In the last decades agricultural policy has gained increasingly in complexity. Nowadays it influences the food and agricultural sector from the global market down to the farm level. Widespread research questions, like the impact of the WTO negotiations on the farm structure, most often require comprehensive modeling frameworks. Thus, different types of models are utilized according to their comparative advantages and combined in a strategically useful way to more accurately represent micro and macro aspects of the food and agricultural sector. Consequently, in recent years we have seen an increase in the development and application of model linkages. Given this background, the overall objective of this subproject is a systematic sensitivity analysis of model linkages that gradually involves more and more characteristics of the linkage and the corresponding transfer of results between models. In addition, the project aims to answer the following specific question: How does structural change at the farm level influence aggregate supply and technical progress? Under which conditions is it possible to derive macro-relationships from micro-relationships? How does the aggregation level influence the model results and how can possible problems be overcome? This procedure is used to quantify the effects and to derive conditions for optimal interaction of the connected models. The analysis is based on the general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the farm group model FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System) which are employed in conjunction to analyze the effects of WTO negotiations on the farm level.
Organotin and especially butyltin compounds are used for a variety of applications, e.g. as biocides, stabilizers, catalysts and intermediates in chemical syntheses. Tributyltin (TBT) compounds exhibit the greatest toxicity of all organotins and have even been characterized as one of the most toxic groups of xenobiotics ever produced and deliberately introduced into the environment. TBT is not only used as an active biocidal compound in antifouling paints, which are designed to prevent marine and freshwater biota from settlement on ship hulls, harbour and offshore installations, but also as a biocide in wood preservatives, textiles, dispersion paints and agricultural pesticides. Additionally, it occurs as a by-product of mono- (MBT) and dibutyltin (DBT) compounds, which are used as UV stabilizer in many plastics and for other applications. Triphenyltin (TPT) compounds are also used as the active biocide in antifouling paints outside Europe and furthermore as an agricultural fungicide since the early 1960s to combat a range of fungal diseases in various crops, particularly potato blight, leaf spot and powdery mildew on sugar beet, peanuts and celery, other fungi on hop, brown rust on beans, grey moulds on onions, rice blast and coffee leaf rust. Although the use of TBT and TPT was regulated in many countries world-wide from restrictions for certain applications to a total ban, these compounds are still present in the environment. In the early 1970s the impact of TBT on nontarget organisms became apparent. Among the broad variety of malformations caused by TBT in aquatic animals, molluscs have been found to be an extremely sensitive group of invertebrates and no other pathological condition produced by TBT at relative low concentrations rivals that of the imposex phenomenon in prosobranch gastropods speaking in terms of sensitivity. TBT induces imposex in marine prosobranchs at concentrations as low as 0,5 ng TBT-Sn/L. Since 1993, for the littorinid snail Littorina littorea a second virilisation phenomenon, termed intersex, is known. In female specimens affected by intersex the pallial oviduct is transformed of towards a male morphology with a final supplanting of female organs by the corresponding male formations. Imposex and intersex are morphological alterations caused by a chronic exposure to ultra-trace concentrations of TBT. A biological effect monitoring offers the possibility to determine the degree of contamination with organotin compounds in the aquatic environment and especially in coastal waters without using any expensive analytical methods. Furthermore, the biological effect monitoring allows an assessment of the existing TBT pollution on the basis of biological effects. Such results are normally more relevant for the ecosystem than pure analytical data. usw.
Salinity reduces the productivity of cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) through osmotic and ionic effects. For given atmospheric conditions we hypothesize the existence of an optimal canopy structure at which water use efficiency is maximal and salt accumulation per unit of dry matter production is minimal. This canopy structure optimum can be predicted by integrating physiological processes over the canopy using a functional-structural plant model (FSPM). This model needs to represent the influence of osmotic stress on plant morphology and stomatal conductance, the accumulation of toxic ions and their dynamics in the different compartments of the system, and their toxic effects in the leaf. Experiments will be conducted to parameterize an extended cucumber FSPM. In in-silico experiments with the FSPM we attempt to identify which canopy structure could lead to maximum long-term water use efficiency with minimum ionic stress. The results from in-silico experiments will be evaluated by comparing different canopy structures in greenhouses. Finally, the FSPM will be used to investigate to which extent the improvement of individual mechanisms of salt tolerance like reduced sensitivity of stomatal conductance or leaf expansion can contribute to whole-plant salt tolerance.
In Vivo und in vitro Verabreichung von Nahrungsmittelzusatzstoffen (Tartrazin, Gelborange, Amaranth, Benzoesaeure, Sorbinsaeure, Na-Disulfit, K-Disulfit, Glutamat) und von Nahrungsmitteln (Ei, Milch, Nuesse, Fisch, Rohkost, Fleisch, Mehlsorten) an Patienten mit Verdacht auf entsprechende Unvertraeglichkeiten. Symptome: Kopf- und Bauchschmerzen, Asthma, Rhinitis, Diarrhoe, Urticaria, anaphylaktischer Schock. Mit Hilfe der in vitro Provokationen werden Korrelationen zwischen Mediatorenprofilen und der klinischen Symptomatologie hergestellt. Ziel der Untersuchung: Etablierung eines validen, nicht invarsiven, den Patienten nicht gefaehrdenden diagnostischen Verfahrens zur Objektivierung der nahrungsmittelinduzierten pseudoallergischen Reaktionen.
Our long term activities aim at a functional understanding of alpine plant life. Overall our research shifted gradually from studying resource acquisition (e.g. photosynthesis) toward resource investment and questions of developement. As with treeline, sink activity seems to be the major determinant of growth. A common misconception associated with alpine plant life finds its expression in the use of the terms 'stress' and 'limitation'. See the critique in: Körner C (1998) Alpine plants: stressed or adapted? In: Press MC, Scholes JD, Barker MG (eds.) Physiological Plant Ecology. Blackwell Science , 297-311. Ongoing experimental work: The influence of photoperiod on growth and development in high elevation taxa (Ph.D. by Franziska Keller in cooperation with the Dept. of Geography, University of Fribourg). We test, whether and which species are responsive to earlier snow melt. It appears there exists a suite of different sensitivities, suggesting biodiversity shifts. We also tested the influence of nutrient addition on high elevation pioneer plants and run a longer term project on the interactive effect on sheep tramplng, nitrogen deposition and warming as part of the Swiss National Project NFP 48. A Europe-wide assessment of ground temperatures in alpine grassland is part of ALPNET (see associated organisations). The assessment provides a basis for comparing biodiversity in alpine biota from 69 to 37 degree of northern latitude. (Nagy et al. (2003) Ecological Studies, Vol. 167. 577 p. Springer, Berlin). A synthesis of research in functional ecology of alpine plants over the past 100 years was published in 1999.
Current and future global warming will cause the degradation of mountain permafrost, which may strongly influence the stability of permafrost slopes or rock walls with potentially hazardous consequences. Due to the strong heterogeneity of both the thermal regime and the ground composition of mountain permafrost, its response to atmospheric forcing can however be highly variable for different landforms and within short distances. The spatial distribution of ice and liquid water is important for determining the sensitivity of a specific permafrost occurrence to climate change because of their large influence on the pace of temperature changes (by effects of latent heat) and their importance for geotechnical properties of the ground. Detailed knowledge of the material properties and internal structures of frozen ground is therefore an important prerequisite to determine the sensitivity of permafrost to climate change. Except for the active layer ice and water contents and their temporal and spatial variability usually cannot be measured directly. Geophysical methods are sensitive for the ice and liquid water content in the ground. With the proposed collaboration, two similar but complementary approaches to quantify the composition of the ground based on 2D sections of geophysical data will be combined for an improved determination of ice and water contents in permafrost regions. The so-called 4-phase model (4PM) is based on two simple petrophysical relationships for electrical resistivity and seismic velocity and estimates volumetric fractions of ice, water, and air within the pore volume of a rock matrix by jointly using complementary data sets from electric and seismic measurements. Due to inherent ambiguities in the model it is still restricted to specific cases and often allows only a rough estimation of the phase fractions. Major drawbacks of the current 4PM comprise the unsatisfactory discrimination between rock and ice and its under-determinedness, requiring the prescription of the porosity and further parameters. The so-called RSANN model (developed and used by the host institution) uses the technique of simulated annealing (a Monte-Carlo-type stochastic simulation approach) as an optimization tool for the integration of electrical resistivity and P-wave velocity to derive 2D sections of porosity, water saturation and volumetric water content. The simulated annealing technique allows - due to its iterative procedure - more parameters to be predicted instead of being prescribed as in the 4PM. The objective of the proposed collaboration is to combine the advantages of the two algorithms (4PM and RSANN) to overcome the shortcomings of the 4PM in order to improve the reliability of the determined ice and liquid water contents. (...)
Global climate change in cryogenic regions has dominated the research agenda recently, as investigators seek ways of identifying the hazards to infrastructure in cold regions to establish distinct uncertainties through a risk based consideration of sensitivity and consequences and thereby mitigate the risk of permafrost degradation. The latest IPCC report states that temperature increased at the top of the permafrost layer in the Arctic by up to 3 C since the 1980s. The permafrost base has been thawing at rates of up to 0.04 m/yr, permafrost degradation is causing changes in land surface characteristics and drainage systems and snow cover has decreased in most regions. This has been greatest at lower elevations, e.g. in Switzerland. Melting massive ice or degrading permafrost is becoming increasingly susceptible to causing initiation of slope instabilities and debris flows, having caused the 1997 Val Pola debris flows in the Italian Alps. Recent instabilities in the Vallée du Du Durnand in Valais and the Bérard Rock Glacier in France, both in 2006, emphasise the growing concern. Clear risks were also identified in Turtmanntal, Val d'Anniviers and Mattertal, where some rock glacier features indicated formation of crevasses and depressions at critical positions in the landform and increased risk of failure through the body of the mountain permafrost. Knowledge of the evolving thermal state and internal structure, as well as the response of permafrost soils to a gradual warming cycle, is necessary. This project focuses on the variations of geotechnical response of Alpine permafrost with time and temperature. The time effects are important, since a rock glacier will flow or creep downhill. Landforms have changed in the smaller rock glaciers in the West Alps, where these are particularly sensitive to warming scenarios. Clearly this may lead to instability. The specific goals are: o to investigate artificially frozen soils in the laboratory to understand the relative influences of stresses, soil-ice content, particle size and shape, strain rate and temperature on the strength and stiffness, particularly within the thawing zone, o to obtain equivalent strength and stiffness data from stored (and future) cored samples of Alpine Permafrost and to compare with those from artificial frozen soil, o to establish relationships between key parameters for both artificial and real mountain permafrost, o to test an existing constitutive law to represent the thermo-hydro-mechanical behaviour of Alpine permafrost, o to obtain relevant parameters for future input to the constitutive model and subsequent numerical analysis of the test data.
Without doubt the climate of the Alps has changed during the last decades, which result in a shift of vegetation zones, a new composition of species and most important the duration of the vegetation period. A trend analysis based on data of the Swiss phenological network showed an earlier flowering, bud burst and leaf unfolding in the year, whereas coloring of the leaves occurs later. This trend is not uniform throughout the Alps and exhibits strong regional distinction with a clear north-south difference and a contrast between lowlands and altitudes above 1000m. Although, some sites of the phenological network exist, their spatial distribution in the Alps is sparse. Furthermore, only a few measurement sites exist to monitor the actual vegetation dynamics in the Alps. In most investigations monitoring lasts only some years and only a few sites were observed for more than 10 years. Knowledge about the influence of climate on the spatial variations of vegetation dynamics is needed in order to assess future changes of vegetation due to climate change. Therefore, the proposed project focuses on the derivation of vegetation dynamics (start of season, maximum, end of season, duration of vegetation activity) and their variability in a changing climate and aims at addressing the following scientific questions: a) Does the sensitivity to warming differ across key components of land cover? b) Is there a clear difference between North-South and East-West Alps and elevation zones? c) How strong is the temperature signal in comparison to 'chilling duration' and 'photoperiod'? A homogenous and consistent data set with a high spatial (1.1km2) and temporal (1day) resolution based on data of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board of the NOAA-satellites will be generated. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure for the vegetation activity, will be derived for the years 1987 until 2006 using processing software developed to take into account the special conditions (topography, cloud coverage) of the Alps. The NDVI data set will be used to derive the annual vegetation dynamics with a spatial resolution of 1day (depending on the cloud coverage) and for each pixel. Thus, for the first time vegetated areas in all altitudinal zones and regions of the Alps will be analyzed on their variability of vegetation dynamics. These results are the starting point to identify the most important patterns of vegetation dynamic (start of season, maximum value, duration of maximum values, end of season, duration of season) and climate year-to-year variability. Temperature and precipitation will be taken into account to explain the dependence of vegetation variability on climate. The outcome of the vegetation variability will be compared with the variability of spring onset as obtained from phenological observation networks in order to find out whether phenological observations are representative for a region.
Current climate research is challenged by questions on (i) the characteristics of natural climate variability, (ii) the discrimination from anthropogenic forcing, and (iii) ecological, societal and economic risks. Insight into regional climate change is critically important: Instrumental data and high resolution climate reconstructions show that regional climatic trends and extremes strongly exceed changes reported at hemispheric or global scales. Seasonal to annual, quantitative, regional multi-proxy climate reconstructions are fundamental to assess natural (i.e. pre-anthropogenic), forced and stochastic climate variability. Accurate reconstruction with quantified uncertainties of the 'baseline climate' is the precondition for evaluating the sensitivity of the Earth System to different forcing factors, and validating the results of global and regional, past and future climate modelling. In consequence, one of the hotspots of the international research agenda is to assess natural climate variability of the last 1000 years which encompass the 'Medieval Warm Period' and the 'Little Ice Age'. Among the most fundamental conclusions of recent work is the finding that the structure of past climate change in Europe is very different for each of the four seasons of the year. Most significant are deviations during fall, winter and spring, precisely during the seasons that are poorly or not recorded in natural climate archives. Thus new cold-season proxies are critically important and need to be explored. This is where our project and the new equipment come in. The innovation and novelty of our research is that, besides the classic lake-sediment proxies, Chrysophyte stomatocysts (microfossils produced by 'golden algae') are used for quantitative temperature reconstruction. Recent pioneering work has shown that stomatocysts in Alpine lakes are among the very few proxies and the only 'terrestrial' microfossils that allow quantitative winter/spring temperature reconstructions. This information is unique and has a great potential to evolve into the key parameter for cold-season climate reconstructions. Primary target archive for our research is Lake Silvaplana, a lake with 3500 years of varved sediments. High-quality analysis of stomatocysts requires scanning electron microscopy (acquisition of equipment subject to this proposal). International cutting-edge research calls for continuous, high resolution (annual) sampling. Consequently our research plan has two goals: (i) to optimize the efficiency of data collection with automated image acquisition and off-line image analysis, and (ii) to produce annual winter/spring temperature series for the last 1000 years.
In den zurückliegenden 1.5 Jahren des Projektes konzentrierten sich die Arbeiten auf das erste bereits fertiggestellte vertikale Seismometer-Array des ICDP-GONAF-Observatoriums auf der Tuzla Halbinsel im Südosten Istanbuls. Aufgrund des verbesserten Signal-Rausch-Verhältnisses an den Bohrlochseismometern im Vergleich zu den Oberflächenstationen war es möglich, deutlich mehr M kleiner als 0 Mikrobeben zu detektieren. Diese Messdaten stellten die Grundlage für die bereits durchgeführten seismologischen Studien dar. In der hier beantragten Verlängerung werden wir unsere Erdbebendatenbank für das östliche Marmarameer fortlaufend erweitern, indem wir die im Sommer 2014 fertig gestellten Seismometer-Arrays auf der Armutlu-Halbinsel in die Detektionsalgorithmen integrieren, sowie dann auch weitere vier GONAF-Bohrlocharrays, deren Fertigstellung bis Frühjahr 2015 geplant ist. Es wurden verschiedene Methoden zur Bestimmung oberflächennaher Eigenschaften des Tuzla-Standortes, wie z.B. seismische Geschwindigkeiten und Dämpfung, angewendet und angepasst. Dieselben Methoden werden auf die neuen GONAF-Stationen übertragen, um zu verifizieren, ob die Beobachtungen in Tuzla standortspezifisch, oder auch für andere geologische Formationen repräsentativ sind. Die dann erstmals durchgeführte vergleichende Analyse unterschiedlicher Standorte in der Region wird neue Einblicke geben, um die Auswerteverfahren für die Korrektur von Standort-Effekten weiterzuentwickeln. Dies ist z.B. für eine genaue Abschätzung von Erdbeben-Quellparametern essentiell. Darüber hinaus planen wir, Processing-Methoden des Vertical-Seismic Profiling einzusetzen, um die Zweige der Nordanatolischen Verwerfungszone unterhalb des östlichen Marmarameeres abzubilden (passive fault-zone imaging). Dabei wird die lokale Seismizität genutzt, die in kleiner als 20 km Epizentralentfernung von den GONAF-Stationen in Tiefen von 5 bis 20 km auftritt und an den verschiedenen Tiefenstockwerken der GONAF-Arrays registriert wird. Schließlich werden Wellenformen-Registrierungen von erstmals in 300m Tiefe eingesetzten 3-Komponenten 1Hz MARK Seismometern ausgewertet, unter Anderem um verstärkt S-Wellen-Eigenschaften der Region zu untersuchen.
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