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Objective: The science of complex systems distinguishes linear from non-linear dynamics. Simpler systems can often be satisfactory described by linear models, but complex systems require non-linear models that can capture more of the characteristics of such systems, such as thresholds, feedback loops, avalanche effects, and irreversibility. Linear systems can be validated by aligning models to the past and using the model to predict the future. Non-linear systems, however, are often time-asymmetric - they can be explained with the wisdom of hindsight, but are not always predictable. For example, systems may respond sharply to minor perturbations, and the quality of this response is a measure of the system resilience. In practice, non-linear dynamics are significant both at the micro-scale of small history and at the macro-scale of deep time. The brilliant young scientist, for example, may experience a series of epiphanies that change his/her understanding and behaviour in an unpredictable and irreversible way. The scientific community as a whole may experience an innovation-cascade that has a similar effect on a much larger scale. Current models of climate change and carbon emission assume the immediate past is a reasonable guide to the future. They struggle to represent the complex causal structures and time-asymmetries of many socio-natural systems. COMPLEX will integrate the quasi-classic models of meso-scale processes with our best understanding of fine-grained space-time patterns and the system-flips that are likely to occur in the long interval between now and 2050. We believe the sub-national region is the key point of entry for studying climate change and its cause-effect interrelations. It is small enough to be sensitive to local factors, large enough to interact with supra-national agencies and stable enough to be historically and culturally distinctive. In addition to undertaking case studies in Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, Spain and Italy, We will develop a suite of modelling tools and decision-support systems to inform national and supra-national policy and support communities across Europe working to make the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Objective: The project will construct a theoretical framework for the analysis of resource efficiency, with detailed comparison of the trends and policies at EU and Member State (MS) level, cross-country econometric analysis to derive resource-reduction cost curves, and an analysis of business barriers to resource efficiency; thereby developing an enhanced understanding of the drivers of inefficient resource use. This will lead to an exploration of new concepts and paradigms that can bring about a radical increase in resource efficiency, and a vision for a resource-efficient economy in the EU, with suggestions also for new more resource-efficient business models for firms, and ideas for a global governance regime that can promote resource-efficient economies among the EU's trading partners and more widely will be explored. From its new vision for a resource-efficient Europe, the project will propose new policy mixes, business models and mechanisms of global governance through which resource-efficient economies may be promoted. This will lead in turn to intensive work on creating, modelling and visualising scenarios for the emergence of resource-efficient economies, through linking quantitative economic and ecological models, and simulating the policies and policy mixes derived in the earlier work, supplemented with appropriate LCA analysis for selected products and sectors, to ensure that the policies and business models in the scenarios lead to adequate absolute decoupling of economic activity from resource use and environmental degradation. The scenarios and associated policy analysis will be given an integrated interpretation across economic, ecological and social dimensions. The project will be explicitly geared to support policy efforts and initiatives on resource efficiency in the European Commission, and will involve a wide range of stakeholders from business, the policy world, and NGOs. The results will be widely disseminated in a variety of innovative ways.
Objective: The recent devastating earthquakes and associated tsunamis in Japan, Indonesia, and Haiti, which killed more than half a million people, highlighted how mankind is still far away from a satisfactory level of seismic risk mitigation. Among the regions around the Mediterranean Sea for which earthquakes represent a major threat to their social and economic development, the area around the Marmara Sea, one of the most densely populated parts of Europe, is subjected to a high level of seismic hazard. For this region the MARSITE project is proposed with the aim of assessing the state of the art of seismic risk evaluation and management at European level. This will be the starting point to move a step forward towards new concepts of risk mitigation and management by long-term monitoring activities carried out both on land and at sea. The MARSITE project aims to coordinate research groups with different scientific skills (from seismology to engineering to gas geochemistry) in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed both in the Marmara Sea and in the surrounding urban and country areas. The project plans to coordinate initiatives to collect multidisciplinary data, to be shared, interpreted and merged in consistent theoretical and practical models suitable for the implementation of good practices to move the necessary information to the end users.
Objective: The energy demand of a large number of European users could be satisfied with good efficiency by means of micro CHP systems. In this context, countries with Mediterranean climate show two specific features: high (and growing) cooling load and high relative humidity, which requires further energy for decreasing indoor temperatures. The main objective of MITES is the development of an innovating micro scale tri-generation system, equipped with an air desiccant system (a gel-wheel and a liquid-membrane DEC technology will be tested) adapted to the Mediterranean conditions. The prototype will be installed in a building owned by the coordinator (AMG Palermo, local gas utility). Thus its output will be around 30 kWel and 50 kWth. The performance's monitoring should lead to the optimisation of: production costs, energy efficiency and CO2 emissions. Description of the work: The proposed work consists of a set of interconnected activities: - design of the tri-generation architecture; - test of two types (solid and liquid) DEC technologies; - installation of the tri-generation system; - monitoring and evaluation (S and T and economic); - Life Cycle Analysis of the tri-generation system; - a wide market survey to be carried out at European level, together with energy audit of 50 potential users located in Sicily, will give detailed information about the most suitable configuration of the tri-generation system for meeting the market needs. - dissemination of results. Expected Results and Exploitation Plans: The development of MITES Project - to be carried out by a partners' consortium made up of a local gas utility and two research centres - will be completed in three years. S and T results should demonstrate the energy, economic and environmental effectiveness of such a tri-generation system specifically conceived for the Mediterranean conditions. The optimised configuration of the tri-generator combined with the DEC system should be produced at industrial scale and launched at European and Mediterranean level. The database coming from the European market survey could be useful for further actions in CHP filed. Project's outcomes will be disseminated through various deliverables and media (brochure, guidelines and software tool for technical design, final conference, web site). Prime Contractor: Azienda Speciale AMG, Palermo; Palermo/Italy.
Objective: The aim of this project is to turn 4 core communities (Germany, Austria, Luxemburg, Poland) with clearly defined system borders and 14 - 20.000 inhabitants each into CONCERTO communities. A mix of different EE and RES demonstrations (including refurbishment of old buildings, eco-buildings and polygeneration, all underpinned with complete business plans) will allow to avoid about 300 GWh/yr end energy from fossil sources, thus avoiding 94.000 tons CO2/yr, and saving 22.9 mio Euro/yr of disbursements for extra-communal electricity and heat deliveries. The application of the Decentralised Energy Management System (DEMS) will allow for local and inter-communal operation, monitoring and control of energy consumption, storage and generation units and grids, including DSM and LCP, thereby exploring a EE potential of at least 5Prozent. The target in RES coverage for 2010 is of resp. 39 to 62Prozent of the then remaining electricity and heat demand. EnerMAS, a low-threshold version of the European environmental management system.
The proposed regulation concerning the registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction of chemicals (REACH) requires demonstration of the safe manufacture of chemicals and their safe use throughout the supply chain. There is therefore a strong need to strengthen and advance human and environmental risk assessment knowledge and practices with regard to chemicals, in accord with the precautionary principle. The goal of the project OSIRIS is to develop integrated testing strategies (ITS) fit for REACH that enable to significantly increase the use of non-testing information for regulatory decision making, and thus minimise the need for animal testing. To this end, operational procedures will be developed, tested and disseminated that guide a transparent and scientifically sound evaluation of chemical substances in a risk-driven, context-specific and substance-tailored (RCS) manner. The envisaged decision theory framework includes alternative methods such as chemical and biological read-across, in vitro results, in vivo information on analogues, qualitative and quantitative structure-activity relationships, thresholds of toxicological concern and exposure-based waiving, and takes into account cost-benefit analyses as well as societal risk perception. It is based on the new REACH paradigm to move away from extensive standard testing to a more intelligent, substance-tailored approach. The work will be organised in five interlinked research pillars (chemical domain, biological domain, exposure, integration strategies and tools, case studies), with a particular focus on more complex, long-term and high-cost endpoints. Case studies will demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the new ITS methodologies, and provide guidance in concrete form. To ensure optimal uptake of the results obtained in this project, end-users in industry and regulatory authorities will be closely involved in monitoring and in providing specific technical contributions to this project.
Reactive Hydride Composites reveal great potential as hydrogen storage materials as they overcome the thermodynamic limitations hindering the use of light-weight complex hydrides. However, their sorption kinetics is still slow due to the fact that the hydrogen sorption process takes place within complex solid state reactions. It is aim of this project to explore the fundamental mechanisms involved in these reactions. For this, experimental studies on sorption kinetics, thermodynamics, crystal structure and electronic properties of the nano-structured materials are cross-linked to ab-initio calculations and theoretical modelling. The results will provide a basis to improve material properties and to develop new catalysts for hydrogen sorption. Finally, the optimization of synthesis methods and in particular the up-scaling of hydrogen storage materials preparation will be explored in collaboration with manufacturers.
Objective: The objective is to develop a low-cost, low temperature, portable direct methanol fuel cell device. It will also offer limited operation on ethanol fuel and will be of compact construction and modular design. The development will include novel proton exchange membranes, anode and cathode electro catalysts and fully optimised multilayer membrane electrode assemblies. New low-cost proton exchange membranes will be developed to reduce the methanol crossover rate through the electrolyte to levels significantly lower than that of currently available materials (e.g. Nafion). New electro catalyst materials will be developed to enhance the low temperature methanol (and ethanol) electro-oxidation activity of the anode. Catalyst development for the cathode will focus on enhancing the oxygen reduction activity of platinum electro catalyst and increasing its selectivity to enhance methanol tolerance. The structure of the electro catalyst and electrode layers will be optimised to promote efficient operation at low temperatures with practical flows and pressures. System optimisation, simplification and miniaturization will be carried out. The final performance objectives will be: single cells operating at 0.5V / cell at 0.2 Acm-2 at 30-60 C (in atmospheric pressure air). Prototypes of 100 and later 500 W stacks, operating at low temperatures with aimed electrical characteristics of 40 A/12.5 V, will be the targets of the project. The effective operation at this low temperature is particularly challenging. Additionally a conceptual study for up-scale will be supplied. A narrow collaboration between research centres and industry will make possible a rapid exploitation of the new components and system developments. A SME will be responsible for the integration and will deliver the prototypes. The potential market for portable fuel cells includes weather stations, medical devices, signal units, auxiliary power units, gas sensors and security cameras.
The scale of influence of global change and the added value of co-ordinating the scientific activities of the EU and North American countries to assess, predict and mitigate the effects on marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic and their services is the justification for the development of the BASIN SSA. An important step towards such a co-ordinated approach is the development of an implementation plan where by jointly funded international projects can be supported. The development of such a plan is the first key goal of BASIN. The second goal of BASIN is to develop an integrated basin-scale North Atlantic research program, for submission to the EU 7th framework program, US NSF and Canadian NSERC for joint funding. Programmatic goals will be achieved in working groups including experts from both the EU and North America as well as delegates from funding organisations. As a prerequisite for the development of the research proposal, this SSA will (1) assess the status of climate related ecosystem research in the North Atlantic basin and associated shelf seas, (2) identify gaps in systematic observations and process understanding of atmospheric and oceanic parameters, (3) identify the potential for consolidation of long-term observations from EU and international databases for modelling and prediction. The BASIN research program will focus on: Resolving the natural variability, potential impacts and feedbacks of global change on the structure, function and dynamics of ecosystems; Improving the understanding of marine ecosystem functioning; Developing ecosystem based management strategies. Hence, BASIN will contribute significantly to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) 10-Year Implementation Plan via the development of comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained observations of the Earth System, improved monitoring of the state of the Earth, increased understanding of Earth processes, and enhanced prediction.
Under the 2003 EU Greek presidency, cooperation with Balkan countries on environmental issues was identified as a priority of the EU/Balkan Action Plan. Large-scale co-operation is essential for effective action in the vulnerable Mediterranean and Black Sea coastal zones. During the last 50 years both areas suffered major changes; as semi-enclosed basins, both Seas are ultra-sensitive to anthropogenic stress and to climate change. An EU Presidency Conference on Sustainable Development in the Mediterranean/Black Sea (May 2003), revealed major gaps in management structures, scientific strategies and identified a diversity of environmental issues to be resolved through priority-focused RTD cooperation. Yet, while pressure on the resources of the two seas increases and the potential impact of climate change on coastal and deep-sea resources remains unknown, the two seas have never been jointly studied as systems of interacting basins and ecosystems. The proposal outlines collaboration and clustering schemes involving environmental, economic and scientific organisations in Mediterranean, Black Sea and other EU nations, in order to create synergies in networking and exchanges at several levels, addressing for the first time the system of interconnected basins as one, based on the integration of, both horizontally and vertically, natural scientists and economists. These will: 1) Create an international, interdisciplinary platform coordinating the region's scientific potential in order to prepare RTD projects, based on a Science Plan for the region, securing sustainable development; 2) Focus on natural and anthropogenic pressures exerted upon the functioning of the ecosystem; 3) Reinforce RTD capacity by setting up an environment/resource monitoring network in the light of existing observation networks of different scopes. Prime Contractor: Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Oceanography, Anavyssos, GR.
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