Die Hochwasserereignisse im Dezember 1993 und Januar 1995 am Rhein, Juli/August 1997 an der Oder sowie im August 2002 an der Elbe und die hervorgerufenen Schäden haben in Deutschland zu der Erkenntnis geführt, dass baulich-technische Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen nicht ausreichen, sondern dass ein vorsorgeorientiertes, die Ziele einer dauerhaft umweltgerechten Entwicklung verfolgendes Hochwassermanagement erforderlich ist. Dazu zählen der technische Hochwasserschutz, die weitergehende Hochwasservorsorge und die Flächenvorsorge zum natürlichen Rückhalt als vorbeugender Hochwasserschutz. Allerdings treten Defizite bei der Operationalisierung dieser politischen Ziele und Strategien auf der Umsetzungsebene auf. Es bleibt bisher die Frage unbeantwortet, ob es sich dabei um Regelungs- oder Vollzugsdefizite handelt. Das Forschungsvorhaben am Institut für Forst- und Umweltpolitik verfolgt das Ziel, die Bedingungen für die Implementation von existierenden politischen Initiativen zum vorbeugenden Hochwasserschutz zu untersuchen. Bedeutsam für die Untersuchung ist dabei die Betrachtung von Akteuren der verschiedenen politischen Ebenen und Sektoren im Durchführungsprozess, deren Kommunikations- und Machtstrukturen sowie der eingesetzten Instrumente, um hieraus Erkenntnisse über die politische Steuerung und deren Wirkung gewinnen zu können. Die Politikfeldanalyse sieht den Vergleich der Hochwasserschutzpolitik der Bundesländer Nordrhein-Westfalen, Rheinland-Pfalz und Baden-Württemberg vor und wird unter Verwendung von Methoden der qualitativen Sozialforschung durchgeführt. Im Ergebnis sollen Effizienzfaktoren ermittelt und schließlich Handlungsempfehlungen für die Implementation von ressort- und grenzübergreifenden Planungsprozessen in komplexen politischen Systemen abgeleitet werden.
The project main goal is to contribute to our understanding of tsunami processes in the Euro-Mediterranean region, to the tsunami hazard and risk assessment and to identifying the best strategies for reduction of tsunami risk. Focus will be posed on the gaps and needs for the implementation of an efficient tsunami early warning system (TEWS) in the Euro- Mediterranean area, which is a high-priority task in consideration that no tsunami early warning system is today in place in the Euro-Mediterranean countries. The main items addressed by the project may be summarised as follows. The present Europe tsunami catalogue will be improved and updated, and integrated into a world-wide catalogue (WP1). A systematic attempt will be made to identify and to characterise the tsunamigenic seismic (WP2) and non-seismic (WP3) sources throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region. An analysis of the present-day earth observing and monitoring (seismic, geodetic and marine) systems and data processing methods will be carried out in order to identify possible adjustments required for the development of a TEWS, with focus on new algorithms suited for real-time detection of tsunami sources and tsunamis (WP4). The numerical models currently used for tsunami simulations will be improved mainly to better handle the generation process and the tsunami impact at the coast (WP5). The project Consortium has selected ten test areas in different countries. Here innovative probabilistic and statistical approaches for tsunami hazard assessment (WP6), up-to-date and new methods to compute inundation maps (WP7) will be applied. Here tsunami scenario approaches will be envisaged; vulnerability and risk will be assessed; prevention and mitigation measures will be defined also by the advise of end users that are organised in an End User Group (WP8). Dissemination of data, techniques and products will be a priority of the project (WP9). Prime Contractor: Alma Mater Studiorum-Universita di Bologna; Bologna, Italy.
The scientific evidence base to support credible risk assessment for the design of appropriate microbial standards for bathing waters is insufficient. This is particularly true for Mediterranean waters, for new member states and for effects associated with exposure to toxic algal products. This is a pressing problem as Directive 76/160/EEC is currently in the process of amendment by the EU. It is therefore intended to address three questions, namely: a. What is the nature and level of the risk and how does exposure affect risk? b. What level of protection is afforded by the threshold values in Directive 76/160/EEC and CEC (2004)? c. How do the risks vary between fresh and marine waters and does the 1:2 ratio of the faecal indicator threshold values in coastal waters vs freshwaters ensure a comparable level of protection? In the first 12 months, this proposal will (i) complete a literature review and meta-analysis of current epidemiological data derived principally from UK and German studies, (ii) define data gaps restricting the application of credible health-evidence-based policy to bathing water standards outside these regions and (iii) design and agree a suitable research protocol for filling these data gaps. The second twelve months of research (from month 13 to 24) will (iv) implement this protocol and the project will deliver (v) a scientific report of the findings and detailed policy interpretation before the project end, i.e. 36 months following commencement. Prime Contractor: University Wales, University College Aberystwyth; Aberystwyth; Aberystwyth.
Working group 7 (Agriculture) under the European Climate Change Programme has so far mainly dealt with mitigation potentials of GHG. A thorough integrated economic and environmental assessment in the area of agriculture and sinks has not yet been carried out. In order to support the international negotiation process and for the development of good policies the Integrated Sink Enhancement Assessment (INSEA) project's objective is to develop an analytical tool to assess economic and environmental effects for enhancing carbon sinks in agriculture and forestry. The approach is centered on spatially explicit databases that will allow the calculation of 'cost-landscapes' taking on an engineering approach to integrated costs computation of additional sink enhancement measures and negative emission technologies. The various model structures will be applied to detailed European data sets and less detailed global data sets assessing the marginal abatement cost and long-term scenarios of sink enhancement measures. Concise policy conclusions from the modeling exercise will aim at supporting the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol commitments as well as post Kyoto negotiations. In the proposal we advocate a spatially explicit approach that is motivated by the fact that LULUCF activities are by their very nature spatial entities and aggregate non-spatial treatment could, according to our experience, lead to serious biases in the assessment. Furthermore, we propose not only a simple and easily tractable static and deterministic approach for cost calculations, but also more comprehensive, dynamic, and uncertainty (risk)-based treatments. We believe that such a multidimensional approach is necessary since ecosystems are more complicated and complex in their responses and therefore robustness and consistency across a variety of decision rules will guarantee sustainable management of this natural resource.
In September 2009, the third Research Programme for the Geological Disposal of Radioactive Waste (OnderzoeksProgramma Eindberging Radioactief Afval, or OPERA) 2011-2016 was initiated. The aim of the research programme is to evaluate the existing safety and feasibility studies (the Safety Case). For many industrial risk-bearing activities it is required to review the permits and accompanying safety analyses on a regular basis (every 5 to 10 years). This review is made using new insights and looks at possible modifications to company management. The reviews conducted regarding the feasibility and safety of geological disposal for radioactive waste are now over 10 to 20 years old; it is important to periodically re-evaluate them and take into account new developments. In work package 7, Scenario development and Performance Assessment, ten tasks are defined. All methods and instruments that are required for the safety assessments in the Safety Case are defined, developed and documented. For these safety assessments, scenarios need to be identified and represented. The OPAP-I project will define and build the technical and methodological backbone that enables the safety assessment of the OPERA Safety Case. The OPAP-I project covers all six tasks of WP7 tendered in the 1st Call and forms a consistent package that efficiently addresses the links between all tasks. The project will be executed by an international, interdisciplinary consortium of NRG, TNO, SCK-CEN and GRS, which many years of experience will guarantees the successful application of state-of-the-art methodologies. The project is structured in a way that it enables the integration of the scientific results of all supporting OPERA WPs and translates these results into the technical format necessary to execute PA calculations. The main outcome of the OPAP-I project will be a list of safety and performance indicators and their accompanying probability distributions, calculated for all scenarios. This list enables the OPERA programme to make a statement on the longterm safety of a future disposal of radioactive waste in Boom Clay. Task 7.1.1 Scenario development - Task 7.1.2 Scenario representation - Task 7.2.1 PA model for radionuclide migration in Boom Clay - Task 7.3.1 Safety and Performance Indicators calculation methodology - Task 7.3.2 Methods for the uncertainty analysis - Task 7.3.3 Safety assessment calculations.
The Integrated Project (WATCH) which will bring together the hydrological, water resources and climate communities to analyse, quantify and predict the components of the current and future global water cycles and related water resources states, evaluate their uncertainties and clarify the overall vulnerability of global water resources related to the main societal and economic sectors. WATCH project will: - analyse and describe the current global water cycle, especially causal chains leading to observable changes in extremes (droughts and floods) - evaluate how the global water cycle and its extremes respond to future drivers of global change (including greenhouse gas release and land cover change) - evaluate feedbacks in the coupled system as they affect t he global water cycle - evaluate the uncertainties in the predictions of coupled climate-hydrological- land-use models using a combination of model ensembles and observations - develop an enhanced (modelling) framework to assess the future vulnerability of water as a resource, and in relation to water/climate related vulnerabilities and risks of the major water related sectors, such as agriculture, nature and utilities (energy, industry and drinking water sector) - provide comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessments and predictions of the vulnerability of the water resources and water-/climate-related vulnerabilities and risks for the 21st century - collaborate intensively with the key leading research groups on water cycle and water resources in USA and Japan - collaborate intensively in dissemination of its scientific results with major research programmes worldwide (WCRP, IGBP) - collaborate intensively in dissemination of its practical and applied results with major water resources and water management platforms and professional organisations worldwide (WWC, IWA) and at a scale of 5 selected river basins in Europe. Prime Contractor: Natural Environment Research Council, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Swindon; United Kingdom.
The proposed regulation concerning the registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction of chemicals (REACH) requires demonstration of the safe manufacture of chemicals and their safe use throughout the supply chain. There is therefore a strong need to strengthen and advance human and environmental risk assessment knowledge and practices with regard to chemicals, in accord with the precautionary principle. The goal of the project OSIRIS is to develop integrated testing strategies (ITS) fit for REACH that enable to significantly increase the use of non-testing information for regulatory decision making, and thus minimise the need for animal testing. To this end, operational procedures will be developed, tested and disseminated that guide a transparent and scientifically sound evaluation of chemical substances in a risk-driven, context-specific and substance-tailored (RCS) manner. The envisaged decision theory framework includes alternative methods such as chemical and biological read-across, in vitro results, in vivo information on analogues, qualitative and quantitative structure-activity relationships, thresholds of toxicological concern and exposure-based waiving, and takes into account cost-benefit analyses as well as societal risk perception. It is based on the new REACH paradigm to move away from extensive standard testing to a more intelligent, substance-tailored approach. The work will be organised in five interlinked research pillars (chemical domain, biological domain, exposure, integration strategies and tools, case studies), with a particular focus on more complex, long-term and high-cost endpoints. Case studies will demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the new ITS methodologies, and provide guidance in concrete form. To ensure optimal uptake of the results obtained in this project, end-users in industry and regulatory authorities will be closely involved in monitoring and in providing specific technical contributions to this project.
The aim of 2-FUN is to provide decision-makers with a Decision Support System (DSS) that supports the analysis of current and future trends in environmental conditions and pressures causing health problems, and to evaluate and rank the management options of the composing risk factors using a cost-benefit evaluation. The DSS and its associated Geographical Information System (GIS) will offer a wide range of functionalities allowing the generation of results of high concern for health risk assessment: building of long-term environmental and socio-economic scenarios, exposure and effects mapping, provision of uncertainty margins, identification of sensitive pathways and risks, integrated risk indices and monetary values mapping, ranking of risk factors. Specific scientific actions will be set up to feed the DSS with methodologies/databases/models/ software on the following topics: Building future realistic socio-economic, environmental and health scenarios; Integrated exposure, effect and monetary assessment of multi-stressors and multi-routes; Integration of childrens issues in health risk assessments; Environment-related health indicators for relevant ranking and comparison of risk factors and monetary valuation of health effects; Development of uncertainty models for further health management; Implementation of a full-chain approach for health risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. 2-FUN also proposes to engage in a structural dialogue with all interested parties (stakeholders, policy-makers and researchers) to monitor large environment- and health-focused scientific initiatives and to incorporate stakeholders vision and needs regarding the development of tools for health risk assessment. The DSS will be tested on contrasted case studies covering a wide range of temporal, spatial, sectorial, environmental, societal contexts requiring comprehensive costbenefit analysis and able to provide policy-makers with relevant and easy-to-use information. Prime Contractor: Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques; Paris; France.
Trees use water while storing carbon; tree crops replace natural forest while reducing poverty; market-oriented monocultures compete with risk-averse poly-cultures, trading off income and risk; plantations displace smallholders, trading off local rights and income opportunities; national reforestation programs use public resources, promising an increase in environmental services that may not happen. Trees in all these examples are closely linked to tradeoffs and conflict, exaggerated expectations and strong disappointment. Integrated Natural Resource Management (INRM) requires site-specific understanding of tradeoffs between and among the goods and services that trees in agro-ecosystems can provide. It is thus costly when compared to readily scalable green revolution technologies. Replicable, cost-effective approaches are needed in the hands of local professionals with interdisciplinary skills to help stakeholders sort out positive and negative effects of trees in multi-use landscapes ( agroforestry) on livelihoods, water and (agro) biodiversity, associated rights and rewards, and thus on Millenium Development Goals (reducing poverty - promoting equitable forms of globalisation - building peace). ICRAF in SE Asia has developed a negotiation support approach for reducing conflict in multi-use landscapes. The approach aims to bridge perception gaps between stakeholders (with their local, public/policy and scientific knowledge paradigms), increase recognition and respect for these multiple knowledge systems, provide quantification of tradeoffs between economic and environmental impacts at landscape scale, and allow for joint analysis of plausible scenarios. Building on the achievements of participatory rural appraisal, we can now add quantitative strengths with the toolbox for tradeoff analysis. The TUL-SEA project (NARS, ICRAF and Hohenheim) will in 3 years lead to: Tests of cost-effectiveness of appraisal tools for tradeoff analysis in a wide range of agroforestry contexts in SE Asia represented by 15 INRM case studies; building on ASB (Alternatives to Slash and Burn; http://www.asb.cgiar.org/) benchmark areas with significant positive local impacts on poverty, environment and peace (www.icraf.org/sea/Publications/searchpub.asp?publishid=1290); Enhanced national capacity in trade-off analysis, information-based INRM negotiations and ex ante impact assessments; An integrated toolbox ready for widespread application. The toolbox consists of instruments for rapid appraisal of landscape, tenure conflict, market, hydrology, agrobiodiversity and carbon stocks, and simulation models for scenario analysis of landscape-level impacts of changes in market access or agroforestry technology.
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