications in meteorology, hydrology, agriculture, construction, water and sewer system management. Especially for the prediction of floods in small to meso-scale catchments and of intense precipitation over cities timely, the value of high-resolution, and high-quality QPE/QPN cannot be overrated. Polarimetric weather radars provide the undisputed core information for QPE/QPN due to their area-covering and high-resolution observations, which allow estimating precipitation intensity, hydrometeor types, and wind. Despite extensive investments in such weather radars, QPE is still based primarily on rain gauge measurements since more than 100 years and no operational flood forecasting system actually dares to employ radar observations for QPE. RealPEP will advance QPE/QPN to a stage, that it verifiably outperforms rain gauge observations when employed for flood predictions in small to medium-sized catchments. To this goal state-of-the?art radar polarimetry will be sided with attenuation estimates from commercial microwave link networks for QPE improvement, and information on convection initiation and evolution from satellites and lightning counts from surface networks will be exploited to improve QPN. With increasing forecast horizons the predictive power of observation-based nowcasting quickly deteriorates and is outperformed by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) based on data assimilation, which fails, however, for the first hours due to the lead time required for model integration and spin-up. Thus, RealPEP will merge observation-based QPN with NWP towards seamless prediction in order to provide optimal forecasts from the time of observation to days ahead. Despite recent advances in simulating surface and sub-surface hydrology with distributed, physicsbased models, hydrologic components for operational flood prediction are still conceptual, need calibration, and are unable to objectively digest observational information on the state of the catchments. RealPEP will prove that in combination with advanced QPE/QPN physics-based hydrological models sided with assimilation of catchment state observations will outperform traditional flood forecasting in small to meso-scale catchments.
In diesem Heft sind die wichtigsten Aspekte zu oberflächennahen Rohstoffen zusammengestellt: - Fördermengen, Arbeitsplätze, wirtschaftliche Bedeutung - Verteilung der Vorkommen im Land - Standortgebundenheit - Raumnutzungskonflikte - Transportkostenempfindlichkeit - Marine Lagerstätten - Zuständigkeiten in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Bergrecht - Gesetzlicher Auftrag der Raumordnung und Landesplanung - Planerische Umsetzung - Ausgleich der Nutzungskonflikte - Bedarfsprognose - Reichweite der in der Regionalen Raumordnungsprogrammen sichergestellten Flächen - Rekultivierung - Wiedernutzbarmachung
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