In hydrology, the relationship between water storage and flow is still fundamental in characterizing and modeling hydrological systems. However, this simplification neglects important aspects of the variability of the hydrological system, such as stable or instable states, tipping points, connectivity, etc. and influences the predictability of hydrological systems, both for extreme events as well as long-term changes. We still lack appropriate data to develop theory linking internal pattern dynamics and integral responses and therefore to identify functionally similar hydrological areas and link this to structural features. We plan to investigate the similarities and differences of the dynamic patterns of state variables and the integral response in replicas of distinct landscape units. A strategic and systematic monitoring network is planned in this project, which contributes the essential dynamic datasets to the research group to characterize EFUs and DFUs and thus significantly improving the usual approach of subdividing the landscape into static entities such as the traditional HRUs. The planned monitoring network is unique and highly innovative in its linkage of surface and subsurface observations and its spatial and temporal resolution and the centerpiece of CAOS.
Im letzten Jahrzehnt war der grönländische Eisschild mehreren Extremereignissen ausgesetzt, mit teils unerwartet starken Auswirkungen auf die Oberflächenmassebilanz und den Eisfluss, insbesondere in den Jahren 2010, 2012 und 2015. Einige dieser Schmelzereignisse prägten sich eher lokal aus (wie in 2015), während andere fast die gesamte Eisfläche bedeckten (wie in 2010).Mit fortschreitendem Klimawandel ist zu erwarten, dass extreme Schmelzereignisse häufiger auftreten und sich verstärken bzw. länger anhalten. Bisherige Projektionen des Eisverlustes von Grönland basieren jedoch typischerweise auf Szenarien, die nur allmähliche Veränderungen des Klimas berücksichtigen, z.B. in den Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), wie sie im letzten IPCC-Bericht genutzt wurden. In aktuellen Projektionen werden extreme Schmelzereignisse im Allgemeinen unterschätzt - und welche Konsequenzen dies für den zukünftigen Meeresspiegelanstieg hat, bleibt eine offene Forschungsfrage.Ziel des vorgeschlagenen Projektes ist es, die Auswirkungen extremer Schmelzereignisse auf die zukünftige Entwicklung des grönländischen Eisschildes zu untersuchen. Dabei werden die unmittelbaren und dauerhaften Auswirkungen auf die Oberflächenmassenbilanz und die Eisdynamik bestimmt und somit die Beiträge zum Meeresspiegelanstieg quantifiziert. In dem Forschungsprojekt planen wir zudem, kritische Schwellenwerte in der Häufigkeit, Intensität sowie Dauer von Extremereignissen zu identifizieren, die - sobald sie einmal überschritten sind - eine großräumige Änderung in der Eisdynamik auslösen könnten.Zu diesem Zweck werden wir die dynamische Reaktion des grönländischen Eisschilds in einer Reihe von Klimaszenarien untersuchen, in denen extreme Schmelzereignisse mit unterschiedlicher Wahrscheinlichkeit zu bestimmten Zeitpunkten auftreten, und die Dauer und Stärke prognostisch variiert werden. Um indirekte Effekte durch verstärktes submarines Schmelzen hierbei berücksichtigen zu können, werden wir das etablierte Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) mit dem Linearen Plume-Modell (LPM) koppeln. Das LPM berechnet das turbulente submarine Schmelzen aufgrund von Veränderungen der Meerestemperatur und des subglazialen Ausflusses. Es ist numerisch sehr effizient, so dass das gekoppelte PISM-LPM Modell Ensemble-Läufe mit hoher Auflösung ermöglicht. Folglich kann eine breite Palette von Modellparametern und Klimaszenarien in Zukunftsprojektionen in Betracht gezogen werden.Mit dem interaktiv gekoppelten Modell PISM-LPM werden wir den Beitrag Grönlands zum Meeresspiegelanstieg im 21. Jahrhundert bestimmen, unter Berücksichtigung regionaler Veränderungen von Niederschlag, Oberflächen- und Meerestemperaturen, und insbesondere der Auswirkungen von Extremereignissen. Ein Hauptergebnis wird eine Risikokarte sein, die aufzeigt, in welchen kritischen Regionen Grönlands zukünftige extreme Schmelzereignisse den stärksten Eisverlust zur Folge hätten.
The vegetation of East and South African savannahs has been shaped by the complex interaction of geo-biophysical processes and human impact. For both regions a controversial discussion is pertinent, as to whether massive degradation threatens the sustainability of livelihoods in these regions. Rangeland vegetation is mainly affected by environmental conditions (soil and climate) and by livestock management. Extent and interaction of these drivers are not well understood but have profound impacts on the resilience and vulnerability of these systems to be shifted toward unfavourable degraded or bush encroached states. The project aims to analyse and model rangeland vegetation in response to range management including livestock, soil quality and climatic conditions and to assess the impacts of changes in these conditions on the resilience and vulnerability of rangeland systems. Field measurements, remote sensing of vegetation patterns and dynamics and simulation modelling will be used to understand the dynamics of rangeland vegetation. We will use the 'fast' or 'state' variables potential of pastures to produce palatable biomass, the variability of this production, and the system's potential to recover from disturbance impact as indicators of resilience. 'slow' variables that control (or drive) the 'fast' variables such as management, climate and soil variables are recorded in cooperation with other subprojects as with A1 for soil variables. Results of the project will show which management activities are most favourable for individual regions to sustain plant production in the long term.
The decomposition of terrestrial organic material such as leaf litter represents a fundamental ecosystem function in streams that delivers energy for local and downstream food webs. Although agriculture dominates most regions in Europe and fungicides are applied widely, effects of currently used fungicides on the aquatic decomposer community and consequently the leaf decomposition rate are largely unknown. Also potential compensation of such hypothesised adverse effects due to nutrients or higher average water temperatures associated with climate change are not considered. Moreover, climate change is predicted to alter the community of aquatic decomposers and an open question is, whether this alteration impacts the leaf decomposition rate. The current projects follows a tripartite design to answer these research questions. Firstly, a field study in a vine growing region where fungicides are applied in large amounts will be conducted to whether there is a dose-response relationship between the exposure to fungicides and the leaf decomposition rate. Secondly, experiments in artificial streams with field communities will be carried out to assess potential compensatory mechanisms of nutrients and temperature for effects of fungicides. Thirdly, field experiments with communities exhibiting a gradient of taxa sensitive to climate change will be used to investigate potential climate-related effects on the leaf decomposition rate.
Pflanzen im Allgemeinen und Bäume im Speziellen reagieren sehr sensibel auf klimatische Veränderungen. Der Kohlenstoff- und Wasserhaushalt wird unter Feldbedingungen gemessen und gibt so Aufschluss über physiologische Regelmechanismen (z.B. zwischen Wasserhaushalt und dem Öffnungsgrad der Stomata) oder das Baumwachstum. Mit Hilfe von systemischen Modellen interpretieren wir die ökophysiologischen Messungen und folgern daraus, wie weit sich einzelne Baumarten an veränderte klimatische Bedingungen anpassen können und ab wann artspezifische physiologische Grenzen erreicht werden. Im Wallis wachsen Waldföhren und Flaumeichen zumindest zeitweise am Rande ihrer physiologischen Möglichkeiten. Erste Resultate zeigen, warum die Flaumeiche (Quercus pubescens) unter den herrschenden klimatischen Bedingungen physiologische Vorteile gegenüber der Waldföhre (Pinus sylvestris) hat.
The majority of the worlds forests has undergone some form of management, such as clear-cut or thinning. This management has direct relevance for global climate: Studies estimate that forest management emissions add a third to those from deforestation, while enhanced productivity in managed forests increases the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to act as a sink for carbon dioxide emissions. However, uncertainties in the assessment of these fluxes are large. Moreover, forests influence climate also by altering the energy and water balance of the land surface. In many regions of historical deforestation, such biogeophysical effects have substantially counteracted warming due to carbon dioxide emissions. However, the effect of management on biogeophysical effects is largely unknown beyond local case studies. While the effects of climate on forest productivity is well established in forestry models, the effects of forest management on climate is less understood. Closing this feedback cycle is crucial to understand the driving forces behind past climate changes to be able to predict future climate responses and thus the required effort to adapt to it or avert it. To investigate the role of forest management in the climate system I propose to integrate a forest management module into a comprehensive Earth system model. The resulting model will be able to simultaneously address both directions of the interactions between climate and the managed land surface. My proposed work includes model development and implementation for key forest management processes, determining the growth and stock of living biomass, soil carbon cycle, and biophysical land surface properties. With this unique tool I will be able to improve estimates of terrestrial carbon source and sink terms and to assess the susceptibility of past and future climate to combined carbon cycle and biophysical effects of forest management. Furthermore, representing feedbacks between forest management and climate in a global climate model could advance efforts to combat climate change. Changes in forest management are inevitable to adapt to future climate change. In this process, is it possible to identify win-win strategies for which local management changes do not only help adaptation, but at the same time mitigate global warming by presenting favorable effects on climate? The proposed work opens a range of long-term research paths, with the aim of strengthening the climate perspective in the economic considerations of forest management and helping to improve local decisionmaking with respect to adaptation and mitigation.
Subproject 3 will investigate the effect of shifting from continuously flooded rice cropping to crop rotation (including non-flooded systems) and diversified crops on the soil fauna communities and associated ecosystem functions. In both flooded and non-flooded systems, functional groups with a major impact on soil functions will be identified and their response to changing management regimes as well as their re-colonization capability after crop rotation will be quantified. Soil functions corresponding to specific functional groups, i.e. biogenic structural damage of the puddle layer, water loss and nutrient leaching, will be determined by correlating soil fauna data with soil service data of SP4, SP5 and SP7 and with data collected within this subproject (SP3). In addition to the field data acquired directly at the IRRI, microcosm experiments covering the broader range of environmental conditions expected under future climate conditions will be set up to determine the compositional and functional robustness of major components of the local soil fauna. Food webs will be modeled based on the soil animal data available to gain a thorough understanding of i) the factors shaping biological communities in rice cropping systems, and ii) C- and N-flow mediated by soil communities in rice fields. Advanced statistical modeling for quantification of species - environment relationships integrating all data subsets will specify the impact of crop diversification in rice agro-ecosystems on soil biota and on the related ecosystem services.
Background and Objectives: The project area is located in the Ashanti Region of Ghana / West Africa in the transition zone of the moist semideciduous forest and tropical savannah zone. Main land use in this region is subsistence agriculture with large fallow areas. As an alternative land-use, forest plantations are under development by the Ghanaian wood processing company DuPaul Wood Treatment Ltd. Labourers from the surrounding villages are employed as permanent or casual plantation workers. Within three forest plantation projects of approximately 6,000 ha, DuPaul offers an area of 164 ha (referred to as Papasi Plantation) - which is mainly planted with Teak (Tectona grandis) - for research purposes. In return, the company expects consultations to improve the management for sustainable timber and pole production with exotic and native tree species. Results: In a first research approach, the Papasi Plantation was assessed in terms of vegetation classification, timber resources (in qualitative and quantitative terms) and soil and site conditions. A permanent sampling plot system was established to enable long-term monitoring of stand dynamics including observation of stand response to silvicultural treatments. Site conditions are ideally suited for Teak and some stands show exceptionally good growth performances. However, poor weed management and a lack of fire control and silvicultural management led to high mortality and poor growth performance of some stands, resulting in relative low overall growth averages. In a second step, a social baseline study was carried out in the surrounding villages and identified landowner conflicts between some villagers and DuPaul, which could be one reason for the fire damages. However, the study also revealed a general interest for collaboration in agroforestry on DuPaul land on both sides. Thirdly, a silvicultural management concept was elaborated and an improved integration of the rural population into DuPaul's forest plantation projects is already initiated. If landowner conflicts can be solved, the development of forest plantations can contribute significantly to the economic income of rural households while environmental benefits provide long-term opportunities for sustainable development of the region. Funding: GTZ supported PPP-Measure, Foundation
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