Die Hochwasserereignisse im Dezember 1993 und Januar 1995 am Rhein, Juli/August 1997 an der Oder sowie im August 2002 an der Elbe und die hervorgerufenen Schäden haben in Deutschland zu der Erkenntnis geführt, dass baulich-technische Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen nicht ausreichen, sondern dass ein vorsorgeorientiertes, die Ziele einer dauerhaft umweltgerechten Entwicklung verfolgendes Hochwassermanagement erforderlich ist. Dazu zählen der technische Hochwasserschutz, die weitergehende Hochwasservorsorge und die Flächenvorsorge zum natürlichen Rückhalt als vorbeugender Hochwasserschutz. Allerdings treten Defizite bei der Operationalisierung dieser politischen Ziele und Strategien auf der Umsetzungsebene auf. Es bleibt bisher die Frage unbeantwortet, ob es sich dabei um Regelungs- oder Vollzugsdefizite handelt. Das Forschungsvorhaben am Institut für Forst- und Umweltpolitik verfolgt das Ziel, die Bedingungen für die Implementation von existierenden politischen Initiativen zum vorbeugenden Hochwasserschutz zu untersuchen. Bedeutsam für die Untersuchung ist dabei die Betrachtung von Akteuren der verschiedenen politischen Ebenen und Sektoren im Durchführungsprozess, deren Kommunikations- und Machtstrukturen sowie der eingesetzten Instrumente, um hieraus Erkenntnisse über die politische Steuerung und deren Wirkung gewinnen zu können. Die Politikfeldanalyse sieht den Vergleich der Hochwasserschutzpolitik der Bundesländer Nordrhein-Westfalen, Rheinland-Pfalz und Baden-Württemberg vor und wird unter Verwendung von Methoden der qualitativen Sozialforschung durchgeführt. Im Ergebnis sollen Effizienzfaktoren ermittelt und schließlich Handlungsempfehlungen für die Implementation von ressort- und grenzübergreifenden Planungsprozessen in komplexen politischen Systemen abgeleitet werden.
CULT-STRAT will establish a scientific reference for developing strategies for policy and decision-makers on European and national levels within the CAFE Programme and for heritage managers for strategic decisions at local level. It will do this through a choice of material indicators and pollution threshold levels based on best available scientific data including deterioration models, spatial distribution and mapping of pollutants and of stock of materials at risk, cost estimates, comparison studies off different conservation approaches. Damage caused to objects of cultural heritage belongs to the most serious among the detrimental effects of anthropogenic air pollutants as it endangers a vital part of the European identity. There is therefore an urgent need to include the impact of pollutants on cultural heritage alongside the human health and parts of the ecosystem that are already concerned in the EU Directives on urban air quality. This is especially relevant for the CAFE (Clean Air for Europe) programme of the Commission and the Community interventions through the 'Culture 2000' framework programme and the structural funds. The overall aim is to identify material indicators and threshold levels of pollutants to be used for development of strategies for sustainable maintenance and preventive conservation of European cultural heritage and air quality policy to reduce damage. The models will permit ranking of the effects of pollutants on corrosion and soiling of materials. The air pollution models will be related to local fluxes, including indoor concentrations. The stock of cultural heritage materials at risk in selected areas (Paris, Rome, Florence, Prague, Madrid, and Berlin) will be used for assessment and mapping of areas where cultural heritage objects are endangered. Prime Contractor: Korrosionsinstitutet Sci AB, R&D Department Atmospheric Corrosion, Stockholm SE.
In September 2009, the third Research Programme for the Geological Disposal of Radioactive Waste (OnderzoeksProgramma Eindberging Radioactief Afval, or OPERA) 2011-2016 was initiated. The aim of the research programme is to evaluate the existing safety and feasibility studies (the Safety Case). For many industrial risk-bearing activities it is required to review the permits and accompanying safety analyses on a regular basis (every 5 to 10 years). This review is made using new insights and looks at possible modifications to company management. The reviews conducted regarding the feasibility and safety of geological disposal for radioactive waste are now over 10 to 20 years old; it is important to periodically re-evaluate them and take into account new developments. In work package 7, Scenario development and Performance Assessment, ten tasks are defined. All methods and instruments that are required for the safety assessments in the Safety Case are defined, developed and documented. For these safety assessments, scenarios need to be identified and represented. The OPAP-I project will define and build the technical and methodological backbone that enables the safety assessment of the OPERA Safety Case. The OPAP-I project covers all six tasks of WP7 tendered in the 1st Call and forms a consistent package that efficiently addresses the links between all tasks. The project will be executed by an international, interdisciplinary consortium of NRG, TNO, SCK-CEN and GRS, which many years of experience will guarantees the successful application of state-of-the-art methodologies. The project is structured in a way that it enables the integration of the scientific results of all supporting OPERA WPs and translates these results into the technical format necessary to execute PA calculations. The main outcome of the OPAP-I project will be a list of safety and performance indicators and their accompanying probability distributions, calculated for all scenarios. This list enables the OPERA programme to make a statement on the longterm safety of a future disposal of radioactive waste in Boom Clay. Task 7.1.1 Scenario development - Task 7.1.2 Scenario representation - Task 7.2.1 PA model for radionuclide migration in Boom Clay - Task 7.3.1 Safety and Performance Indicators calculation methodology - Task 7.3.2 Methods for the uncertainty analysis - Task 7.3.3 Safety assessment calculations.
The Integrated Project (WATCH) which will bring together the hydrological, water resources and climate communities to analyse, quantify and predict the components of the current and future global water cycles and related water resources states, evaluate their uncertainties and clarify the overall vulnerability of global water resources related to the main societal and economic sectors. WATCH project will: - analyse and describe the current global water cycle, especially causal chains leading to observable changes in extremes (droughts and floods) - evaluate how the global water cycle and its extremes respond to future drivers of global change (including greenhouse gas release and land cover change) - evaluate feedbacks in the coupled system as they affect t he global water cycle - evaluate the uncertainties in the predictions of coupled climate-hydrological- land-use models using a combination of model ensembles and observations - develop an enhanced (modelling) framework to assess the future vulnerability of water as a resource, and in relation to water/climate related vulnerabilities and risks of the major water related sectors, such as agriculture, nature and utilities (energy, industry and drinking water sector) - provide comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessments and predictions of the vulnerability of the water resources and water-/climate-related vulnerabilities and risks for the 21st century - collaborate intensively with the key leading research groups on water cycle and water resources in USA and Japan - collaborate intensively in dissemination of its scientific results with major research programmes worldwide (WCRP, IGBP) - collaborate intensively in dissemination of its practical and applied results with major water resources and water management platforms and professional organisations worldwide (WWC, IWA) and at a scale of 5 selected river basins in Europe. Prime Contractor: Natural Environment Research Council, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Swindon; United Kingdom.
The proposed regulation concerning the registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction of chemicals (REACH) requires demonstration of the safe manufacture of chemicals and their safe use throughout the supply chain. There is therefore a strong need to strengthen and advance human and environmental risk assessment knowledge and practices with regard to chemicals, in accord with the precautionary principle. The goal of the project OSIRIS is to develop integrated testing strategies (ITS) fit for REACH that enable to significantly increase the use of non-testing information for regulatory decision making, and thus minimise the need for animal testing. To this end, operational procedures will be developed, tested and disseminated that guide a transparent and scientifically sound evaluation of chemical substances in a risk-driven, context-specific and substance-tailored (RCS) manner. The envisaged decision theory framework includes alternative methods such as chemical and biological read-across, in vitro results, in vivo information on analogues, qualitative and quantitative structure-activity relationships, thresholds of toxicological concern and exposure-based waiving, and takes into account cost-benefit analyses as well as societal risk perception. It is based on the new REACH paradigm to move away from extensive standard testing to a more intelligent, substance-tailored approach. The work will be organised in five interlinked research pillars (chemical domain, biological domain, exposure, integration strategies and tools, case studies), with a particular focus on more complex, long-term and high-cost endpoints. Case studies will demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the new ITS methodologies, and provide guidance in concrete form. To ensure optimal uptake of the results obtained in this project, end-users in industry and regulatory authorities will be closely involved in monitoring and in providing specific technical contributions to this project.
The aim of 2-FUN is to provide decision-makers with a Decision Support System (DSS) that supports the analysis of current and future trends in environmental conditions and pressures causing health problems, and to evaluate and rank the management options of the composing risk factors using a cost-benefit evaluation. The DSS and its associated Geographical Information System (GIS) will offer a wide range of functionalities allowing the generation of results of high concern for health risk assessment: building of long-term environmental and socio-economic scenarios, exposure and effects mapping, provision of uncertainty margins, identification of sensitive pathways and risks, integrated risk indices and monetary values mapping, ranking of risk factors. Specific scientific actions will be set up to feed the DSS with methodologies/databases/models/ software on the following topics: Building future realistic socio-economic, environmental and health scenarios; Integrated exposure, effect and monetary assessment of multi-stressors and multi-routes; Integration of childrens issues in health risk assessments; Environment-related health indicators for relevant ranking and comparison of risk factors and monetary valuation of health effects; Development of uncertainty models for further health management; Implementation of a full-chain approach for health risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. 2-FUN also proposes to engage in a structural dialogue with all interested parties (stakeholders, policy-makers and researchers) to monitor large environment- and health-focused scientific initiatives and to incorporate stakeholders vision and needs regarding the development of tools for health risk assessment. The DSS will be tested on contrasted case studies covering a wide range of temporal, spatial, sectorial, environmental, societal contexts requiring comprehensive costbenefit analysis and able to provide policy-makers with relevant and easy-to-use information. Prime Contractor: Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques; Paris; France.
Trees use water while storing carbon; tree crops replace natural forest while reducing poverty; market-oriented monocultures compete with risk-averse poly-cultures, trading off income and risk; plantations displace smallholders, trading off local rights and income opportunities; national reforestation programs use public resources, promising an increase in environmental services that may not happen. Trees in all these examples are closely linked to tradeoffs and conflict, exaggerated expectations and strong disappointment. Integrated Natural Resource Management (INRM) requires site-specific understanding of tradeoffs between and among the goods and services that trees in agro-ecosystems can provide. It is thus costly when compared to readily scalable green revolution technologies. Replicable, cost-effective approaches are needed in the hands of local professionals with interdisciplinary skills to help stakeholders sort out positive and negative effects of trees in multi-use landscapes ( agroforestry) on livelihoods, water and (agro) biodiversity, associated rights and rewards, and thus on Millenium Development Goals (reducing poverty - promoting equitable forms of globalisation - building peace). ICRAF in SE Asia has developed a negotiation support approach for reducing conflict in multi-use landscapes. The approach aims to bridge perception gaps between stakeholders (with their local, public/policy and scientific knowledge paradigms), increase recognition and respect for these multiple knowledge systems, provide quantification of tradeoffs between economic and environmental impacts at landscape scale, and allow for joint analysis of plausible scenarios. Building on the achievements of participatory rural appraisal, we can now add quantitative strengths with the toolbox for tradeoff analysis. The TUL-SEA project (NARS, ICRAF and Hohenheim) will in 3 years lead to: Tests of cost-effectiveness of appraisal tools for tradeoff analysis in a wide range of agroforestry contexts in SE Asia represented by 15 INRM case studies; building on ASB (Alternatives to Slash and Burn; http://www.asb.cgiar.org/) benchmark areas with significant positive local impacts on poverty, environment and peace (www.icraf.org/sea/Publications/searchpub.asp?publishid=1290); Enhanced national capacity in trade-off analysis, information-based INRM negotiations and ex ante impact assessments; An integrated toolbox ready for widespread application. The toolbox consists of instruments for rapid appraisal of landscape, tenure conflict, market, hydrology, agrobiodiversity and carbon stocks, and simulation models for scenario analysis of landscape-level impacts of changes in market access or agroforestry technology.
MODELKEY comprises a mulitdisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked and verified predictive modelling tools as well as state-of-the-art effect-assessment and analytical methods generally applicable to European freshwater and marine ecosystems: 1) to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of traditional and recently evolving pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems and their biodiversity at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale, 2) to provide early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo, 3) to provide a better understanding of cause-effect-relationships between changes in biodiversity and the ecological status, as addressed by the Water Framework Directive, and the impact of environmental pollution as causative factor, 4) to provide methods for state-of-the-art risk assessment and decision support systems for the selection of the most efficient management options to prevent effects on biodiversity and to prioritise contamination sources and contaminated sites, 5) to strengthen the scientific knowledge on an European level in the field of impact assessment of environmental pollution on aquatic eco-systems and their biodiversity by extensive training activities and knowledge dissemination to stakeholders and the scientific community. This goal shall be achieved by combining innovative predictive tools for modelling exposure on a river basin scale including the estuary and the coastal zone, for modelling effects on higher levels of biological organisation with powerful assessment tools for the identification of key modes of action, key toxicants and key parameters determining exposure. The developed tools will be verified in case studies representing European key areas including Mediterranean, Western and Central European river basins. An end-user-directed decision support system will be provided for cost-effective tool selection and appropriate risk and site prioritisation.
The project main goal is to contribute to our understanding of tsunami processes in the Euro-Mediterranean region, to the tsunami hazard and risk assessment and to identifying the best strategies for reduction of tsunami risk. Focus will be posed on the gaps and needs for the implementation of an efficient tsunami early warning system (TEWS) in the Euro- Mediterranean area, which is a high-priority task in consideration that no tsunami early warning system is today in place in the Euro-Mediterranean countries. The main items addressed by the project may be summarised as follows. The present Europe tsunami catalogue will be improved and updated, and integrated into a world-wide catalogue (WP1). A systematic attempt will be made to identify and to characterise the tsunamigenic seismic (WP2) and non-seismic (WP3) sources throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region. An analysis of the present-day earth observing and monitoring (seismic, geodetic and marine) systems and data processing methods will be carried out in order to identify possible adjustments required for the development of a TEWS, with focus on new algorithms suited for real-time detection of tsunami sources and tsunamis (WP4). The numerical models currently used for tsunami simulations will be improved mainly to better handle the generation process and the tsunami impact at the coast (WP5). The project Consortium has selected ten test areas in different countries. Here innovative probabilistic and statistical approaches for tsunami hazard assessment (WP6), up-to-date and new methods to compute inundation maps (WP7) will be applied. Here tsunami scenario approaches will be envisaged; vulnerability and risk will be assessed; prevention and mitigation measures will be defined also by the advise of end users that are organised in an End User Group (WP8). Dissemination of data, techniques and products will be a priority of the project (WP9). Prime Contractor: Alma Mater Studiorum-Universita di Bologna; Bologna, Italy.
Based on a better understanding of terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem functioning ALARM will develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks in order to minimise negative direct and indirect human impacts. Research will focus on assessment and forecast of changes in biodiversity and in structure, function, and dynamics of ecosystems. This relates to ecosystem services and includes the relationship between society, economy and biodiversity. In particular, risks arising from climate change, environmental chemicals, biological invasions and pollinator loss in the context of current and future European land use patterns will be assessed. There is an increasing number of case studies on the environmental risks subsequent to each of these impacts. This yields an improved understanding on how these act individually and affect living systems. Whereas the knowledge on how they act in concert is poor and ALARM will be the first research initiative with the critical mass needed to deal with such aspects of combined impacts and their consequences. So far the ALARM consortium combines the expertise of 54 partners from 26 countries (19 EU, Bulgaria, Romania, Israel, Switzerland, Russia, Chile, and Argentina). Within this call we propose to include 16 new TTC partners from Russia, Belarus, China, South-Africa, India, Croatia, Ukraine, Serbia & Montenegro, The Philippines, Bolivia, Guatemala, and Mexico, in order to complement expertise and geographical coverage of the existing consortium.
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