Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
In the Bavarian Forest National Park a brief, but intense storm event on 1 August 1983 created large windfall areas. The windfall ecosystems within the protection zone of the park were left develop without interference; outside this zone windfall areas were cleared of dead wood but not afforested. A set of permanent plots (transect design with 10 to 10 m plots) was established in 1988 in spruce forests of wet and cool valley bottoms in order to document vegetation development. Resampling shall take place every five years; up to now it was done in 1993 and 1998. On cleared areas an initial raspberry (Rubus idaeus) shrub community was followed by pioneer birch (Betula pubescens, B. pendula) woodland, a sequence well known from managed forest stands. In contrast to this, these two stages were restricted to root plates of fallen trees in uncleared windfalls; here shade-tolerant tree species of the terminal forest stages established rather quickly from saplings that had already been present in the preceeding forest stand. Soil surface disturbances are identified to be causal to the management pathway of forest development, wereas the untouched pathway is caused by relatively low disturbance levels. The simulation model FORSKA-M is used to analyse different options of further stand development with a simulation time period of one hundred years.
Langjährige Pegelaufzeichnungen aus dem Gebiet der südöstlichen Nordsee zeigen seit Mitte des 20. Jahrhunderts signifikante Veränderungen im lokalen Tideregime. Während der mittlere Meeresspiegel (englisch: Mean Sea Level, MSL) über die vergangenen 150 Jahre generell dem globalen Mittel gefolgt ist, deuten Auswertungen der mittleren Tidehoch- und Tideniedrigwasser auf signifikant abweichende Trends hin. So sind die Tidehochwasser signifikant schneller als der MSL angestiegen, während die Tideniedrigwasser deutlich geringere oder teils negative Trends aufzeigen. Daraus resultierte eine gleichzeitige Zunahme des Tidehubs (die Differenz aus Tidehoch- und Tideniedrigwasser) von ca. 10 % seit 1955. Derartige Veränderungen haben direkte Auswirkungen auf den Küstenschutz. So ergeben sich bei einem Anstieg der mittleren Tidehochwasser größere Wassertiefen, wodurch das Wellenklima insbesondere im Bereich der Wattflächen und Außensände in der Deutschen Bucht beeinflusst wird. Größere Wellenhöhen und damit höhere Orbitalgeschwindigkeiten und Brandungsenergien sind die unmittelbare Folge, die zu großflächigen Erosionen führen kann. Gleichzeitig beeinflussen geringere Tideniedrigwasser die Schiffbarkeit der flachen Küstengewässer. Durch den vergrößerten Tidehub treten größere Tidestromgeschwindigkeiten auf, die z.B. Ausräumungen der Tiderinnen, verstärkte Erosionen an Inselsockeln, Strandräumungen und im Zusammenhang mit Sturmfluten Dünen- und Kliffabbrüchen verursachen können. Dies verdeutlicht, dass neben den global wirkenden übergeordneten Veränderungen im MSL (Massenänderungen, thermale Expansion) auch regionale Phänomene und Prozesse eine wichtige Rolle für die Ausprägung der Wasserstände spielen. Eine Berücksichtigung solcher Faktoren in den Projektionen zukünftiger Wasserstände setzt voraus, dass vergangene Entwicklungen und zugrunde liegende Prozesse ausreichend verstanden sind. Das übergeordnete Ziel von TIDEDYN besteht daher in der Analyse der in der Vergangenheit bereits aufgetreten Veränderungen im lokalen Tideregime der Nordsee. Die beobachtete Zunahme des Tidehubs ist in ihrer starken Ausprägung ein weltweit einzigartiges Phänomen, welches bis heute nicht erklärt werden kann. Als mögliche (aber bisher unerforschte) Ursachen kommen z.B. langfristige Änderungen im MSL, morphologische Änderungen im Küstenvorfeld (natürlich oder anthropogen, z.B. Ausbaggerungen oder Baumaßnahmen wie Eindeichungen) oder saisonale Änderungen in der thermohalinen Schichtung des Ozeans in Frage. Durch die integrierte Analyse von hochauflösenden numerischen Modellen (barotrop und baroklin) und Beobachtungsdaten mit robusten Methoden der Zeitreihenanalyse, sollen die Änderungen im Tideregime der Nordsee über die vergangen 60-70 Jahre beschrieben, modelliert und systematisch erforscht werden sowie einzelne Prozesse mittels Sensitivitätsstudien voneinander abgegrenzt werden.
Gasaustausch findet in der Atmosphäre primär durch turbulenten und laminaren Fluss statt. Im Boden dagegen spielt advektiver Gastransport eine untergeordnete Rolle, stattdessen dominiert Diffusion die Transportprozesse. Trotz der Unterschiedlichkeit und scheinbaren Unabhängigkeit dieser Prozesse wurde während Freilanduntersuchungen ein Anstieg von Gastransportraten im Boden um mehrere 10 % während Phasen starken Windes beobachtet. Dieser Anstieg ist auf wind-induzierte Druckfluktuationen zurückzuführen, die sich in das luftgefüllte Porensystem des Bodens fortpflanzen und zu einem minimal oszillierenden Luftmassenfluss führen (Pressure-pumping Effekt). Durch den oszillierenden Charakter des Luftmassenflusses ist der direkte Beitrag zum Gastransport sehr gering. Die damit einhergehende Dispersion führt jedoch zu einem Anstieg der effektiven Gastransportrate entgegen des Konzentrationsgradienten. Wird der Pressure-pumping (PP) Effekt bei der Bestimmung von Gasflüssen mit der Gradienten- und Kammermethode nicht berücksichtigt, kann dies zu großen Unsicherheiten in der Bestimmung von Bodengasflüssen führen. Insbesondere für das langfristige Monitoring von treibhausrelevanten Gasflüssen stellen diese Unsicherheiten ein zentrales Problem dar. Wir stellen vier Hypothesen auf:(H1) Der PP-Effekt ist abhängig von Bodeneigenschaften.(H2) Die Ausprägung von Luftdruckfluktuationen ist abhängig von der Rauigkeit verschiedener Landnutzungen (Wald, Grasland, landwirtschaftliche Kulturen, Stadt)(H3) Kammermessungen werden durch Luftdruckfluktuationen beeinflusst.(H4) Der Austausch und Umsatz von Methan in Böden von Mittelgebirgswäldern wird durch den PP-Effekt verstärkt. Die Hypothesen 1, 3 und 4 werden mittels Laboruntersuchungen von Proben verschiedener Böden und Bodenfeuchtebedingungen überprüft. Die Hypothese 2 wird durch Freilandmessungen an verschiedenen Standorten überprüft. Ziele des Vorhabens sind: (Z1) Modelle zu entwickeln, die die Quantifizierung des Einflusses der Bodenstruktur auf den PP-Effekt ermöglichen, (Z2) den Effekt der Oberflächenrauigkeit auf Luftdruckschwankungen zu quantifizieren, (Z3) Schwellenwerte zu definieren, die die Bestimmung von Standorten mit ausgeprägtem PP-Effekt ermöglichen, (Z4) Faktoren für die Berücksichtigung des PP-Effekts für Kammermessungen zu entwickeln, (Z5) Faktoren für die Berücksichtigung des PP-Effekts für die Gradienten Methode zu entwickeln, (Z6) den Einfluss des PP-Effekts auf die Methanaufnahme von Böden in Mittelgebirgswäldern zu bestimmen. Ein besseres Verständnis des bisher nur unzureichend untersuchten PP-Effekts wird wesentlich dazu beitragen, die Verlässlichkeit und Präzision von Messungen von Bodengasflüssen zu steigern, die die Grundlage für weitergehende Forschung darstellen.
The geomagnetic field shields our habitat against solar wind and radiation from space. Due to the geometry of the field, the shielding in general is weakest at high latitudes. It is also anomalously weak in a region around the south Atlantic known as South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), and the global dipole moment has been decreasing by nearly 10 percent since direct measurements of field intensity became possible in 1832. Due to our limited understanding of the geodynamo processes in Earths core, it is impossible to reliably predict the future evolution of both dipole moment and SAA over the coming decades. However, lack of magnetic field shielding as would be a consequence of further weakening of dipole moment and SAA region field intensity would cause increasing problems for modern technology, in particular satellites, which are vulnerable to radiation damage. A better understanding of the underlying processes is required to estimate the future development of magnetic field characteristics. The study of the past evolution of such characteristics based on historical, archeo- and paleomagnetic data, on time-scales of centuries to millennia, is essential to detect any recurrences and periodicities and provide new insights in dynamo processes in comparison to or in combination with numerical dynamo simulations. We propose to develop two new global spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models, spanning 1 and 10 kyrs, respectively, and designed in particular to study how long the uninterrupted decay of the dipole moment has been going on prior to 1832, and if the SAA is a recurring structure of the field.We will combine for the first time all available historical and archeomagnetic data, both directions and intensities, in a spherical harmonic model spanning the past 1000 years. Existing modelling methods will be adapted accordingly, and existing data bases will be complemented with newly published data. We will further acquire some new archeomagnetic data from the Cape Verde islands from historical times to better constrain the early evolution of the present-day SAA. In order to study the long-term field evolution and possible recurrences of similar weak field structures in this region, we will produce new paleomagnetic records from available marine sediment cores off the coasts of West Africa, Brazil and Chile. This region is weakly constrained in previous millennial scale models. Apart from our main aim to gain better insights into the previous evolution of dipole moment and SAA, the models will be used to study relations between dipole and non-dipole field contributions, hemispheric symmetries and large-scale flux patterns at the core-mantle boundary. These observational findings will provide new insights into geodynamo processes when compared with numerical dynamo simulation results.Moreover, the models can be used to estimate past geomagnetic shielding above Earths surface against solar wind and for nuclide production from galactic cosmic rays.
Shallow groundwater of the huge deltaic systems of Asia like the Red River Delta in Vietnam is often enriched in inorganic arsenic (As), threatening the health of millions of residents. The massive abstraction of groundwater in these areas locally causes an irreversible mixing of arsenic-free groundwater resources with arsenic-rich groundwater. Increased concentrations of competitive anions, especially phosphate (PO43-), decrease the immobilization capacity of the sediments. During transport, the mobility of dissolved As in local aquifers is strongly influenced by adsorption to sedimentary and ubiquitously occurring iron(oxyhydr)oxides. Additionally, arsenic-rich groundwater is often enriched in reduced iron (Fe2+) as well, which is capable to react with iron(oxyhydr)oxides, thereby inducing mineral transformations. Such transformations permanently affect the arsenic adsorption and immobilization capacity of the sediments.Within the scope of this research project, the underlying mechanisms related to As transport and the resulting threat to arsenic-free groundwater resources will be characterized in cooperation with the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag). The research concept aims at assessing the complex interactions within the arsenic-iron-phosphate-system under field conditions at a study site next to the Red River. First, filtration experiments using local groundwater enriched in As and PO43- will be used to determine the As adsorption capacity of different and previously geochemically characterized iron(oxyhydr)oxides. In a second step, sample carrier containing As loaded iron(oxyhydr)oxides will be introduced into surface near aquifer parts of the study site (via existing groundwater monitoring wells). These samples will be exposed to local groundwater characterized by increased As, Fe2+ and PO43- concentrations for the following nine months. Using the in situ exposition of predefined iron(oxyhydr)oxides, it will be possible to distinguish potential mineral transformations and their influences on the As immobilization capacity of the respective iron(oxyhydr)oxides. By combining the results and outcomes of the field experiments, new and important conclusions regarding the mobility of As can be drawn. The data can be used to create a hydrochemical transport model describing reactive As transport within the investigation area. In addition, the results of the in situ exposition experiments will allow to draw conclusions in respective to the long term As immobilization capacity of different iron(oxyhydr)oxides, which is an essential information regarding in situ decontamination techniques.
Fragmentation of the natural environment has contributed to major biodiversity loss in South East Asia. Reptiles represent a significant biomass and occupy important functions in our ecosystem. However, these organisms are highly sensitive to relatively minor changes in temperature and habitat alteration. In this study we will investigate the effects of habitat fragmentation and potentially climate change on agamids at several sites in Southeast Asia. We will identify the species richness of agamids, their habitat use, and their diet. By using morphometrics, we aim to correlate morphology and habitat use and diet to explore the ecological niches these lizards occupy. We will also test for microhabitat preferences and optima to understand the ecological impacts on these species caused by forest fragmentation. We hope to use this approach to lay the foundations for macro-ecological modelling proving insights into future distributions and the impact of habitat connectivity.
In the Earth, the dynamo action is strongly linked to core freezing. There is a solid inner core, the growth of which provides a buoyancy flux that drives the dynamo. The buoyancy in this case derives from a difference in composition between the solid inner core and the fluid outer core. In planetary bodies smaller than the Earth, however, this core differentiation process may differ - Fe may precipitate at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) rather than in the center and may fall as iron snow and initially remelt with greater depth. A chemical stable sedimentation zone develops that comprises with time the entire core - at that time a solid inner core starts to grow. The dynamics of this system is not well understood and also whether it can generate a magnetic field or not. The Jovian moon Ganymede, which shows a present-day magnetic dipole field, is a candidate for which such a scenario has been suggested. We plan to study this Fe-snow regime with both a numerical and experimental approach. In the numerical study, we use a 2D/3D thermo-chemical convection model that considers crystallization and sinking of iron crystals together with the dynamics of the liquid core phase (for the 3D case the influence of the rotation of the Fe snow process is further studied).The numerical calculations will be complemented by two series of experiments: (1) investigations in metal alloys by means of X-ray radioscopy, and (2) measurements in transparent analogues by optical techniques. The experiments will examine typical features of the iron snow regime. On the one hand they will serve as a tool to validate the numerical approach and on the other hand they will yield important insight into sub-processes of the iron snow regime, which cannot be accessed within the numerical approach due to their complexity.
Im Auftrag des Bayerischen Landesamtes für Umwelt hat bifa den erstmals 2003 durchgeführten Ökoeffizienzvergleich der Entsorgungsstrukturen Bayerns, Deutschlands und der Schweiz erweitert und aktualisiert. Die Ergebnisse aus dem Jahr 2003 zeigten, dass der bayerische Weg zur Gestaltung der Abfallwirtschaft in seiner Ökoeffizienz im Vergleich mit den Entsorgungsstrukturen der Schweiz und dem deutschen Durchschnitt am besten abschnitt. Nach der, im Rahmen der aktuellen Beauftragung, durchgeführten Datenaktualisierung, der Bilanzierung zusätzlicher Wertstoffströme und der Berücksichtigung des Verbots der Ablagerung nicht vorbehandelter Abfälle rücken die Entsorgungsstrukturen hinsichtlich Ihrer Ökoeffizienz deutlich enger zusammen. Die Entsorgungsstruktur Bayerns weist im Vergleich zur Entsorgungsstruktur Deutschlands zwar noch ein geringfügig besseres ökologisches Gesamtergebnis auf, ist aber gleichzeitig mit leicht höheren Gesamtkosten verbunden. Die Entsorgungsstruktur der Schweiz ist etwas weniger ökoeffizient. Die Ursachen dafür sind eine geringere Umweltentlastung im ökologischen Gesamtergebnis, gepaart mit vergleichsweise hohen Entsorgungskosten. Methoden: Analyse und Moderation sozialer Prozesse, Ökobilanzierung und Systemanalyse, Ökonomie und Managementberatung.
This project aims to elucidate how sensitive and to which extent soil properties respond to different rangeland management in the grassland and savannah biome of semiarid South Africa, and to figure out to which degree changes of the ecosystems are perceived and caused by farmers' decisions. We hypothesise that both ecosystems respond differently to rangeland degradation: in the savannah biome bush encroachment leads to an improvement of the soil quality, whereas in grasslands degradation of the soils proceeds with intensified management.
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