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Between Path Dependence and Path Creation: The Impact of Farmers' Behavior and Policies on Structural Change in Agriculture

Farm structures are often characterized by regional heterogeneity, agglomeration effects, sub-optimal farm sizes and income disparities. The main objective of this study is to analyze whether this is a result of path dependent structural change, what the determinants of path dependence are, and how it may be overcome. The focus is on the German dairy sector which has been highly regulated and subsidized in the past and faces severe structural deficits. The future of this sector in the process of an ongoing liberalization will be analyzed by applying theoretical concepts of path dependence and path breaking. In these regards, key issues are the actual situation, technological and market trends as well as agricultural policies. The methodology will be based on a participative use of the agent-based model AgriPoliS and participatory laboratory experiments. On the one hand, AgriPoliS will be tested as a tool for stakeholder oriented analysis of mechanisms, trends and policy effects. This part aims to analyze whether and how path dependence of structural change can be overcome on a sector level. In a second part, AgriPoliS will be extended such that human players (farmers, students) can take over the role of agents in the model. This part aims to compare human agents with computer agents in order to overcome single farm path dependence.

Mean daily soil moisture content in layer 1 measured below mixed forest at Britz Station, North-east of Berlin, Central Europe

Effects of water content, input of roots and dissolved organic matter and spatial inaccessibility on C turnover & determination of the spatial variability of subsoil properties

It is well established that reduced supply of fresh organic matter, interactions of organic matter with mineral phases and spatial inaccessibility affect C stocks in subsoils. However, quantitative information required for a better understanding of the contribution of each of the different processes to C sequestration in subsoils and for improvements of subsoil C models is scarce. The same is true for the main controlling factors of the decomposition rates of soil organic matter in subsoils. Moreover, information on spatial variabilities of different properties in the subsoil is rare. The few studies available which couple near and middle infrared spectroscopy (NIRS/MIRS) with geostatistical approaches indicate a potential for the creation of spatial maps which may show hot spots with increased biological activities in the soil profile and their effects on the distribution of C contents. Objectives are (i) to determine the mean residence time of subsoil C in different fractions by applying fractionation procedures in combination with 14C measurements; (ii) to study the effects of water content, input of 13C-labelled roots and dissolved organic matter and spatial inaccessibility on C turnover in an automatic microcosm system; (iii) to determine general soil properties and soil biological and chemical characteristics using NIRS and MIRS, and (iv) to extrapolate the measured and estimated soil properties to the vertical profiles by using different spatial interpolation techniques. For the NIRS/MIRS applications, sample pretreatment (air-dried vs. freeze-dried samples) and calibration procedures (a modified partial least square (MPLS) approach vs. a genetic algorithm coupled with MPLS or PLS) will be optimized. We hypothesize that the combined application of chemical fractionation in combination with 14C measurements and the results of the incubation experiments will give the pool sizes of passive, intermediate, labile and very labile C and N and the mean residence times of labile and very labile C and N. These results will make it possible to initialize the new quantitative model to be developed by subproject PC. Additionally, we hypothesize that the sample pretreatment 'freeze-drying' will be more useful for the estimation of soil biological characteristics than air-drying. The GA-MPLS and GA-PLS approaches are expected to give better estimates of the soil characteristics than the MPLS and PLS approaches. The spatial maps for the different subsoil characteristics in combination with the spatial maps of temperature and water contents will presumably enable us to explain the spatial heterogeneity of C contents.

Simulation experiment of transpiration on Beeches from 2012 to 2021

Seepage measurement on Beeches from 2010 to 2021 at Britz Station, North-east of Berlin, Central Europe

Variability of evapotranspiration fluxes affected by wetting-drying cycles in beech, pine and mixed stands in the lowland of northeast Germany

Increasing climate variability, especially longer drought phases, shapes forest water consumption and constrains vegetation growth. However, the effects of drought-induced changes on evapotranspiration (ET) fluxes vary due to species-specific differences or features of the drought events. Here, we analyzed the seasonal variations in ET in pine, beech, and mixed forest stands in northeast Germany during the periods 2012-2021 and explored the ability of a process-based ecohydrological model (EcH2O) in reproducing the water balance components at this large-scale lysimeter site. To better understand how individual climate variables control ET fluxes, we performed simulation experiments with average climate inputs. Multi-variable calibration showed that the model reproduced well in-situ soil moisture, seepage, and interception (EI) in the three forest stands. Lower ET rates were found in the beech stand with a seasonal leaf cycle compared to those in the pine and mixed pine-beech stands with year-round foliage. This was mainly related to higher EI in the pine stand, particularly during the winter season, while transpiration (T) rates were similar. ET fluxes were above average during wet years and below average during dry years. Precipitation (P) was clearly the main driver of ET anomalies. However, only small reductions in ET were observed during the dry year 2018. This could be attributed to high P in the previous year, i.e., P legacy effects, which led to only small reductions or even positive anomalies in T. Moreover, model testing at such data-rich sites will also be valuable for other hydrological models to increase process-consistency and reliability, particularly when aiming at investigating effects of different vegetation cover. Our findings provide evidence for the strategic selection of broadleaf species in forest management practices to enhance groundwater recharge and promote sustainable water management.

Mesocosm experiment on the influence of heatwave on plankton

In the context of global change, marine organisms are subjected not only to gradual changes in abiotic parameters, but also to an increasing number of extreme events, such as heatwaves. However, we still know little about the influence of heatwaves on the structure of marine communities, and experimental studies are needed to test the impact of heatwaves alone, and in combination with other environmental drivers. Here, we conducted a mesocosm experiment and applied an integrated multiple driver design to assess the potential impact of heatwaves under ambient and future environmental conditions on natural coastal plankton communities. To represent future environmental conditions, temperature and pH were manipulated based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 proposed by the IPCC for 2100, and dissolved N:P ratios were increased to simulate the conditions expected in European coastal zones. Throughout the experiment, we measured abiotic conditions as well as the abundance of bacterioplankton, phytoplankton, and microzooplankton.

Light effects on the vertical positioning of the freshwater jellyfish (Craspedacusta sowerbii Lankester, 1880)

We experimentally manipulated the presence of light and light intensity (F = 36.7 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹; D = 0 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹; L = 4.8 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹; M = 21.4 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹) and tested their effects on the vertical positioning of the freshwater jellyfish (Craspedacusta sowerbii) medusae. For the experiments, approximately 100 C. sowerbii medusae were collected in August 2017 in two lakes (Haager Weiher and Leitner Weiher) in Bavaria, Germany. Testing was carried out at Seeon Limnological Station in close vicinity to the collection site. The experimental columns were 7.4 cm in diameter and 170 cm high and were marked with horizontal lines every 5 cm for visual position estimation. Four replicates run in parallel. One C. sowerbii medusa was used in each experimental column. Data cover three light treatments, each run twice: 1) 16:8 h full light (F)–dark (D) light intensity cycles (nF = 716, nD = 428), 2) 16:8 h full light (F)–full dark (D) light intensity cycles complemented with low (L) and medium (M) light intensities (nF = 96, nM = 96, nL = 48, nD = 288), and 3) altered light intensities in approximately 2-hour periods randomly among dark, low, medium, and full light intensities (nF = 96, nM = 76, nL = 72, nD = 336). Results show that light alone was sufficient to trigger a vertical position change of jellyfish towards the water surface, especially high light.

Modes of vector transmission of Cherry leaf roll virus (CLRV) - molecular basis and potential arthropod vector species

Cherry leaf roll virus (CLRV) is a plant pathogen of economic and ecologic importance. It is globally distributed in a wide range of forest, fruit, and ornamental trees and shrubs. In several areas of cherry and walnut production CLRV causes severe losses in yield and quality. With current reference to the rapid dissemination and strong symptom expression in Finnish birches and the Germany-wide distribution of CLRV in birches and elderberry, we continuously investigate and gradually reveal CLRV transmission pathways as by pollen, seeds or water. However, modes and interactions responsible for the wide intergeneric host transmission as well as for the exceptional CLRV epidemic in Fennoscandia still remain unknown. In this project systematic studies shall investigate biological vectors as a causal agent to finally derive control mechanisms and strategies to avoid new epidemics in different hosts and geographic regions. Detailed monitoring of the invertebrate fauna of birch stands/forests and elderberry plantations in Germany and Finland shall reveal potential vectors to subsequently study them in detail by approved virus detection methods and transmission experiments. Molecular analyses of the CLRV coat protein shall prove its role as a viral determinant for a virus/vector interaction. Consequently, this project essentially will contribute important answers on the CLRV epidemiology, and this will be a key element within the first network of research on plant viral pathogens in forest trees.

openSenseMap: Sensor Box experimenta Forum #2

Dies ist die SenseBox vor dem Forum der experimenta. Kommt gerne vorbei und schaut euch auch die anderen Citizen Science Projekte in unserem Welterforscher im Forum an.

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