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Farm structures are often characterized by regional heterogeneity, agglomeration effects, sub-optimal farm sizes and income disparities. The main objective of this study is to analyze whether this is a result of path dependent structural change, what the determinants of path dependence are, and how it may be overcome. The focus is on the German dairy sector which has been highly regulated and subsidized in the past and faces severe structural deficits. The future of this sector in the process of an ongoing liberalization will be analyzed by applying theoretical concepts of path dependence and path breaking. In these regards, key issues are the actual situation, technological and market trends as well as agricultural policies. The methodology will be based on a participative use of the agent-based model AgriPoliS and participatory laboratory experiments. On the one hand, AgriPoliS will be tested as a tool for stakeholder oriented analysis of mechanisms, trends and policy effects. This part aims to analyze whether and how path dependence of structural change can be overcome on a sector level. In a second part, AgriPoliS will be extended such that human players (farmers, students) can take over the role of agents in the model. This part aims to compare human agents with computer agents in order to overcome single farm path dependence.
Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is one major source of subsoil organic matter (OM). P5 aims at quantifying the impact of DOM input, transport, and transformation to the OC storage in the subsoil environment. The central hypotheses of this proposal are that in matric soil the increasing 14C age of organic carbon (OC) with soil depth is due to a cascade effect, thus, leading to old OC in young subsoil, whereas within preferential flowpaths sorptive stabilization is weak, and young and bioa-vailable DOM is translocated to the subsoil at high quantities. These hypotheses will be tested by a combination of DOC flux measurements with the comparative analysis of the composition and the turnover of DOM and mineral-associated OM. The work programme utilizes a DOM monitoring at the Grinderwald subsoil observatory, supplemented by defined experiments under field and labora-tory conditions, and laboratory DOM leaching experiments on soils of regional variability. A central aspect of the experiments is the link of a 13C-leaf litter labelling experiment to the 14C age of DOM and OM. With that P5 contributes to the grand goal of the research unit and addresses the general hypotheses that subsoil OM largely consists of displaced and old OM from overlying horizons, the sorption capacity of DOM and the pool size of mineral-associated OM are controlled by interaction with minerals, and that preferential flowpaths represent 'hot spots' of high substrate availability.
In bog ecosystems, vegetation controls key processes such as the retention of carbon, water and nutrients. In northern hemispherical bogs, a shift from Sphagnum- to vascular plant-dominated vegetation is often traced back to Climate Change and increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition and coincides with substantially reduced capacities in carbon, water and nutrient retention. In southern Patagonia, bogs dominated by Sphagnum and vascular plants coexist since millennia under similar environmental settings. Thus, South Patagonian bogs may serve as ideal examples for the long-term effect of vascular plant invasion on carbon, water and nutrient balances of bog ecosystems. The contemporary balances of carbon and water of both a bog dominated by Sphagnum and vascular plants are determined by CO2- H2O and CH4 flux measurements and an estimation of lateral water losses as well as losses via dissolved organic and inorganic carbon compounds. The high time resolution of simultaneous eddy covariance measurements of CO2 and H2O in both bog types and the strong interaction between climatic variables and the physiology of bog plants allow for direct comparisons of carbon and water fluxes during cold, warm, dry, wet, cloudy or sunny periods. By the combination with leaf-scale measurements of gas exchange and fluorescence, plant-physiological controls of photosynthesis and transpiration can be identified. Long-term peat accumulation rates will be determined by carbon density and age-depth profiles including a characterization of peat humification characteristics. A reciprocal transplantation experiment with incorporated shading, liming and labeled N addition treatments is conducted to explore driving factors affecting competition between Sphagnum and vascular plants as well as the interactions between CO2-, CH4-, and water fluxes and decisive plant functional traits affecting key processes for carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling. Decomposition rates and driving below ground processes are analyzed with a litter bag field experiment and an incubation experiment in the laboratory.
It is well established that reduced supply of fresh organic matter, interactions of organic matter with mineral phases and spatial inaccessibility affect C stocks in subsoils. However, quantitative information required for a better understanding of the contribution of each of the different processes to C sequestration in subsoils and for improvements of subsoil C models is scarce. The same is true for the main controlling factors of the decomposition rates of soil organic matter in subsoils. Moreover, information on spatial variabilities of different properties in the subsoil is rare. The few studies available which couple near and middle infrared spectroscopy (NIRS/MIRS) with geostatistical approaches indicate a potential for the creation of spatial maps which may show hot spots with increased biological activities in the soil profile and their effects on the distribution of C contents. Objectives are (i) to determine the mean residence time of subsoil C in different fractions by applying fractionation procedures in combination with 14C measurements; (ii) to study the effects of water content, input of 13C-labelled roots and dissolved organic matter and spatial inaccessibility on C turnover in an automatic microcosm system; (iii) to determine general soil properties and soil biological and chemical characteristics using NIRS and MIRS, and (iv) to extrapolate the measured and estimated soil properties to the vertical profiles by using different spatial interpolation techniques. For the NIRS/MIRS applications, sample pretreatment (air-dried vs. freeze-dried samples) and calibration procedures (a modified partial least square (MPLS) approach vs. a genetic algorithm coupled with MPLS or PLS) will be optimized. We hypothesize that the combined application of chemical fractionation in combination with 14C measurements and the results of the incubation experiments will give the pool sizes of passive, intermediate, labile and very labile C and N and the mean residence times of labile and very labile C and N. These results will make it possible to initialize the new quantitative model to be developed by subproject PC. Additionally, we hypothesize that the sample pretreatment 'freeze-drying' will be more useful for the estimation of soil biological characteristics than air-drying. The GA-MPLS and GA-PLS approaches are expected to give better estimates of the soil characteristics than the MPLS and PLS approaches. The spatial maps for the different subsoil characteristics in combination with the spatial maps of temperature and water contents will presumably enable us to explain the spatial heterogeneity of C contents.
In the context of global change, marine organisms are subjected not only to gradual changes in abiotic parameters, but also to an increasing number of extreme events, such as heatwaves. However, we still know little about the influence of heatwaves on the structure of marine communities, and experimental studies are needed to test the impact of heatwaves alone, and in combination with other environmental drivers. Here, we conducted a mesocosm experiment and applied an integrated multiple driver design to assess the potential impact of heatwaves under ambient and future environmental conditions on natural coastal plankton communities. To represent future environmental conditions, temperature and pH were manipulated based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 proposed by the IPCC for 2100, and dissolved N:P ratios were increased to simulate the conditions expected in European coastal zones. Throughout the experiment, we measured abiotic conditions as well as the abundance of bacterioplankton, phytoplankton, and microzooplankton.
Recent and predicted increases in extremely dry and hot summers emphasise the need for silvicultural approaches to increase the drought tolerance of existing forests in the short-term, before adaptation through species changes may be possible. We aim to investigate whether resistance during droughts, as well as the recovery following drought events (resilience), can be increased by allocating more growing space to individual trees through thinning. Thinning increases access of promoted trees to soil stored water, as long as this is available. However, these trees may also be disadvantaged through a higher transpirational surface, or the increased neighbourhood competition by ground vegetation. To assess whether trees with different growing space differ in drought tolerance, tree discs and cores from thinning experiments of Pinus sylvestris and Pseudotsuga menziesii stands will be used to examine transpirational stress and growth reduction during previous droughts as well as their subsequent recovery. Dendroecology and stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen in tree-rings will be used to quantify how assimilation rate and stomatal conductance were altered through thinning. The results will provide crucial information for the development of short-term silvicultural adaptation strategies to adapt forest ecosystems to climate change. In addition, this study will improve our understanding of the relationship between resistance and resilience of trees in relation to extreme stress events.
Subproject 3 will investigate the effect of shifting from continuously flooded rice cropping to crop rotation (including non-flooded systems) and diversified crops on the soil fauna communities and associated ecosystem functions. In both flooded and non-flooded systems, functional groups with a major impact on soil functions will be identified and their response to changing management regimes as well as their re-colonization capability after crop rotation will be quantified. Soil functions corresponding to specific functional groups, i.e. biogenic structural damage of the puddle layer, water loss and nutrient leaching, will be determined by correlating soil fauna data with soil service data of SP4, SP5 and SP7 and with data collected within this subproject (SP3). In addition to the field data acquired directly at the IRRI, microcosm experiments covering the broader range of environmental conditions expected under future climate conditions will be set up to determine the compositional and functional robustness of major components of the local soil fauna. Food webs will be modeled based on the soil animal data available to gain a thorough understanding of i) the factors shaping biological communities in rice cropping systems, and ii) C- and N-flow mediated by soil communities in rice fields. Advanced statistical modeling for quantification of species - environment relationships integrating all data subsets will specify the impact of crop diversification in rice agro-ecosystems on soil biota and on the related ecosystem services.
In subsoils, organic matter (SOM) concentrations and microbial densities are much lower than in topsoils and most likely highly heterogeneously distributed. We therefore hypothesize, that the spatial separation between consumers (microorganisms) and their substrates (SOM) is an important limiting factor for carbon turnover in subsoils. Further, we expect microbial activity to occur mainly in few hot spots, such as the rhizosphere or flow paths where fresh substrate inputs are rapidly mineralized. In a first step, the spatial distribution of enzyme and microbial activities in top- and subsoils will be determined in order to identify hot spots and relate this to apparent 14C age, SOM composition, microbial community composition and soil properties, as determined by the other projects within the research unit. In a further step it will be determined, if microbial activity and SOM turnover is limited by substrate availability in spatially distinct soil microsites. By relating this data to root distribution and preferential flow paths we will contribute to the understanding of stabilizing and destabilizing processes of subsoil organic matter. As it is unclear, at which spatial scale these differentiating processes are effective, the analysis of spatial variability will cover the dm to the mm scale. As spatial segregation between consumers and substrates will depend on the pore and aggregate architecture of the soil, the role of the physical integrity of these structures on SOM turnover will also be investigated in laboratory experiments.
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